The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Some Empirical Evidence (La theorie monetaire du taux de change: preuves empiriques) (El enfoque monetario del tipo de cambio: Algunas pruebas empiricas)

1978 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 48 ◽  
Author(s):  
John F. O. Bilson
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Monetary Approach ◽  
The Exchange Rate

scholarly journals Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?

2006 ◽  
Vol 96 (3) ◽  
pp. 552-576 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Bacchetta ◽  
Eric van Wincoop
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Order Flow ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Symmetric Information ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Empirical evidence shows that most exchange rate volatility at short to medium horizons is related to order flow and not to macroeconomic variables. We introduce symmetric information dispersion about future macroeconomic fundamentals in a dynamic rational expectations model in order to explain these stylized facts. Consistent with the evidence, the model implies that (a) observed fundamentals account for little of exchange rate volatility in the short to medium run, (b) over long horizons, the exchange rate is closely related to observed fundamentals, (c) exchange rate changes are a weak predictor of future fundamentals, and (d) the exchange rate is closely related to order flow.

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