Risk Perception, Preventive Behavior, and Medical Care Avoidance among American Older Adults During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Objectives: This study investigated the predictors of risk perception and its effect on older adults’ preventive behavior and/or medical care avoidance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Older respondents (age >50 years) from the MIT COVID-19 Preventive Health Survey reported their social distancing, hand washing, mask wearing, and medical care avoidance between July and October 2020 ( n = 4395). Structural equation models were used. Results: Significant predictors of higher risk perception were female gender, older age, poorer health, city residency, personally knowing someone who had COVID-19, and correct knowledge of vaccine/treatment. Higher risk perception was subsequently associated with higher frequency/probability of practicing preventive behavior and/or avoiding medical care. Knowledge had the strongest path coefficient with risk perception. Discussion: Disseminating correct information to older adults could help them evaluate infection risk accurately. Educational programs on the precautions implemented at clinical settings to ensure patient safety may encourage older adults to seek timely medical care.

G-GERT network model of online public opinion reversal based on kernel and grey degree

PurposeIn recent years, online public opinion reversal incidents have been occurring frequently, which has increased the complexity of the evolution of online public opinion, and they have become a difficult issue for public opinion management and control. It is of great significance to explore the regularity of online public opinion reversal.Design/methodology/approachCombined with the grey characteristics of online public opinion information, a grey graphical evaluation review technique (G-GERT) network model is constructed based on kernel and grey degree, and the frequency, probability and time of online public opinion reversal nodes are calculated using C-marking method and Z-marking method.FindingsThroughout the online public opinion reversal events, there are all repeated outbreak nodes occurring, so the authors regard the repeated occurrence of outbreak nodes as reversal. According to the average frequency, probability and time of repeated outbreak nodes in the G-GERT network model, the authors predict the corresponding key information of reversal. It can simulate the evolution process of public opinion events accurately.Originality/valueThe G-GERT network model based on kernel and grey degree reveals the regulation of public opinion reversal, predicts the frequency, probability and time of reversal nodes, which are the most concerned and difficult issues for decision-makers. The model provides the decision basis and reference for government decision-making departments.

METHODS FOR THE SCHEMATIZATION OF THE OPERATIONAL LOADING OF THE FREIGHT CAR

The world trend, recently, is the creation of a high-speed cargo rolling stock for speeds with 160 km / h. In these condition, the durability of the structure of the cargo car are relevant. In the process of movement in the design of the car, voltages occur, variables in time. Under the action of alternating voltages in the design elements, the process of gradual accumulation of damage, leading to the formation of microscopic crack, and then to its development and subsequent sudden destruction - metal fatigue. One of the main properties of the wagon is the ability to withstand operational loads acting on it while maintaining this ability without destruction at all stages of the life cycle. The assessment of the bearing capacity is determined by the results of the undercarriage tests, the purpose of which is the definition and assessment of the reserve coefficient of fatigue resistance of the equivalent reduced amplitude of dy-namic stresses. As a rule, dynamic stresses are random due to the perturbing effect on the side of the rail path on the wheeled pairs, which are also random. Therefore, an important section of the study is the choice of methods for obtaining, processing and analyzing experimental data. Improving the reliability of test results is achieved by applying more advanced recording methods and processing results. To estimate the level of loading of the cargo car, methods are used based on the replacement of a real random process by some schematized process, which in terms of the accumulation of fatigue damage should be equivalent to a real process. Of the variety of schematics methods, two methods are distinguished - the method of complete cycles and the rain method, which most fully reflect the real process. The advantage of the "rain" method is the ability to process the process in real time. However, the algorithm of the "rain" method is quite complicated and does not allow processing large amounts of information. In this regard, the method of maximum discharges was proposed, which is a type of full cycles method and allows you to process an unlimited amount of information online. The schematic process is divided into classes - voltage amplitudes values. Depending on the distribution of voltage amplitudes in classes, the frequency (probability) of amplitude in the class is established. The reduced amplitude of the dynamic voltage is defined as the amount of products of the likelihood of entering each class on the average magnitude of the voltage amplitude in the class. Key words: cargo car, process, dynamic, voltage, amplitude.

Socio-economic factors in the spread of SARS-COV-2 across Russian regions

Relevance. The worldwide spread of a new infection SARS-CoV-2 makes relevant the analysis of the socio-economic factors that make modern civilization vulnerable to previously unknown diseases. In this regard, the development of mathematical models describing the spread of pandemics like COVID-19 and the identification of socio-economic factors affecting the epidemiological situation in regions is an important research task. Research objective. This study seeks to develop a mathematical model describing the spread of COVID-19, thus enabling the analysis of the main characteristics of the spread of the disease and assessment of the impact of various socio-economic factors. Data and methods. The study relies on the official statistical data on the pandemic presented on coronavirus sites in Russia and other countries, Yandex DataLens dataset service, as well as data from the Federal State Statistics Service. The data were analyzed by using a correlation analysis of COVID-19 incidence parameters and socio-economic characteristics of regions; multivariate regression – to determine the parameters of the probabilistic mathematical model of the spread of the pandemic proposed by the authors; clustering – to group the regions with similar incidence characteristics and exclude the regions with abnormal parameters from the analysis. Results. A mathematical model of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is proposed. The parameters of this model are determined on the basis of official statistics on morbidity, in particular the frequency (probability) of infections, the reliability of the disease detection, the probability density of the disease duration, and its average value. Based on the specificity of COVID-19, Russia regions are clustered according to disease-related characteristics. For clusters that include regions with typical disease-related characteristics, a correlation analysis of the relationship between the number of cases and the rate of infection ( with the socio-economic characteristics of the region is carried out. The most significant factors associated with the parameters of the pandemic are identified. Conclusions. The proposed mathematical model of the pandemic and the established correlations between the parameters of the epidemiological situation and the socio-economic characteristics of the regions can be used to make informed decisions regarding the key risk factors and their impact on the course of the pandemic.

Gravity as the Sole Fundamental Force

We had explained electromagnetism by gravity before a recent publication in this Journal, in which we further incorporated the nuclear strong force in the framework of gravity. This paper, summarizing our cumulative results, continues to integrate the nuclear weak force with gravity, where we go by the following line of logic: Planck’s formula shows energy E = frequency = probability = wave; hence quantum waves have energies and the Universe is a diagonal spacetime manifold containing {(particle pi, electromagnetic wave λ (pi))}. By Feynman’s analysis on electromagnetic mass, we assume that the distribution of E over (p, λ (p)) is (3/4 , 1/4)E. Then Newton’s gravitational acceleration formula yields E = 1.6 × the observed energy o f p, so that p exists only for a duration of 5/8 λ/c over the cycle [0, λ/c], such as evidenced in quantum tunneling, opening the possibility for λ (p) to be combined with other waves forming new particle(s) for t > 58/ λ/c. By the time ratios of two frames in General Relativity we deduce neutron’s lifetime, and by the Higgs mechanism we show neutron’s decay products.

MODELING OF RANDOM EVENTS USING A SPREADSHEET

The article discusses the methods and features of modeling random events. On this basis, the possibility of building simulation models and simulation experiments in a spreadsheet environment is shown. In the presented tasks, the characteristics of random events are considered: probability, frequency, probability distribution. The publication reflects the author’s personal experience of teaching the courses “Computer simulation”, “Modeling of processes and systems” in South Ural State University of Humanities and Education, as well as experience as an informatics teacher.

A Study on the Evacuation Characteristics of Large-Span Structures Buildings

The construction of large-span structures has been continuously increasing domestically since 2005, but despite this trend, there are no existing fire prevention regulations and building standards for large-span structures. Accordingly, as a basic research for coming up with evacuation safety techniques for large-span structures, this study sought to derive the evacuation characteristics of building occupants in case of a fire in large-span structures by formulating the definition of large-span structure and analyzing fire cases in spatial buildings at home and abroad. It is expected that the findings of this study will be utilized as basic materials for fire scenarios that consider fire scenario application criteria (human security standards, capacity calculation standards) as well as multiple risk factors such as frequency, probability, and combustion expansion and spread based on the evacuation characteristics derived from this study.

Study on Changes of Vehicle Driving Behavior Characteristics for Alcohol Used Drivers

Drunk driving is proved to be dangerous for traffic transportation safety. However, there are still no specific conclusions about what changes do drinking make to each kind of driving behaviors. This paper set out a drunk states induce program and a simulated driving experiment to measure the data about driving speed, overspeed driving probability, brake frequency, probability of deceleration for avoidance and probability of running red lights when the drivers were in different degree of drunk states. Results showed that driving speed increases significantly only in state of heavy drunk while decreases slightly in state of moderate drunk. Overspeed probability grows higher as the drivers drink more. Brake frequency increases slightly in state of light drunk, but has no obvious change in state of moderate drunk, however decreases significantly in state of heavy drunk. Probability of deceleration for avoidance decreases a little in state of light drunk but significantly in state of heavy drunk, however increases in state of moderate dunk. Probability of running red lights increases significantly only in state of heavy drunk, but has no obvious change in both states of light drunk and moderate drunk. All these support a conclusion that drinking has different influences on each kind of driving behaviors, which perform differently for traffic transportation safety. Judgments for drunk driving related issues should be decided on each specific matter.