Complex decision-making strategies in a stock market experiment explained as the combination of few simple strategies

Many studies have shown that there are regularities in the way human beings make decisions. However, our ability to obtain models that capture such regularities and can accurately predict unobserved decisions is still limited. We tackle this problem in the context of individuals who are given information relative to the evolution of market prices and asked to guess the direction of the market. We use a networks inference approach with stochastic block models (SBM) to find the model and network representation that is most predictive of unobserved decisions. Our results suggest that users mostly use recent information (about the market and about their previous decisions) to guess. Furthermore, the analysis of SBM groups reveals a set of strategies used by players to process information and make decisions that is analogous to behaviors observed in other contexts. Our study provides and example on how to quantitatively explore human behavior strategies by representing decisions as networks and using rigorous inference and model-selection approaches.

Mate choice enhances pro-environmentalism

Previous research shows that altruistic behaviour is important in mate choice. A plethora of research shows that people are attracted to altruistic mates, and in turn, display altruistic behaviours towards those they find attractive. However, most of this research has focused on everyday altruism. Here, we apply this theoretical framework to pro-environmental behaviours, which are important altruistic behaviours, considering there is a time cost involved in engaging in such behaviours. In addition, encouraging people to engage in pro-environmental behaviours has great implications for the protection of our planet. Here, across two experiments, we successfully show that engaging in pro-environmental behaviours can increase one’s desirability in the mating market (experiment 1, n = 157) and that people display a motivation to engage in pro-environmental behaviours in the presence of attractive, opposite sex targets (experiment 2, n= 307). These are exciting and novel research findings, whereby we show that we can increase pro-environmental behaviours via mate choice motivation and also demonstrate their positive role in mate evaluation. These findings have implications for marketing and increasing environmental behaviour through the lens of evolutionary theory.

Experience Does Not Eliminate Bubbles: Experimental Evidence

We study the role of investor experience in the formation of asset price bubbles. We conduct a call market experiment in which participants trade assets with each other and a learning-to-forecast experiment in which participants only forecast future prices (while trade based on these forecasts is computerized). Each experiment comprises three treatments varying the information that participants receive about the fundamental value. Each experimental market is repeated three times. Throughout, we observe sizable bubbles that persist despite participant experience. Our findings in the call market experiment contrast with those in the literature. Our findings in the learning-to-forecast experiment are novel.

Kajian Terhadap Kecenderungan Aspek Visual Dalam Perancangan Produk Mode Berbasis Tenun Gedhog Khas Tuban

Abstract- Indonesia has a lot of cultural diversity which able to support the sustainability of the Creative Industries. Among them is gedhog woven, a traditional weaving cloth. Compared to other types of weaving such as ikat or songket, gedhog woven still lack in popularity in the consumer market. However, gedhog woven has the opportunity of further development into a weaving-based product in the fashion industry to aim high recognization in society. Consumer interests and perceptions of weaving-based products are analyzed through qualitative method in order to understand the consumer market. Experiment also conducted to obtain the final form of fashion products made from gedhog woven material. Product diversification refers to visual aspects in design such as shape, color, size, and proportion. Analysis of tendencies towards fashion product from woven materials obtained through this research. This can be utilized both for the foundation of further research as well as improving the quality and value of selling products in the consumer market.Keywords: visual aspect, fashion, gedhog woven Abstrak- Indonesia memiliki banyak kekayaan budaya yang dapat mendukung keberlangsungan Dari Industri Kreatif. Salah satunya adalah wastra nusantara berupa tenun gedhog. Dibandingkan dengan jenis tenun yang lain seperti ikat atau songket, tenun gedhog masih kurang popularitasnya di dalam pasar konsumen. Meski demikian, tenun gedhog tetap memiliki peluang pengembangan lebih lanjut menjadi sebuah produk dalam industri mode supaya makin dikenal oleh masyarakat. Minat dan persepsi konsumen terhadap produk berbasis tenun dianalisis melalui metodologi kualitatif dalam rangka memahami keinginan pasar. Selain itu, dilakukan pula eksperimen untuk memperoleh bentuk akhir produk mode yang terbuat dari material tenun gedhog. Diversifikasi produk mengacu kepada aspek visual dalam desain seperti bentuk, warna, ukuran, dan proporsi. Melalui penelitian ini diperoleh analisis dari kecenderungan masyarakat terhadap pemilihan produk mode yang terbuat dari material tenun. Hal ini dapat dimanfaatkan baik bagi landasan penelitian selanjutnya maupun bagi peningkatan kualitas dan nilai jual produk dalam pasar konsumen.Kata kunci: aspek visual, mode, tenun gedhog

Star Wars - an episodes battle

Mlodinow (2008) proposed a crazy market experiment: to release the same film under two titles: Star Wars: Episode A and Star Wars: Episode B. Their marketing campaigns and distribution schedule are identical except by their titles on trailers and ads. He looks at the first 20,000 moviegoers and record the film they choose to see. He claims it is most probable the lead never changes, and it is 88 times more likely that one of the two films will be int the lead through all 20,000 customers than it is that the lead continuously seesaw. We present a detailed mathematical explanation for Mlodinow claims.

Frequent Job Changes can Signal Poor Work Attitude and Reduce Employability

We study whether employment history provides information about a worker’s “work attitude”, that is, the tendency to act cooperatively and reliably in the workplace. We conjecture that, holding all else equal, frequent job changes can indicate poor work attitude and that this information is transmitted through employment histories. We find support for this hypothesis across three studies that employ complementary laboratory, field, and survey experiments, as well as in labor market panel data. First, a tightly controlled laboratory labor market experiment demonstrates that prior employment information allows employers to screen for reliable and cooperative workers and that these workers obtain better employment outcomes. Secondly, we conduct a field experiment that varies the frequency of job changes in applicants’ resumes and find that those with fewer job changes receive substantially more callbacks from prospective employers. Thirdly, a survey experiment with human resources professionals confirms that the resume manipulations in the field study create different perceptions of work attitude and that these largely account for the callback differences. Finally, we find evidence consistent with our hypothesized relationships in empirical labor market data. Our work highlights the potential importance of job history as a signal of work attitude in labor markets, and points to a potential cost of frequent job changes.