The role of R&D and economic policy uncertainty in Sri Lanka’s economic growth

In this paper, we assess the role of investment in research and development (R&D) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience. We do this by first determining which endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of total factor productivity (TFP) in the country. Using historical time series data (1980–2018), we find that semi-endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of TFP in Sri Lanka. This evidence suggests that R&D is critical to the country’s TFP expansion. We find that, through R&D, EPU has a crucial detrimental impact on TFP growth, although it is short-lived. Our findings are robust and have important implications for R&D investment and for moderating EPU.

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Exchange Rate in China and Japan? Evidence from Threshold Cointegration with Asymmetric Adjustment

In this article, we estimate the links between nominal exchange rates (JPY/USD and CNY/USD) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in China and Japan by employing monthly data during the period span from January 1997 to September 2020. The threshold cointegration approach focus in TAR, M-TAR, C-TAR and C-MTAR is used. Results indicate the evidence of asymmetric effect in the adjustment process to equilibrium and the M-TAR is the best model to detect threshold effect for the (CNY/USD-CNYEPU) pair and the C-TAR is the best model to detect threshold effect for the (JPY/USD-JPYEPU) pair.

Evidence of Economic Policy Uncertainty and COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Stock Returns

This paper examines the impact of changes in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and COVID-19 shock on stock returns. Tests of 16 global stock market indices, using monthly data from January 1990 to August 2021, suggest a negative relation between the stock return and a country’s EPU. Evidence suggests that a rise in the U.S. EPU causes not only a decline in a country’s stock return, but also a negative spillover effect on the global market; however, we cannot find a comparable negative effect from global EPU to U.S. stocks. Evidence suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative impact that significantly affects stock return worldwide. This study also finds an indirect COVID-19 impact that runs through a change in domestic EPU and, in turn, affects stock return. Evidence shows significant COVID-19 effects that change relative stock returns between the U.S. and global markets, creating a decoupling phenomenon.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Conditional Dependence between China and U.S. Stock Markets

In this paper, we investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the conditional dependence between China and U.S. stock markets by employing the Copula-mixed-data sampling (Copula-MIDAS) framework. In the case of EPU, we consider the global EPU (GEPU), the American EPU (AEPU), and the China EPU (CEPU). The empirical analysis based on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index in China and the S&P 500 index in the U.S. shows that the tail dependence between China and U.S. stock markets is symmetrical, and the t Copula outperforms alternative Copulas in terms of in-sample goodness of fit. In particular, we find that the t Copula-MIDAS model with EPU dominates the traditional time-varying t Copula in terms of in-sample fitting. Moreover, we observe that both the GEPU and AEPU have a significantly positive impact on the conditional dependence between China and U.S. stock markets, whereas CEPU has no significant impact. The tail dependence between China and U.S. stock markets exhibits an increasing trend, particularly in the recent years.