Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Change Human Mobility Equally Worldwide? Cross-Country Cluster Analysis

The paper aims to identify groups of countries characterised by a similar human mobility reaction to COVID-19 and investigate whether the differences between distinguished clusters result from the stringency of government anti-COVID-19 policy or are linked to another macroeconomic factor. We study how COVID-19 affects human mobility patterns, employing daily data of 124 countries. The analysis is conducted for the first and second waves of the novel coronavirus pandemic separately. We group the countries into four clusters in terms of stringency level of government anti-COVID-19 policy and six mobility categories, using k-means clustering. Moreover, by applying the Kruskal–Wallis test and Wilcoxon rank-sum pairwise comparison test, we assess the existence of significant differences between the distinguished clusters. We confirm that the pandemic has caused significant human mobility changes. The study shows that a more stringent anti-COVID-19 policy is related to the greater decline in mobility. Moreover, we reveal that COVID-19-driven mobility changes are also triggered by other factors not related to the pandemic. We find the Human Development Index (HDI) and its components as driving factors of the magnitude of mobility changes during COVID-19. The greater human mobility reaction to COVID-19 refers to the country groups representing higher HDI levels.

Distress Levels of Parents of Children with Neurodevelopmental Disorders during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Comparison between Italy and Australia

Parents of children with a neurodevelopmental disorder (NDD) report higher levels of distress compared to those of typically developing children. Distress levels may be heightened by the restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is unclear whether distress levels of parents varied by the diagnosis of neurodevelopmental disorder in children during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to investigate whether parental distress was influenced by the type of NDD. Participants were from Australia (N = 196) and Italy (N = 200); the parents of children aged 3–18 were invited to complete an online self-reported survey which included the 6-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K6) to determine parental distress. The results show that intellectual or learning disorder (ILD) is a major contributor to parental distress compared to other NDDs in both Australia and Italy. Moreover, the worsening of symptomatic changes in children with NDDs was significantly associated with parental distress. The differences between the two countries in terms of the pandemic impact, however, were not statistically significant. The results suggest that intervention strategies need to be tailored for individual clinical information and factor in the society’s stringency level of anti-contagion policies to improve parental wellbeing.

Can Environmental Regulations Promote Greenhouse Gas Abatement in OECD Countries? Command-and-Control vs. Market-Based Policies

In response to global warming, greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement has been one of the top priorities of governments, and a large variety of environmental regulation policies have been implemented in past decades. Using panel data from 27 OECD countries over the period of 2005–2012, this study measures and compares the stringency level of command-and-control and market-based environmental regulations. The differentiated impacts and indirect effects of environmental regulations on GHG emissions are tested empirically. The results show that: (1) Both command-and-control and market-based environmental regulations have effects on GHG abatement in OECD countries, and there is a non-linear relationship between environmental regulations and GHG discharge, in which stringent command-and-control environmental regulations and mild market-based regulation policies are preferred; (2) Command-and-control environmental regulations reduce GHG emissions by improving the technological level, rather than the energy consumption structure. In contrast, market-based environmental regulations can promote GHG abatement through the intermediary effects of both technological progress and the energy consumption structure. The findings provide implications for OECD countries to further reduce GHG emissions.

Stringency of Movement Restrictions Linked With Higher Retail Food Prices but Not Overall Prices for All Consumer Goods During COVID-19 Pandemic

Objectives The COVID-19 crisis has disrupted economies and health systems across the globe and has brought substantial challenges for food systems. Government responses key to minimizing disease spread have included a number of movement restriction policies (e.g., school closures, stay at home measures, etc.). Such policies have impacted food consumption and purchasing behaviours and have harmed much of the face-to-face type of labour required for food retailing, which in turn may have impacted the affordability of diets. We use evidence from 133 countries to investigate the association between stringency in movement restriction policies and retail price levels for food and other consumer goods. Methods We use the International Monetary Fund's monthly national consumer price index (CPI), and food and non-alcoholic beverage index (FCPI), as well as a ratio of FCPI to CPI—the food price index (FPI)—for 133 countries from January 2017 to November 2020. Data on stringency in movement restriction policies and COVID-19 cases and mortality per million were obtained from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, respectively. Fixed effects regression models were used to estimate the association between stringency of COVID-19 movement restrictions and monthly differences in 2020 retail price levels (from average 2017–2019 levels) of foods and other consumer goods, while controlling for pandemic severity in each country and month. Results Regression models yielded a positive and significant relationship between stringency level and FCPI level (coeff. = 1.24–1.91; 95% CIs: 0.25–2.79) or FPI level (coeff. = 1.24–2.14; 95% CIs: 0.60–2.53). Alternatively, stringency level was either negatively associated with CPI level (coeff. = −0.57; 95% CI: −1.06 – −0.07) or not significantly associated with CPI level. Conclusions Government response stringency in COVID-19 movement restriction policies is linked with higher retail food price levels. Governments could consider implementing these policies alongside other measures (e.g., food assistance) to mitigate negative spillovers into the domain of food security and nutrition. Funding Sources This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and UKAid through the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office of the UK.

Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan

The multifaceted destructions caused by COVID-19 have been compared to that of World War II. What makes the situation even more complicated is the ambiguity about the duration and ultimate spread of the pandemic. It is especially critical for the governments, healthcare systems, and economic sectors to have an estimate of the future of this disaster. By using different mathematical approaches, including the classical susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its derivatives, many investigators have tried to predict the outbreak of COVID-19. In this study, we simulated the epidemic in Isfahan province of Iran for the period from Feb 14th to April 11th and also forecasted the remaining course with three scenarios that differed in terms of the stringency level of social distancing. Despite the prediction of disease course in short-term intervals, the constructed SIR model was unable to forecast the actual spread and pattern of epidemic in the long term. Remarkably, most of the published SIR models developed to predict COVID-19 for other communities, suffered from the same inconformity. The SIR models are based on assumptions that seem not to be true in the case of the COVID-19 epidemic. Hence, more sophisticated modeling strategies and detailed knowledge of the biomedical and epidemiological aspects of the disease are needed to forecast the pandemic.

Measuring the effectiveness of COVID-19 containment policies in Italian regions: are we doing enough?

A successful fight against COVID-19 greatly depends on citizens’ adherence to the restrictive measures, which may not suffice alone. Making use of a containment index, data on sanctions, and Google’s movement trends across Italian regions, complemented by other sources, we investigate the extent to which compliance with the mobility limitations has affected the number of deaths over time in the period from the 24th of February 2020 to the 9th of November 2020, by using panel data for Italian regions, analysed through a negative binomial regression method. We also differentiated the study period, estimating two distinct models on two subsamples: until the 13th of September and since the 14th of September. In so doing, we show how the pandemic dynamics have changed between the first and the second wave of the emergency. Our results highlight that the importance of the restrictive measures and of citizens’ accord on their abidance has greatly increased since the end of the summer, also because the stringency level of the adopted measures has critically declined. Informing citizens about the effects and purposes of the restrictive measures is of paramount importance, especially in the current phase of the pandemic.

The Impact of Tax and Expenditure Limitations on Municipal Revenue Volatility

Stable revenue flows are paramount for policy makers at all levels of government in order to effectively and efficiently provide goods and services to constituents. This work examines the relationship between tax and expenditure limitations (TELs) and municipal revenue volatility. The current literature suggests that more stringently binding TELs at the state level are associated with greater levels of revenue volatility. This work tests whether this finding extends to the local level of government as well. Examining ninety-nine municipalities over eight years (2004–2011), this work provides evidence that the stringency level of TELs is associated with reduced fluctuations in municipal revenue streams.

Selection of candidate materials for reactor pressure vessels: Application of irradiation embrittlement prediction models and a stringency level methodology

The selection of materials for the reactor pressure vessel manufacturing is a complex process that involves great responsibility because small differences in chemical composition can adversely affect the manufacturing process and the in-service behavior of the material. Thus, it is recommendable to perform previous materials pre-selection stages based on the state-of-the-art knowledge, integrating research results with standardized requirements and using simplifier materials selection methodologies like the stringency level method. To address this issue, an evaluation of the influence of chemical composition on the shift of the ductile-to-brittle transition temperature has been performed using the most used and consolidated prediction models that are R.G. 1.99 Rev.2, NUREG/CR-6551, and ASTM E 900-02. A proposal of maximum limits for copper, nickel, and phosphorous to avoid irradiation embrittlement has been presented to carry out the process. The results have been analyzed by using the stringency level methodology to support the decision process. To this end, a materials data collection has been carried out to analyze the requirements described by 20 different specifications of materials from first to fourth generation of light water reactors, covering the main designs of pressurized reactors from Western Europe, North America, Japan, and Russia. It can be concluded that more recently developed materials exhibit more stringent requirements than earlier developed materials.

Development of a Computer Tool to Support the Teaching of Materials Technology

Materials technology is a matter of great applicative and crosscutting interest, as evidenced by their presence in most curriculums of the current industrial engineering degrees. During the development of this matter, it is crucial that the student assimilates not only the relationship among composition, processing and mechanical properties, but also, how all these technological features interact facing the in-service behavior of the material. That is why, within a Doctoral dissertation developed at the Department of Construction and Manufacturing Engineering at the National Distance Education University (UNED), it has designed a computer tool to quantify the stringency level of technological requirements of materials (especially suitable for high demanding applications), characterized by its suitability as interactive teaching material used in the teaching of materials engineering. As a case study, we have chosen a selection of materials for nuclear reactor pressure vessels, because it is a very representative example of the relationship between chemical composition, mechanical properties and in-service behavior.