A Novel Online Education Reform Model Based on Risky Decision-Making under the Situation of Internet Plus

In the new situation of Internet plus, information technology has been widely applied in education, and hence online education has attracted wide attention from all walks of life. Today’s society is a risk society, and risk is everywhere. Online education reform is also risky, which is determined by many reasons. Some risks will cause certain losses to the online education reform, so based on risky decision-making, it is necessary to carry out online education reform under the new situation of Internet plus. At first, the risky decision-making in online education reform is analyzed, which is the risk of online education reform in risk society and the allocation logic of online education reform. Then, taking interval type-2 fuzzy logic (IT2FL) as the information environment, this study proposes the optimal risky decision-making method based on IT2FL utility functions, IT2FL entropy, and risk preference factor of online education reform to solve the multipath risky decision-making problem of online education reform. Finally, the experimental results show that, in the risky decision-making model, the decision-maker’s risk preference has an impact on the path weight and the ranking of the scheme, and the idea has a certain reference role for risky decision-making. Compared with the three benchmarks, the proposed method has the fewest ranking time with the same ranking results.

Risk Aversion and Timber Harvest Strategies: A Case Study of Nonindustrial Private Forest Management in Louisiana

Forest owners face many challenges regarding forest management due to the long period from planting to harvest. Along with the economic and environmental factors that influence management actions, the owners' attitude to risk plays a crucial role in forest management decisions. This study shows that understanding the effects of the owner's risk preference for management actions is an important step to form an effective forest policy. The objectives of the study are to (1) assess the economic advantage of forest management alternatives over a range of risk aversion coefficients and (2) determine the financial incentive (risk premium) corresponding to a forest owners' risk attitude. We implemented the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function framework to evaluate a set of fertilization, herbicide, and thinning management alternatives at mid-rotation loblolly pine plantations in Louisiana. Results from this study indicate that forest owner's risk preference affects their decision to select management actions. Financial incentives are substantially different for specific management alternatives between risk-neutral and risk-averse forest owners. The results can guide forest policy development where agencies can modify financial assistance programs to improve the adoption of management actions.

Institutes of Financial Socialization of Russian Students

The paper examines the factors influencing the financial socialization of Russian students. It provides an overview of research on the impact of family institutions (parental household), financial independence, and the maturity of financial behavior on the financial socialization of young people. We analyze the relationships between basic socio-demographic characteristics of Russian students (gender, age, marital status), their behavioral characteristics (risk preference, propensity for offense or unethical behavior, prodigality, credulity), and socio-economic characteristics (level of financial status, financial independence, financial maturity). The empirical part of the study is based on the data of the author's survey of 1291 students from 17 Russian universities, processed by methods of statistical, correlation, and econometric analysis. To assess the level of financial well-being, we develop an original methodology where the financial situation shows the availability of goods and services that are unaffordable to most members of this group. Likewise, financial maturity is the students' proficiency in financial instruments poorly mastered by the majority of other respondents. The survey revealed a significant financial dependence of Russian students on their parents and their low level of financial maturity. We found an increased level of credulity and a low level of propensity for offense or unethical behavior; established positive correlation between the risk preference and the propensity for offense or unethical behavior, between the level of credulity and prodigality. We established that as financial dependence on parents gradually decreases, young people make more mature financial decisions, and their growing risk preference is replaced by a shift to more prudent financial practices. In groups where young people provide for themselves, their assessments of their financial situation rise sharply from a certain point, and the level of prodigality decreases. The constructed model of ordered logit regression showed a significant positive effect of age, marital and employment status, risk preference and level of financial maturity, as well as a significant negative effect of prodigality and credulity on financial independence of Russian students. The research results are applicable for the further development of theoretical and methodological approaches to the study of effective financial behavior of young people and the management of student financial socialization processes.

Research on the Tournament Incentive Mechanism of the Safety Behavior for Construction Workers: Considering Multiple Heterogeneity

The unsafe behavior of construction workers is one of the most important and direct causes of safety accidents. Managers usually develop effective incentives aimed at regulating worker safety behavior. Due to the large number of workers in construction projects, there are multiple differences in fairness preference, risk preference and ability level, which will lead to the complex effect of the traditional mechanism to regulate workers’ safety behavior. In order to improve the effectiveness of incentive measures for worker safety behavior, this paper takes into account the multiple differences of individual workers’ fairness preference, risk preference and ability level, based on the tournament mechanism to construct a competition incentive model. By designing a tournament reward and salary distribution for heterogeneous workers, the occurrence of unsafe behaviors can be reduced. The study found that in terms of the optimal level of safety investment, workers with risk aversion attitude generally invest higher than that of workers with risk preference, no matter whether they have a strong fairness preference or not; In terms of the distribution of tournament rewards, workers with a risk aversion attitude and a higher level of fairness preference need to be given higher incentives.

The Influence of Host Country’s Environmental Regulation on Enterprises’ Risk Preference of Multinational Investment

At present, China is in an important period of promoting high-quality economic development. In order to promote enterprises to “go global” and realize high-quality foreign investment, China advocates enterprises to abide by the environmental protection laws and regulations of the host country and standardize their environmental protection behaviors in foreign investment cooperation. However, the impact of the host country’s environmental regulation on Chinese enterprise’s multinational investment risk preference has not been paid enough attention. This paper makes an empirical analysis on how the host country’s environmental regulation affects the enterprises’ risk preference of multinational investment (MIRP) by using the samples of A-share listed companies in China from 2010 to 2018 and emphatically examines the moderating effects of enterprise’s green technology innovation and social responsibility on the relationship between host country’s environmental regulation and enterprises’ MIRP. It is found that, on the whole, the environmental regulation of the host country will significantly promote the enterprises’ MIRP. The green technology innovation will positively moderate the impact of the environmental regulation of host country on enterprises’ MIRP, while the engagement of corporate social responsibility will inhibit this positive impact.

What are the chances? How descriptions of probability affect risky decisions

<p>People make different decisions when they know the odds of an event occurring, (e.g. told 10% chance of an earthquake that year) than when they draw on only their own experience (e.g. living in a city with, on average, one earthquake every 10 years). It may be that when we make decisions based on our past experience (decisions from experience) we are more likely to choose a risky option when it can lead to the biggest win and avoid it when it can lead to the biggest loss, this effect is called the Extreme-Outcome rule. Across three Experiments we tested the Extreme-Outcome rule by having participants make repeated choices between either safe or risky options which had the same expected value. In each experiment, we varied the magnitude of the reinforcer’s participants could win in both an Experience condition and a condition that had both description and experience information. In Experiment 1 where we had two reinforcer sizes (small and large) we found an Extreme-Outcome effect in the Experience condition, but not the Description-Experience condition. In Experiment 2 we tested a prediction of the Extreme-Outcome rule that participants would be sensitive to the best and worst outcome by adding another reinforcer size (reinforcers were small, medium and large) and therefore on some trials neither alternative included an extreme outcome. We also removed zero as a potential outcome to investigate whether zero aversion might be driving the effect of reinforcer magnitude in the Experience condition. We did not find response patterns consistent with an Extreme-Outcome rule in the Experience condition. Instead, participants were least risk seeking when the reinforcer was small, but there was no difference in levels of risk seeking between the medium and large reinforcer trials. In other words, there was an effect of the low-extreme outcome but not the high-extreme outcome. Like Experiment 1, in the Description-Experience condition risk preference was not influenced by reinforcer size, but the absolute levels were higher. To investigate whether this increase in risk preference was due to removing the zero, in Experiment 3 we manipulated whether zero was present or absent. When zero was absent, risk preference was not influenced by the size of the reinforcer in the Description-Experience condition, but there was an effect of the low-extreme outcome when zero was present. We also found an effect of the low extreme outcome in the Experience condition regardless of whether zero was present or absent. Overall, these findings suggest the Extreme-Outcome rule needs to be modified to take into account the effect of the low extreme but not the high extreme outcome.</p>

What are the chances? How descriptions of probability affect risky decisions

<p>People make different decisions when they know the odds of an event occurring, (e.g. told 10% chance of an earthquake that year) than when they draw on only their own experience (e.g. living in a city with, on average, one earthquake every 10 years). It may be that when we make decisions based on our past experience (decisions from experience) we are more likely to choose a risky option when it can lead to the biggest win and avoid it when it can lead to the biggest loss, this effect is called the Extreme-Outcome rule. Across three Experiments we tested the Extreme-Outcome rule by having participants make repeated choices between either safe or risky options which had the same expected value. In each experiment, we varied the magnitude of the reinforcer’s participants could win in both an Experience condition and a condition that had both description and experience information. In Experiment 1 where we had two reinforcer sizes (small and large) we found an Extreme-Outcome effect in the Experience condition, but not the Description-Experience condition. In Experiment 2 we tested a prediction of the Extreme-Outcome rule that participants would be sensitive to the best and worst outcome by adding another reinforcer size (reinforcers were small, medium and large) and therefore on some trials neither alternative included an extreme outcome. We also removed zero as a potential outcome to investigate whether zero aversion might be driving the effect of reinforcer magnitude in the Experience condition. We did not find response patterns consistent with an Extreme-Outcome rule in the Experience condition. Instead, participants were least risk seeking when the reinforcer was small, but there was no difference in levels of risk seeking between the medium and large reinforcer trials. In other words, there was an effect of the low-extreme outcome but not the high-extreme outcome. Like Experiment 1, in the Description-Experience condition risk preference was not influenced by reinforcer size, but the absolute levels were higher. To investigate whether this increase in risk preference was due to removing the zero, in Experiment 3 we manipulated whether zero was present or absent. When zero was absent, risk preference was not influenced by the size of the reinforcer in the Description-Experience condition, but there was an effect of the low-extreme outcome when zero was present. We also found an effect of the low extreme outcome in the Experience condition regardless of whether zero was present or absent. Overall, these findings suggest the Extreme-Outcome rule needs to be modified to take into account the effect of the low extreme but not the high extreme outcome.</p>