Orthogonalizations and Prior Distributions for Orthogonalized Model Mixing

Author(s):  
Merlise Clyde ◽  
Giovanni Parmigiani
2021 ◽  
pp. 100079
Author(s):  
Vincent Fortuin ◽  
Adrià Garriga-Alonso ◽  
Mark van der Wilk ◽  
Laurence Aitchison

Stats ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 184-204
Author(s):  
Carlos Barrera-Causil ◽  
Juan Carlos Correa ◽  
Andrew Zamecnik ◽  
Francisco Torres-Avilés ◽  
Fernando Marmolejo-Ramos

Expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) aims at obtaining individual representations of experts’ beliefs and render them in the form of probability distributions or functions. In many cases the elicited distributions differ and the challenge in Bayesian inference is then to find ways to reconcile discrepant elicited prior distributions. This paper proposes the parallel analysis of clusters of prior distributions through a hierarchical method for clustering distributions and that can be readily extended to functional data. The proposed method consists of (i) transforming the infinite-dimensional problem into a finite-dimensional one, (ii) using the Hellinger distance to compute the distances between curves and thus (iii) obtaining a hierarchical clustering structure. In a simulation study the proposed method was compared to k-means and agglomerative nesting algorithms and the results showed that the proposed method outperformed those algorithms. Finally, the proposed method is illustrated through an EKE experiment and other functional data sets.


1991 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald A. Berry ◽  
Robert P. Kertz

For k-armed Bernoulli bandits with discounting, sharp comparisons are given between average optimal rewards for a gambler and for a ‘perfectly informed' gambler, over natural collections of prior distributions. Some of these comparisons are proved under general discounting, and others under non-increasing discount sequences. Connections are made between these comparisons and the concept of ‘regret' in the minimax approach to bandit processes. Identification of extremal cases in the sharp comparisons is emphasized.


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