Public rights and liberties

A key issue in the study of political change is the situation and development of rights and freedoms. Specifically, this chapter studies the impact that the eruption of the Arab Spring has had on these liberties. In order to meet this objective it analyses primary sources, legal reforms and frameworks, and databases and research reports. The question this chapter addresses is whether political changes in the MENA region reflect deepening liberalisation processes through de iure modifications of the civil liberties legislative framework; and the extent to which these changes have had a de facto impact on regimes. In sum, it assesses whether these changes have been sufficient to represent an advance or regression in the democratic character of the region's political regimes. After the analysis, it can be concluded that the situation of civil liberties in the region is either precarious or alarming in the majority of the MENA countries. Furthermore, with the exception of Tunisia, the Arab Spring has not led to a substantive improvement despite the reformist ambition of some countries, and has even led to a significant deterioration in various cases.

Parties and party system change

This chapter examines parties and party system change across the MENA countries since December 2010. The discussion begins with a brief overview of party systems in the region on the eve of the Arab Spring, thereby providing a quick introduction to the selected cases as well as a benchmark against which to measure change. Party system change is determined via indicators such as the effective number of parties, party system fragmentation, electoral volatility and the entry of new parties into the system. The analysis of the indicators of party system change is coupled with a discussion of empirical data on the political environment during and in the immediate aftermath of the elections, including issues such as regime classification, rotation of power, coalition structures, prohibited parties, and societal cleavages. The author explains how - despite the fact that some old regimes fell and elections were held - the traditionally dominant or hegemonic political parties stayed preeminent in a number of MENA countries. Finally, this chapter shows what party system change tells us about the prospects for democracy some five years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring.

Constitutional reform processes

This chapter analyses the constitutional reform processes that have taken place in the MENA countries since the social uprisings in 2011. The purpose of this study is to examine and compare the constitutional reform processes in order to offer key insights into these processes and to propose a typology of the dynamics of constitutional reform, and its scope in the MENA region. The aspects for analysis include procedures, consensus and dissent during the course of the constitutional process, and the content of the constitutional reforms. The emphasis is placed on the most important elements of the processes of constitutional change and of the content of the new constitutions, while paying particular attention to aspects related with the power of heads of state, the most frequently-debated reforms and the advancement of gender equality and women’s rights. The authors conclude that constitutional processes are relevant, but not determinant for democratic change, with the exception of Tunisia. The scope of the constitutional amendments has been limited and has perpetuated the dominance of the authoritarian rulers. Many of the constitutional reforms after the Arab Spring have been the product of strategies for survival by the respective regimes and were promoted ‘top-down’ through a process that, in many countries, excluded the revolutionary movements and opposition groups that were not loyal to the regime.

The foreign policy of the United States following the Arab Spring

This chapter analyses president Obama’s foreign policy in the MENA region. The first section focuses on the discourse and key strategic documents of the Obama administration. The purpose is to identify the place that the MENA region has in the order of priorities of his foreign policy. The second section analyses the US foreign policy towards some of the states affected by the Arab Spring; while the third analyses the participation of the US in various conflicts that have marked this change process. The fourth explores the question of the nuclear agreement with Iran and its effects on Israel, which is one of the main allies of the US in the region. The final chapter pulls together the conclusions. In some cases the US used diplomatic tools to promote political change; this is the case of Tunisia, Egypt or Yemen. In other cases the American decision-makers defended a status quo policy, such as Bahrain. In the cases of Libya, Syria and Iraq, the US was involved in different military interventions to promote political change or to fight terrorist groups like the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS), as a consequence of the Arab Spring. The chapter concludes that the Obama Administration did not have a coherent strategy to the region, offering different reactions to different states with different contexts and interests. Nevertheless, the ascent of the IS and the Russian influence on the region, make that the MENA region retains its strategic and vital role for the American foreign policy.

The political and security repercussions of Islamic State in the MENA region

This chapter examines the political, territorial and security repercussions of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) for the MENA region, and particularly in Syria, Iraq and Libya. The proclamation of the IS, on 29 June 2014, has had a major impact on political and security alike. It has been given a new twist to the war in Iraq and Syria and the Libyan conflict on the following aspects: (i) amplifying and making the conflict more complex with related implications on security; (ii) establishing a new mode of governance in the conquered territories; and (iii) further producing a new security framework in MENA region. After a brief contextualization about the origins and goals of IS, the chapter analyses the following sections: (i) the impact of IS in the security domain (type of conflict with its own signs of identity); (ii) the government exerted in the occupied territories; and (iii) the implications and impacts on the security realm throughout MENA region by focusing on two main domains: the international response to the threat provided by the international community, and the new configuration of regional and global alliances. The main contribution of this chapter dues to the scarcity of studies in this regard is the analysis of the IS’ conflict typology.

Civil society and social movements

This chapter establishes a general framework that enables to assess the situation of civil society in the MENA region, before and after the Arab Spring. The Arab Spring undermined many of the theories that dwelt on the depoliticisation of civil society, its inability to influence the political agenda and the customary use made of it as an instrument of authoritarian regimes. Although this activism appeared to take on new forms, it was not spontaneously generated, but included an accumulation of baggage from the past, in constant relationship and tension with the state; hence, along with associations concerned with charity work and development, there also existed another more critical and politically committed type of organisation, in which the theory of the persistence of authoritarianism had not shown sufficient interest. Likewise, the Arab Spring questioned the institutionalised, structured, organisational nature of civil society that transitology usually supports. During the uprisings, none of the traditional or formal civil society organisations came to the fore, either in their interventionist (NGOs) or their most contestatory dimensions (human rights organisations, Islamist groups, or more politicised platforms). Thus, the chapter shows that it is necessary to go beyond a certain reductionist view of what civil society is and to propose another concept, much more dynamic, creative and horizontalist that involves not only hierarchical organisational structures, but also other spaces of mobilisation in which the citizenry can express its social, political and economic commitment.

Good governance in MENA countries

This chapter analyses the state of good governance following the main indicators elaborated by the World Bank in the MENA region. International institutions have been criticised for having unrealistic or unreliable criteria in relation to good governance; however this chapter argues that they do sufficiently represent what good governance should be about and in what kind of environment it should occur. The contention here is that the lack of good governance in the MENA region is not a story of poor achievement related to criteria or adaptability, but a much broader failure of international institutional policies in the developing world, but at the same time, local MENA political actors greatly contributed to such failure. There are a number of factors that explain the failure of good governance policies in the Middle East and North Africa and they are related to both structural weaknesses in the way in which they were thought out – erroneous theoretical assumptions – and to contingent issues related to their implementation on the ground. Finally, various studies on the state of governance and its indicators over the last decade, including the Arab Spring period, have demonstrated that the political, economic and social situation is no better than before the uprisings.

Autocratisation, authoritarian progressions and fragmented states

This chapter analyses the MENA countries that have experienced negative changes following the Arab Spring: a process of autocratisation in Turkey, authoritarian progressions in Kuwait and Bahrain, and the fragmentation of state authority in Syria and Iraq. Turkey has transited from being a defective democracy to authoritarianism (due to a concentration of power in the hands of president Erdoğan), which has been a more pronounced tendency since the attempted coup d’état in July 2016. Kuwait, one of the ‘less authoritarian’ Arab countries before 2011, has undergone an authoritarian progression as a consequence of the emir’s attempts to control parliament and approve restrictive laws regarding rights and liberties. Likewise, authoritarian progression in Bahrain has been the consequence of a decline in political competition - as a result of the withdrawal of opposition movements from parliament and state repression against any type of opposition. The democratic regime established in 2005 in Iraq currently faces enormous concerns: disabling sectarism, weak governance, and the occupation of much of northwestern Iraq by IS. Violence directed by al-Assad’s regime against protesters provoked a civil war on several fronts and a breakdown of state authority in Syria. The chapter shows that these conflicts in the Middle East, as well as in Yemen, have made the region unstable and represent an enormous international challenge.

Political liberalisation processes

This chapter examines the political liberalisation processes undertaken in MENA countries such as Morocco, Jordan, Oman and Algeria. As on previous occasions, the post-2011 political liberalisation processes were planned and led by the authoritarian rulers in a top-down fashion, acting as an escape valve for authoritarian regimes to defuse social discontent. These reforms were largely cosmetic and therefore have not led to a change in the authoritarian nature of the political regimes. The reforms focused mainly on two aspects: reforms of the constitution and party and electoral laws and changes in each regime’s degree of representation and/or political participation. Although there are positive aspects, the reforms have not brought about substantial changes in power relations. Only in the case of Morocco did these changes produce alternation in government although even there, the repercussions were limited by the need for the election winning party to form a coalition government and because of royal interference in the executive.

Successful and failed transitions to democracy

This chapter studies the democratic transitions following the fall of the authoritarian rulers in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. The chapter shows that the only successful democratisation occurred in Tunisia thanks to agreements between political actors, concessions from a dominant party and a strong and participative civil society. On the contrary, despite the Egyptian transition taking place in a similar scenario of polarisation between Islamist and secular parties as in Tunisia, Egyptian transition failed because of a lack of agreement between political forces, an exclusionary process led by the Islamists, and the interference of the army in political affairs. Democratic transition also failed in Libya, due to the lack of prior institutional architecture and of experience of party participation and political groups. Finally, the model of democratic transition that was carried out in Yemen was favourable to the achievement of democracy. It sought a broad social and political consensus for the new state before holding elections and approving a constitution, and had the involvement of the international community in the design and implementation of the transitional road map. However, empowerment of old regime elites in the transition process, the exclusion of revolutionary movements, the lack of consensus to satisfy the demands of the independence movement in the south, and antagonism between political forces and their regional backers have doomed the democratic transition to failure.