Aircraft Observations for Improved Physical Parameterization for Seasonal Prediction

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Djamal Khelif
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Portal ◽  
Paolo Ruggieri ◽  
Froila M. Palmeiro ◽  
Javier García-Serrano ◽  
Daniela I. V. Domeisen ◽  
...  

AbstractThe predictability of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and its underlying dynamics are investigated in five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model database. Special attention is devoted to the connection between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and lower-stratosphere wave activity (LSWA). We find that in winter (December to February) dynamical forecasts initialised on the first of November are considerably more skilful than empirical forecasts based on October anomalies. Moreover, the coupling of the SPV with mid-latitude LSWA (i.e., meridional eddy heat flux) is generally well reproduced by the forecast systems, allowing for the identification of a robust link between the predictability of wave activity above the tropopause and the SPV skill. Our results highlight the importance of November-to-February LSWA, in particular in the Eurasian sector, for forecasts of the winter stratosphere. Finally, the role of potential sources of seasonal stratospheric predictability is considered: we find that the C3S multi-model overestimates the stratospheric response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and underestimates the influence of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO).


2021 ◽  
pp. 105761
Author(s):  
Chen Wang ◽  
Yun Qian ◽  
Qingyun Duan ◽  
Maoyi Huang ◽  
Zhao Yang ◽  
...  

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (12) ◽  
pp. 2963-2982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Alessandri ◽  
Andrea Borrelli ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Simona Masina

Abstract This study investigates the predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) seasonal count anomalies using the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici–Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (CMCC-INGV) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS). To this aim, nine-member ensemble forecasts for the period 1992–2001 for two starting dates per year were performed. The skill in reproducing the observed TC counts has been evaluated after the application of a TC location and tracking detection method to the retrospective forecasts. The SPS displays good skill in predicting the observed TC count anomalies, particularly over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution and interannual variability, thus indicating that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link the TCs’ occurrence with the large-scale circulation. TC count anomalies prediction has been found to be sensitive to the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations performed without assimilated initial conditions, the results indicate that the assimilation significantly improves the prediction of the TC count anomalies over the eastern North Pacific Ocean (ENP) and northern Indian Ocean (NI) during boreal summer. During the austral counterpart, significant progresses over the area surrounding Australia (AUS) and in terms of the probabilistic quality of the predictions also over the southern Indian Ocean (SI) were evidenced. The analysis shows that the improvement in the prediction of anomalous TC counts follows the enhancement in forecasting daily anomalies in sea surface temperature due to subsurface ocean initialization. Furthermore, the skill changes appear to be in part related to forecast differences in convective available potential energy (CAPE) over the ENP and the North Atlantic Ocean (ATL), in wind shear over the NI, and in both CAPE and wind shear over the SI.


2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (14) ◽  
pp. 6641-6646 ◽  
Author(s):  
Havala O. T. Pye ◽  
Emma L. D’Ambro ◽  
Ben H. Lee ◽  
Siegfried Schobesberger ◽  
Masayuki Takeuchi ◽  
...  

Atmospheric oxidation of natural and anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) leads to secondary organic aerosol (SOA), which constitutes a major and often dominant component of atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Recent work demonstrates that rapid autoxidation of organic peroxy radicals (RO2) formed during VOC oxidation results in highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOM) that efficiently form SOA. As NOxemissions decrease, the chemical regime of the atmosphere changes to one in which RO2autoxidation becomes increasingly important, potentially increasing PM2.5, while oxidant availability driving RO2formation rates simultaneously declines, possibly slowing regional PM2.5formation. Using a suite of in situ aircraft observations and laboratory studies of HOM, together with a detailed molecular mechanism, we show that although autoxidation in an archetypal biogenic VOC system becomes more competitive as NOxdecreases, absolute HOM production rates decrease due to oxidant reductions, leading to an overall positive coupling between anthropogenic NOxand localized biogenic SOA from autoxidation. This effect is observed in the Atlanta, Georgia, urban plume where HOM is enhanced in the presence of elevated NO, and predictions for Guangzhou, China, where increasing HOM-RO2production coincides with increases in NO from 1990 to 2010. These results suggest added benefits to PM2.5abatement strategies come with NOxemission reductions and have implications for aerosol–climate interactions due to changes in global SOA resulting from NOxinteractions since the preindustrial era.


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