Earthquakes in Groningen: Organized Suppression of a Creeping Crisis

Natural earthquakes do not occur in the northern part of the Netherlands. Yet, small earthquakes have regularly struck the area since the 1980s. For a long time, it was denied that these earthquakes were caused by the extraction of gas in the area and that these earthquakes could cause any damage. When more, and more severe, earthquakes struck the province of Groningen, these claims became unsustainable. In 2012, a relatively strong earthquake hit the area and the earthquakes became a national policy issue that threatened the legitimacy of the state. The crisis lingered on until 2018 when the national government finally realized that prolonged extraction would cause a deep crisis and decided to terminate the extraction of gas well before the depletion of the field. We argue that this visible and enduring crisis was not recognized and sufficiently addressed because of a societal dependency on the extraction of gas. The crisis was actively suppressed by the main actors, which ultimately undermined the legitimacy of the gas production and the state.

Migration, Borders, and Society

In recent years, we have learned that forced global migration pose a serious threat to international peace and societal values. Despite the many warnings and refugee crises across the world, most national governments have insufficiently addressed this threat. In this chapter, we try to explain this lack of action. The chapter explores possible explanations such as the denial mindset of “it probably won’t happen here (and if it does, it won’t affect my family and community)”. The chapter focuses on the border management crisis in Sweden in 2015. The Swedish government did not address the situation as a crisis until the refugees, who had been on the Mediterranean Sea and traversing north over the continent for months, ended up in Malmö in the south of Sweden in September 2015. This predictable set of events caused chaos for the unprepared Swedish police and the border and migration authorities who had to handle the situation under conditions of urgency and apparent uncertainty.

Big Data as a Creeping Crisis

This chapter examines the mass accumulation of private data in terms of a creeping crisis. The threat at hand—commonly referred to as “Big Data”—pertains to the direct compromising of personal integrity and safety. The chapter explores the driving forces behind this threat, identifies the precursor events or “flare-ups” of the deeper problem, and documents the varying levels of scientific, political, and public attention given to the problem. Our analysis reveals the breadth of the problem and the main challenge to managing it: societies’ deep dependence on the underlying technologies and systems. Addressing this creeping crisis will require substantial government intervention to regulate privacy and effective horizon scanning to track its many possible costs.

Understanding and Acting Upon a Creeping Crisis

The notion of a creeping crisis is a conceptual one, a heuristic device useful for helping to uncover hidden dimensions of today’s more pressing—some might say existential—societal problems. In this introductory chapter, we present our definition of creeping crisis and unpack the analytical dimensions of the concept. We review what existing research does and does not tell us about those dimensions. The chapter concludes by highlighting key research questions and outlining how the case studies in the book help to answer those questions.

WannaCry as a Creeping Crisis

This chapter deepens our understanding of cyber crises with the help of the creeping crisis concept. The chapter shows that although emerging technologies make malicious activities in cyberspace more sophisticated, vulnerabilities enabling such threats have been inherent in cyber assets for a very long time in the form of creeping crises. The question is: was WannaCry the acute crisis or just a precursor event to a bigger explosion? It is argued that the WannaCry ransomware attack in 2017 should be considered a wake-up call. The chapter demonstrates how the cyber threat was lurking in the background, gradually evolving in time and space in a non-linear fashion and receiving varying levels of attention.

Political Attention in a Creeping Crisis: The Case of Climate Change and Migration

This chapter discusses the creeping crisis of rising human displacement induced by environmental degradation and natural catastrophes. Sea-level rise, droughts, and the increased occurrence of hurricanes and floods already have, and increasingly will have, drastic effects on migration patterns. Climate-induced displacement already outnumbers displacement from war or violence. Nation states and the international community have consistently failed to properly address this phenomenon. Only recently has political attention begun to increase. This chapter argues that our understanding of climate-induced migration can be improved with the help of the creeping crisis concept. In addition, climate-induced migration may provide insights to the underlying mechanisms of creeping crises. More to the point, this chapter explores the rise and fall of political attention in this case, offers insights on what lies behind this and reflects upon the broader implications for the literature on creeping crises.

Antimicrobial Resistance as a Creeping Crisis

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) displays many of the characteristics of a creeping crisis. It lacks clearly definable temporal and spatial boundaries. It develops in the natural world when and where conditions are conducive. It traverses sectors and borders in the natural, human, and built environments. It causes individual and societal harm when it escalates toward outbreaks in a random fashion. Outbreaks can be minor or major, burn fast or slow, be simple or hard to contain. Experts insist we are heading toward a “post-antibiotic age” and even deadlier “superbugs” if we do not act. Yet warnings and crisis framings do not appear sufficient to prompt a response. Public attention and governmental action have lagged. Occasional outbreaks invite attention and concern, only for the issue to fade again from the public view. International organizations shine more sustained light on the problem, but national governments are slow to respond. This chapter argues that our dependency on antimicrobial drugs is a blessing and a curse: curing us in the short term but building the conditions for a massive, incurable outbreak in the future.

From Creeping to Full-Blown Crisis: Lessons from the Dutch and Swedish Response to Covid-19

On the last day of 2019, China alerted the World Health Organization to a cluster of mysterious pneumonia cases. A new coronavirus (Covid-19) was discovered. Within three months after the alert, Europe had become the epicenter of a global pandemic. Even though the virus spread easily and quickly within communities, it took its time to travel from China to northern Europe. Nevertheless, many governments were slow to respond to the emerging threat. This chapter analyzes the initial phase of the Covid-19 crisis in Sweden and the Netherlands, focusing on the relationship between experts and decision-makers. The chapter discusses four factors that may help explain why the Swedish and Dutch governments were slow in their response. The governments assumed an epidemic like the one in China would not happen in their country, the experts followed international scientific guidelines, citizens were expected to defy limitations on their freedoms, and both experts and decision-makers were confident with regard to the level of preparedness. Lessons are formulated for further analysis and future preparations.

Remaining Foreign Fighters: Fear, Misconceptions and Counterproductive Responses

The Syrian conflict gave rise to a large mobilization of Islamist foreign fighters. In recent years, many of these foreign fighters have asked to be repatriated from overcrowded refugee camps in northern Syria, camps known as hotbeds for radicalization. While researchers and humanitarian organizations largely agree that repatriation can prevent further radicalization and transnational threats, political leaders refuse to act. As the dire humanitarian situation in the camps and a denial of responsibility at home intensify, the situation is becoming more acute. This chapter explores the issue of remaining foreign fighters in Syria and the evolving threat situation as an example of a creeping crisis. The chapter focuses specifically on the Swedish handling of these foreign fighters. At least three hundred Swedish citizens traveled to Syria in 2012. In recent years, many of these have asked to be repatriated. Similar to its European counterparts, the Swedish government has refused to meet these foreign fighters’ requests, potentially generating a broader global threat. The Swedish response is the focus of this chapter and illuminates one of the key aspects of a creeping crisis.

Understanding Creeping Crises: Revisiting the Puzzle

This chapter returns to the research question that animated the case studies and summarizes the findings of the chapters in this book. It offers provisional answers to our research question and formulates an agenda for future research. Much of the chapter is devoted to thinking through the implications of the creeping crisis perspective for the practitioner community. We build on our research findings to argue that the time for action is now and formulate a set of recommendations that can help jumpstart this agenda.