Methane as a diagnostic tracer of changes in the net circulation of the middle atmosphere

This study makes use of time series of methane (CH4) data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) to determine whether there were any statistically significant changes of the net circulation within the stratosphere and lower mesosphere during 1992–2005. HALOE CH4 profiles in terms of mixing ratio vs. pressure-altitude are binned into subtropical and extratropical latitude zones of the southern and of the Northern Hemisphere, and their separate time series are then analyzed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques. A positive trend in the subtropics and a negative trend in the extratropics is interpreted as indicating an acceleration of the net circulation. A significant acceleration is found in the Northern Hemisphere from 20 hPa to 7 hPa, a likely indication of changes from the effects of wave activity during those years. No similar acceleration is found in the Southern Hemisphere. The trends from HALOE H2O are analyzed and compared with those from CH4 for consistency because H2O is a primary product in the upper stratosphere of the chemical conversion of CH4. The CH4 and H2O trends have a ratio of nearly 2 : 1, and they are anti-correlated most clearly near the stratopause in the southern extratropics. Seasonal anomalies are found in the HALOE CH4 time series of the lower mesosphere, and they are ascribed to wave-driven, secondary residual circulation cells associated with the descent of the SAO westerlies. The time series residuals for CH4 of the lower mesosphere also exhibit aperiodic structure, and it is anti-correlated with that of the tracer-like species HCl. Such structure indicates the effects of variations in the wave forcing. It is concluded that multi-year, global-scale distributions of CH4 are very useful for diagnosing large-scale changes of the net transport within the middle atmosphere.