Savings, investment and economic growth in Nigeria: a forecast error variance decomposition analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
N.A. God' ◽  
stime Osekhebhen Eigbiremolen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Forecast Error Variance ◽  
Variance Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Forecast Error Variance Decomposition

scholarly journals The communication effects on inflation forecast errors: Empirical evidence from Colombia

2020 ◽  
pp. 16-16
Author(s):  
Juan Zapata ◽  
Juan Ciro
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
Forecast Error Variance ◽  
Variance Decomposition Analysis

The purpose of this article is to explore the central bank's ability to management inflation forecast errors in Colombia. We present empirical evidence based on the Colombian experience with data from the period of 2008 to 2020. The communication channel selected for analysis is the press releases. The empirical evidence is divided into three steps: (i) regression analysis using an EGARCH model, (ii) use of VAR models, and (iii) variance decomposition analysis. The communications effects are significant for several months and that close to half of the forecast error variance can be explained by innovations in central bank communication. The results obtained allow monetary policymakers to develop more efficient strategies for anchoring expectations and strengthening the central bank credibility.

The influence of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on US citizens overseas air passenger travel by regional destination

2020 ◽  
pp. 135481662098119
Author(s):  
James E Payne ◽  
Nicholas Apergis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Passenger Travel ◽  
Forecast Error Variance

This research note extends the literature on the role of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on US citizens overseas air travel through the examination of the forecast error variance decomposition of total overseas air travel and by regional destination. Our empirical findings indicate that across regional destinations, US economic policy uncertainty explains more of the forecast error variance of US overseas air travel, followed by geopolitical risk with global economic policy uncertainty explaining a much smaller percentage of the forecast error variance.

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