Hidden Demographics Barriers of the Economic Growth: A Psychometric Approach

This paper examined the hidden demographic barriers of economic growth. The study used a cross-sectional survey researches design. The primary data were collected by using a psychometric scale from 211 individuals who were randomly sampled from the Mwanza and Kagera regions in Tanzania. The data were linearly analysed by the weighted least squares (WLS) and Analysis weighted- automatic linear modelling (AW-ALM), and non-linearly analysed by Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and neural network analysis (NNA). The study found that the main hidden demographic barrier to economic growth is the negative subjective well-being of an individual’s current age and education level. Moreover, the GMM revealed that there is no significant data or regional clusters or classes in the study population. Furthermore, NNA evidenced the most effective predictor of economic growth is age, followed by education. The study concluded that the most hidden demographic factors that hinder economic growth are negative perceptions of an individual on his/her current age and level of education, not the age maturity, and education level. Operationally or practically, the paper implicates several socio-economical policies, mostly the national aging policy (NAP), the National Education and Training policy (NETP), the National Employment Policy (NEP), and regulations /laws on national social security funds schemes at national, regional and global levels. Therefore, the paper recommended that government and other education stakeholders increase the policy commitment on the mathematics, science, and technology subjects to be compulsory for primary and secondary schools, and the extension of the retirement age from 60 years (voluntary) to 65 years (compulsory)

Improved Dividend Estimation from Intraday Quotes

Liquid financial markets, such as the options market of the S&P 500 index, create vast amounts of data every day, i.e., so-called intraday data. However, this highly granular data is often reduced to single-time when used to estimate financial quantities. This under-utilization of the data may reduce the quality of the estimates. In this paper, we study the impacts on estimation quality when using intraday data to estimate dividends. The methodology is based on earlier linear regression (ordinary least squares) estimates, which have been adapted to intraday data. Further, the method is also generalized in two aspects. First, the dividends are expressed as present values of future dividends rather than dividend yields. Second, to account for heteroscedasticity, the estimation methodology was formulated as a weighted least squares, where the weights are determined from the market data. This method is compared with a traditional method on out-of-sample S&P 500 European options market data. The results show that estimations based on intraday data have, with statistical significance, a higher quality than the corresponding single-times estimates. Additionally, the two generalizations of the methodology are shown to improve the estimation quality further.

Jaya algorithm in estimation of P[X > Y] for two parameter Weibull distribution

<abstract> <p>Jaya algorithm is a highly effective recent metaheuristic technique. This article presents a simple, precise, and faster method to estimate stress strength reliability for a two-parameter, Weibull distribution with common scale parameters but different shape parameters. The three most widely used estimation methods, namely the maximum likelihood estimation, least squares, and weighted least squares have been used, and their comparative analysis in estimating reliability has been presented. The simulation studies are carried out with different parameters and sample sizes to validate the proposed methodology. The technique is also applied to real-life data to demonstrate its implementation. The results show that the proposed methodology's reliability estimates are close to the actual values and proceeds closer as the sample size increases for all estimation methods. Jaya algorithm with maximum likelihood estimation outperforms the other methods regarding the bias and mean squared error.</p> </abstract>

Growth curve of Nile tilapia from different families of the AquaAmérica variety

Selection can affect growth, changing performance and asymptotic values. However, there is little information about the growth of families in fish breeding programs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance and growth of families of Nile tilapia AquaAmérica. Twenty AquaAmérica families cultivated in a net cage (13.5 m3) for 181 days were evaluated. The nonlinear Gompertz regression model was fitted to the data by the weighted least squares method, taking the inverse of the variance of weight in different families and at different ages as the weighting variable. The model was adjusted to describe the growth in weight and morphometric characteristics. Two families showed highest (P<0.05) weights at both 133 days (family AA10: 743.2 g; family AA16: 741.2 g) and 181 days (family AA10: 1,422.1 g; family AA16: 1,393.4 g) of the experiment. In both experimental periods, the males showed a heavier weight, with the greatest contrast between the sexes occurring at 181 days. The analysis of the three most contrasting families (AA1, AA9 and AA14) showed that the asymptotic value for weight was higher (P<0.05) in family AA9 (3,926.3 g) than in family AA14 (3,251.6 g), but specific growth rate and age at the inflection point did not differ significantly between families. In conclusion, two of the 20 families were superior; males exhibited a greater growth, mainly in the period of 181 days; and the growth curve differed between the families, especially for asymptotic weight.

Different inference approaches for the estimators of the sushila distribution

In this paper, we order to evaluate via Monte Carlo simulations the performance of sample properties of the estimates of the estimates for Sushila distribution, introduced by Shanker et al. (2013). We consider estimates obtained by six estimation methods, the known approaches of maximum likelihood, moments and Bayesian method, and other less traditional methods: L-moments, ordinary least-squares and weighted least-squares. As a comparison criterion, the biases and the roots of mean-squared errors were used through nine scenarios with samples ranging from 30 to 300 (every 30rd). In addition, we also considered a simulation and a real data application to illustrate the applicability of the proposed estimators as well as the computation time to get the estimates. In this case, the Bayesian method was also considered. The aim of the study was to find an estimation method to be considered as a better alternative or at least interchangeable with the traditional maximum likelihood method considering small or large sample sizes and with low computational cost.

Performance Analyses of a RAIM Algorithm for Kalman Filter with GPS and NavIC Constellations

This paper evaluates the performance of an integrity monitoring algorithm of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) for the Kalman filter (KF), termed KF receiver autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM). The algorithm checks measurement inconsistencies in the range domain and requires Schmidt KF (SKF) as the navigation processor. First, realistic carrier-smoothed pseudorange measurement error models of GNSS are integrated into KF RAIM, overcoming an important limitation of prior work. More precisely, the error covariance matrix for fault detection is modified to capture the temporal variations of individual errors with different time constants. Uncertainties of the model parameters are also taken into account. Performance of the modified KF RAIM is then analyzed with the simulated signals of the global positioning system and navigation with Indian constellation for different phases of aircraft flight. Weighted least squares (WLS) RAIM used for comparison purposes is shown to have lower protection levels. This work, however, is important because KF-based integrity monitors are required to ensure the reliability of advanced navigation methods, such as multi-sensor integration and vector receivers. A key finding of the performance analyses is as follows. Innovation-based tests with an extended KF navigation processor confuse slow ramp faults with residual measurement errors that the filter estimates, leading to missed detection. RAIM with SKF, on the other hand, can successfully detect such faults. Thus, it offers a promising solution to developing KF integrity monitoring algorithms in the range domain. The modified KF RAIM completes processing in time on a low-end computer. Some salient features are also studied to gain insights into its working principles.

Comparison of Five Methods to Estimate the Parameters for the Three-Parameter Lindley Distribution with Application to Life Data

We have studied one of the most common distributions, namely, Lindley distribution, which is an important continuous mixed distribution with great ability to represent different systems. We studied this distribution with three parameters because of its high flexibility in modelling life data. The parameters were estimated by five different methods, namely, maximum likelihood estimation, ordinary least squares, weighted least squares, maximum product of spacing, and Cramér-von Mises. Simulation experiments were performed with different sample sizes and different parameter values. The different methods were compared on the generated data by mean square error and mean absolute error. In addition, we compared the methods for real data, which represent COVID-19 data in Iraq/Anbar Province.

Flutter Derivatives Identification and Uncertainty Quantification for Bridge Decks Based on the Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm and Bootstrap Technique

This paper presents a novel parameter identification and uncertainty quantification method for flutter derivatives estimation of bridge decks. The proposed approach is based on free-decay vibration records of a sectional model in wind tunnel tests, which consists of parameter identification by a heuristic optimization algorithm in the sense of weighted least squares and uncertainty quantification by a bootstrap technique. The novel contributions of the method are on three fronts. Firstly, weighting factors associated with vertical and torsional motion in the objective function are determined more reasonably using an iterative procedure rather than preassigned. Secondly, flutter derivatives are identified using a hybrid heuristic and classical optimization method, which integrates a modified artificial bee colony algorithm with the Powell’s algorithm. Thirdly, a statistical bootstrap technique is used to quantify the uncertainties of flutter derivatives. The advantages of the proposed method with respect to other methods are faster and more accurate achievement of the global optimum, and refined uncertainty quantification in the identified flutter derivatives. The effectiveness and reliability of the proposed method are validated through noisy data of a numerically simulated thin plate and experimental data of a bridge deck sectional model.