A Climate Perspective of the Quasi-Stationary Front in Southwestern China: Structure, Variation and Impact

Yunnan-Guizhou quasi-stationary front (YGQSF) is a unique weather phenomenon that frequently occurs during winter half year over the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in southwestern China. Most of previous studies analyzed it only with synoptic cases. This study investigates the structure, variation, and impact of YGQSF from a climate perspective, using long-term high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis and high-density station records for 1981-2016. An objective method quantifying YGQSF is proposed and three indexes are defined to measure the intensity, frequency, and location of YGQSF, respectively, with the horizontal gradient of air potential temperature at a terrain-following level of sigma 0.995. With these indexes, climatological structure, subseasonal variability as well as climatic impact of YGQSF are comprehensively examined. In climatology, YGQSF as a north-south-oriented low-level front is found to occur the most frequently during January-February-March (JFM), determined predominately by the coldness from the east of the front. The structure of YGQSF identified essentially reflects an obstruction of high-terrain Yunnan (the western part of the plateau) to the low-level cold air mass, which makes near-surface cold northeasterly winds cease westward intruding and veer upward over relatively low-terrain Guizhou, transporting moisture upward and forming low clouds. A sharp climate contrast is thus formed between two sides of YGQSF: cold, sunless, and continuously rainy Guizhou versus warm and sunny Yunnan. Furthermore, YGQSF features significant subseasonal variations with periods at around 30d and 60d largely in its intensity. Anomalously strong YGQSF events which are caused 75% by the cold anomaly from the east but less than 17% by the warm anomaly from the west yield different anomalous structures, but consistently amplify the sharp climate contrast between Yunnan and Guizhou.

A numerical study to investigate the roles of former Hurricane Leslie, orography and evaporative cooling in the 2018 Aude heavy-precipitation event

In south-eastern France, the Mediterranean coast is regularly affected by heavy-precipitation events. On 14–15 October 2018, in the Aude department, a back-building quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system produced up to about 300 mm of rain in 11 h. At synoptic scale, the former Hurricane Leslie was involved in the formation of a Mediterranean surface low that channelled conditionally unstable air towards the coast. At mesoscale, convective cells focused west of a decaying cold front that became quasi-stationary and downwind of the terrain. To investigate the roles of the moisture provided by Leslie, orography and evaporative cooling among the physical processes that led to the location and intensity of the observed rainfall, numerical simulations are run at 1 km and 500 m horizontal grid spacing and evaluated with independent near-surface analyses including novel crowd-sourced observations of personal weather stations. Simulations show that, in a first part of the event, low-level conditionally unstable air parcels found inside strong updraughts mainly originated from areas east of the Balearic Islands, over the Mediterranean Sea, whereas in a second part, an increasing number originated from Leslie's remnants. Air masses from areas east of the Balearic Islands appeared as the first supplier of moisture over the entire event. Still, Leslie contributed to substantially moistening mid-levels over the Aude department, diminishing evaporation processes. Thus, the evaporative cooling over the Aude department did not play any substantial role in the stationarity of the quasi-stationary front. Regarding lifting mechanisms, the advection of conditionally unstable air by a low-level jet towards the quasi-stationary front, confined to altitudes below 2 km, reactivated convection along and downwind of the front. Most of the air parcels found inside strong updraughts near the location of the maximum rainfall were lifted above the quasi-stationary front. Downwind of the Albera Massif, mountains bordering the Mediterranean Sea, cells formed by orographic lifting were maintained by low-level leeward convergence, mountain lee waves and a favourable directional wind shear; when terrain is flattened, rainfall is substantially reduced. The location of the exceptional precipitation was primarily driven by the location of the quasi-stationary front and secondarily by the location of convective bands downwind of orography.

Hindcasting the First Tornado Forecast in Europe: 25 June 1967

The tornado outbreak of 24–25 June 1967 was the most damaging in the history of western Europe, producing 7 F2–F5 tornadoes, 232 injuries, and 15 fatalities across France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Following tornadoes in France on 24 June, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) issued a tornado forecast for 25 June, which became the first ever—and first verified—tornado forecast in Europe. Fifty-two years later, tornadoes are still not usually forecast by most European national meteorological services, and a pan-European counterpart to the NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does not exist to provide convective outlook guidance; yet, tornadoes remain an extant threat. This article asks, “What would a modern-day forecast of the 24–25 June 1967 outbreak look like?” To answer this question, a model simulation of the event is used in three ways: 20-km grid-spacing output to produce a SPC-style convective outlook provided by the European Storm Forecast Experiment (ESTOFEX), 800-m grid-spacing output to analyze simulated reflectivity and surface winds in a nowcasting analog, and 800-m grid-spacing output to produce storm-total footprints of updraft helicity maxima to compare to observed tornado tracks. The model simulates a large supercell on 24 June and weaker embedded mesocyclones on 25 June forming along a stationary front, allowing the ESTOFEX outlooks to correctly identify the threat. Updraft helicity footprints indicate multiple mesocyclones on both days within 40–50 km and 3–4 h of observed tornado tracks, demonstrating the ability to hindcast a large European tornado outbreak.

Channel-levee evolution in combined contour current–turbidity current flows from flume-tank experiments

Turbidity currents and contour currents are common sedimentary and oceanographic processes in deep-marine settings that affect continental margins worldwide. Their simultaneous interaction can form asymmetric and unidirectionally migrating channels, which can lead to opposite interpretations of paleocontour current direction: channels migrating against the contour current or in the direction of the contour current. In this study, we performed three-dimensional flume-tank experiments of the synchronous interaction between contour currents and turbidity currents to understand the effect of these combined currents on channel architecture and evolution. Our results show that contour currents with a velocity of 10–19 cm s−1 can substantially deflect the direction of turbidity currents with a maximum velocity of 76–96 cm s−1, and modify the channel-levee system architecture. A lateral and nearly stationary front formed on the levee located upstream of the contour current, reduced overspill and thus restrained the development of a levee on this side of the channel. Sediment was preferentially carried out of the channel at the flank located downstream of the contour current. An increase in contour-current velocity resulted in an increase in channel-levee asymmetry, with the development of a wider levee and more abundant bedforms downstream of the contour current. This asymmetric deposition along the channel suggests that the direction of long-term migration of the channel form should go against the direction of the contour current due to levee growth downstream of the contour current, in agreement with one of the previously proposed conceptual models.

Seven-Doppler Radar and In Situ Analysis of the 25–26 June 2015 Kansas MCS during PECAN

This case study analyzes a nocturnal mesoscale convective system (MCS) that was observed on 25–26 June 2015 in northeastern Kansas during the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) project. Over the course of the observational period, a broken line of elevated nocturnal convective cells initiated around 0230 UTC on the cool side of a stationary front and subsequently merged to form a quasi-linear MCS that later developed strong, surface-based outflow and a trailing stratiform region. This study combines radar observations with mobile and fixed mesonet and sounding data taken during PECAN to analyze the kinematics and thermodynamics of the MCS from 0300 to 0630 UTC. This study is unique in that 38 consecutive multi-Doppler wind analyses are examined over the 3.5 h observation period, facilitating a long-duration analysis of the kinematic evolution of the nocturnal MCS. Radar analyses reveal that the initial convective cells and linear MCS are elevated and sustained by an elevated residual layer formed via weak ascent over the stationary front. During upscale growth, individual convective cells develop storm-scale cold pools due to pockets of descending rear-to-front flow that are measured by mobile mesonets. By 0500 UTC, kinematic analysis and mesonet observations show that the MCS has a surface-based cold pool and that convective line updrafts are ingesting parcels from below the stable layer. In this environment, the elevated system has become surface based since the cold pool lifting is sufficient for surface-based parcels to overcome the CIN associated with the frontal stable layer.

Frontal Wind Field Retrieval Based on UHF Wind Profiler Radars and an S-band Radar Network

The three-dimensional wind field (WPR3D) and the multiple WPR3D (M-WPR3D) associated with the passage of a stationary front was derived from observations made by a network of eight wind profiler radars (WPR) being operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration during the summer “Jangma” season. The effectiveness of the WPR3D was determined through numerical model analysis and wind profilers at three sites, and the accuracy of the M-WPR3D was validated by comparing the trajectory of the radiosonde. The discontinuity of the wind field near the frontal interface was clearly retrieved and the penetration of the air mass in the southern front was detected. Compared with either the wind vector of three single wind profiler or a local data assimilation and predication system, the WPR3D wind field showed a wind speed accuracy of approximately 70% at an altitude of 1.5 km and underestimated the wind speed by 0.5–1.5 m s−1. The M-WPR3D with three S-band Doppler radars successfully retrieved the backing wind field as well as the pre-Jangma-frontal jet. The results of this study showed that severe weather can be effectively analyzed using a three-dimensional wind field generated on the basis of a remote sensing network.