Dynamical-Empirical forecast for the Indian monsoon rainfall using the NCEP Coupled Modelling System – Application for real time monsoon forecast

The performance of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) operational coupled modeling system known as the Climate Forecast System (CFS) is evaluated for the prediction of all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) during June to September (JJAS). The evaluation is based on the hindcast initialized during March, April and May with 15 ensemble members each for 25 years period from 1981 to 2005.The CFS’s hindcast climatology during JJAS of March (lag-3), April (lag-2) and May (lag-1) initial conditions show mostly an identical pattern of rainfall similar to that of observed climatology with both the rainfall maxima (over the west-coast of India and over the head Bay of Bengal region) well captured, with a signification correlation coefficient between the forecast and observed climatology over the Indian monsoon region (bounded by 50°E-110°E and 10°S-35°N) covering Indian land mass and adjoining oceanic region. Although the CFS forecast rainfall is overestimated over the Indian monsoon region, the land only rainfall amount is underestimated compared to observation. The skill of the prediction of monsoon rainfall over the Indian land mass is found to be relatively weak, although it is significant at 95% with a correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.44 with April ensembles.By using CFS predicted JJAS rainfall over the regions of significant CCs, a hybrid dynamical-empirical model is developed for the real time prediction of AISMR, whose skill is found to be much higher (CC significant above 99% level) than the raw CFS forecasts. The dynamical-empirical hybrid forecast applied on real time for 2009 and 2010 monsoons are found to be much closer to the observed AISMR. Thus, when the hybrid model is used there is a correction not only to the sign of the actual forecast as in the case of 2009 monsoon but also to its magnitude and hence can be used as a better tool for the real time prediction of AISMR.

Treaty Stories: Reclaiming the Unbroken History of Lac Courte Oreilles Ojibwe Sovereignty

Ojibwe leaders negotiated treaties with the United States amid nineteenth-century encroachments on their territory. These treaties, which were more than tools of dispossession, enfolded and extended aadizookanag (sacred stories) in agreements that embodied Ojibwe relationships with land, language, sacred history, ceremony, and kin. Federal and state policy makers, fueled by the desire for Indian land and resources, attempted to unravel these relationships in the decades that followed. By continuing to live out through labor and stories their relationships with the woods, waters, and manoomin (wild rice) beds of Anishinaabewaki, the Lac Courte Oreilles Ojibweg kept their treaties and their sovereignty alive.

G-Men, Green Men, and Red Land: Extraterrestrial Miscreants, Federal Jurisdiction, and Exceptional Space

In the 1970s a string of cattle mutilations grabbed national attention. Thousands of cows in twenty-one states were turning up dead under suspicious circumstances. The culprits left no tire tracks or footprints, only exsanguinated cows missing trademark body parts. Many members of the public suspected (and still suspect) aliens were responsible. This article analyzes FBI files on the mutilations and reveals the central role Indian land played in the FBI’s search for the cow killers. It then wields Indian land to launch an Indigenous critique of settler speculations about the alien.