Uncertainty avoidance versus conditioned reinforcement: exploring paradoxical choice in rats

Paying a cost to reduce uncertainty can be adaptive, because better informed decision-makers can align their preferences to opportunities. However, birds and mammals display an appetite for information that they cannot use to functionally alter behaviour or its outcomes. We explore two putative motivational mechanisms for this paradoxical behaviour. The information hypothesis proposes that reducing uncertainty is reinforcing per se, consistent with the concept of curiosity: a motivation to know, in the absence of instrumental benefits. In contrast, the conditioned reinforcement hypothesis sees information-seeking as a consequence of asymmetries in secondarily acquired reinforcement: responding increments caused by post-choice stimuli announcing positive outcomes (S+) exceed decrements caused by stimuli signalling absence of reward (S−). We contrast these hypotheses experimentally. Rats chose between two equally profitable options delivering food probabilistically after a fixed delay. In the informative option (Info), the outcome (food/no food) was signalled immediately after choice, whereas in the non-informative option (NoInfo) outcomes were uncertain until the delay lapsed. Subjects preferred (Info) when (1) outcomes were signalled by salient auditory cues, (2) only the absence of reward was signalled, and (3) only reward was signalled, though acquisition was slower when rewards were not explicitly signalled. Our results show that a salient good news signal is not required as a conditioned reinforcer to generate paradoxical preferences. Terminal preferences support the information hypothesis but the slower acquisition of (Info) preference when S+ is not present is consistent with the conditioning account. We conclude that both uncertainty reduction and conditioned reinforcement influence choice.

Financial inclusion, bank competition and economic growth in Africa

Orientation: The relevance of bank competition and economic growth for boosting financial inclusion is attracting unprecedented attention from academics and policymakers, mainly because of several persisting issues which, if addressed, can enhance the functionality of governments, businesses, individuals and the economy.Research purpose: The study aims to examine the interplay between financial inclusion, bank competition and economic growth in Africa.Motivation for the study: Previous literature focuses mainly on the nexus between financial inclusion and bank competition, financial inclusion and economic growth and bank competition and economic growth producing diverse results, with a dearth of literature on the trivariate link between the three variables.Research approach/design and method: This study employed the pooled mean group estimation-based panel autoregression distribution lag approach from 2004 to 2018. A panel data analysis for 20 African countries was used.Main findings: The study found a significant positive relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth in the long run. However, in the short run, economic growth significantly reduces financial inclusion. We also found that in the long-run bank competition reduces financial inclusion in line with the information hypothesis. However, in the short run the effect is significantly positive, consistent with the market power hypothesis.Practical/managerial implications: Policymakers and development agencies should implement measures that reckon incentives that can accelerate bank competition to bring on-board the unbanked. They should also take note of financial inclusion measurement in addressing financial inclusion challenges. Moreover, they should minimise barriers to financial inclusion to enhance bank competition and stability.Contribution/value-add: The study managed to discover how bank competition and economic growth influences financial inclusion.

Neurokinin 3 Receptor Effects on Cognitive Behaviour in a Rat Model of Alzheimer's Disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is accepted as a form of progressive and irreversible dementia. It is known that cholinergic systems are commonly affected in AD. Neurokinin 3 receptor (NK3R) is involved in learning and memory related processes. Activation of NK3R is known to facilitate the release of many neurotransmitters such as acetylcholine (Ach), dopamine (DA), noradrenaline (NA). Based on this information, hypothesis of the study that NK3R agonism can have positive effects on behavioral and learning parameters through cholinergic and catecholaminergic mechanisms. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of NK3R agonist senktide on cognitive and neurobehavioral mechanisms in model of AD.50 adult male Wistar albino rats were obtained; Control, AD, Control+NK3R agonist, AD+NK3R agonist, AD+NK3R agonist+antagonist groups. AD model was established by administering Aβ1-42 intracerebroventricularly. Following NK3R agonist+antagonist injections, open field (OF) and Morris water maze (MWM) were applied for behavioral and learning parameters. Hippocampus and cortex tissues were extracted. Analysis of cholinergic mechanisms from these tissues were performed by ELISA method.Group-time effect was significant in OF (p<0.05). Distance moved parameter was significant between groups in MWM (p<0.05). There was a significant difference between groups in AChE and ChAT levels (p<0.05). DA concentrations of brainstem samples were significant (p<0.05). There was no significant difference in NA concentration (p>0.05). NK3R agonists were found to be effective in improving cognitive functions in rats with AD pathology. It has been observed that positive effects on learning and memory performances can be mediated by cholinergic mechanisms.

Deconstructing the side-effect effect: Separate inferences of intentions to harm and to help based on social information

The classic side-effect-effect (SEE) entails judging harmful side-effects more intentional than helpful side-effects. We suggest this effect reflects two distinct components, with people drawing on different social information to disambiguate motives to harm from ambiguous motives, versus motives to help from ambiguous motives. We tested this model by altering social information in several ways. Harmful intentions were impacted by manipulations reducing the diagnosticity of the CEO’s intentions by introducing external pressures (e.g., a gunman demanding they start a harmful program). This pattern suggests that perceptions of harmful intentions reflect inferences about harmful motives in the absence of external pressures. Conversely, helpful intentions were impacted by manipulations of the CEO’s stated intentions. Changing the CEO’s statement to be more pro-environmental flips perceptions from unintentional to probably intentional, eliminating the classic SEE difference between helping and harming intentions. Conversely, verbal justifications do not impact perceptions of harmful intent. Thus, judging harmful actions as intentional depends on unjustified trade-offs—in the absence of justifiable reasons to cause harm, harmful acts speak louder than words. Conversely, perceptions of helpful intent depend on verbal justifications clashing with normative expectations of positive self-presentation. Together, these results support the social information hypothesis, as changing relevant diagnostic social information about the CEO’s intentions changed people’s judgments, even to the point of eliminating the SEE.

Predictability of stock market indexes following large drawdowns and drawups

The efficient market hypothesis is one of the most popular subjects in the empirical finance literature. Previous studies of the stock markets, which are mostly based on fixed-time price variations, have inconclusive findings: evidence of short-term predictability varies according to different samples and methodologies. We propose a novel approach and use drawdowns and drawups as triggers, to investigate the existence of short-term abnormal returns in the stock markets. As these measures are not computed within a fixed time horizon, they are flexible enough to capture subordinate, time-dependent processes that could drive market under- or overreaction. Most estimates in our results support the efficient market hypothesis. The underreaction hypothesis receives stronger support than does overreaction, with higher prevalence of return continuations than reversals. Evidence for the uncertain information hypothesis is present in some markets, mainly after lower-magnitude events.

CONFIRMATION BIAS AS A KIND OF THINKING ILLUSION

Nowadays people need to navigate the information flow. We process and evaluate a large amount of data. The ability of individuals to process objectively and analyze the obtained information plays an important role in modern society. The important characteristics of a modern person are unbiased beliefs and opinions of others and a critical attitude to one's own thoughts and views. Are we able to evaluate our own thoughts impartially? It is known that there is an obvious difference between an unbiased evaluation of evidence in order to come to an impartial conclusion and building a case to justify a conclusion already drawn. In the first case, the individual seeks evidence on all sides of a task, evaluates the information objectively, and draws the conclusion that the evidence, in the aggregate, seems to dictate. In the second case, the individual selectively, gives undue weight to evidence that supports one's position while neglecting evidence that would tell against it. The article provides a theoretical analysis of the concept of «confirmation bias» («myside bias») in cognitive psychology. It considers the approaches that lead to confirmation bias, identifies confirmation biases in the process of forming a hypothesis, and highlights the characteristics of confirmation bias that distinguish it from other heuristics. Keywords: confirmation bias, heuristics, thinking, positive test strategy, information hypothesis.

Combining social information use and comfort-seeking for nest site selection in a cavity-nesting raptor

When selecting a breeding site, individuals can use social information to reduce the uncertainty regarding habitat quality. In particular, individuals from several bird species tend to reuse nests previously occupied by competitors. Re-occupying nests previously used by conspecifics or heterospecifics could result from exploiting social information by copying competitors’ choice (the ‘social information’ hypothesis). Alternatively, it could allow fulfilling the needs for a comfortable nest substrate (e.g. by improving thermal insulation or reducing egg breakage risks) at low costs, regardless of previous occupancy (the ‘comfort’ hypothesis). Here, we aimed to determine which of these two mechanisms triggered the preference for old conspecific nest material in a secondary cavity-nesting raptor which does not add lining materials to its nest, the lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni). Using an experimental design forcing settling lesser kestrels to choose between two adjacent nestboxes containing different substrates, we detected a strong preference for comfortable substrates (peat moss, or conspecific or European roller old nest material) over uncomfortable mineral substrate, especially when the comfortable substrate also provided social information about previous nest use by a competitor. Despite the apparent absence of preference when directly comparing settlement patterns in comfortable substrates with and without social information, early-settling individuals favoured the substrate with social information, while late-settling ones favoured the substrate without social information. This could reflect intraspecific competition avoidance by late arriving individuals that may be competitively inferior compared to early arriving ones. This hypothesis is supported by a later laying date of young (up to two years old) breeders compared to older ones in our population. Our findings suggest that both comfort seeking and social information use explain preference for previously used nest cavities, and that nest site choices may depend on individual competitive abilities and experience.

“The Green Sea Yard of Varna” – the innovative project in the focus of early child development

We present an innovative approach to early child development (ECD), designated as a priority for all societies. Traditional ECD services of the Bulgarian health system are predominantly medical or pedagogical provided by GPs and nurseries. This leaves space for interdisciplinary services based on the ideas of Françoise Dolto focused on child-parent relationships. The Green Sea Yard of Varna, Bulgaria, aims at providing accessible space for early socialization of children and preventive psychosocial services by experts in ECD. The process oriented work combines: psychosocial accompaniment, social group & community work, psychoanalytic consultation with medical expertise. Specialists use direct observation, interviews, analysis of available information, hypothesis development. Questions to be answered: is there a recognized need for a space enhancing and stimulating the interaction between the three main subject in ECD child-parents-specialists; is there a need for a transitional space between the home and kindergarten enabling early child socialization; which are the most prevalent mental and behavioral problems and their earliest symptoms. For 104 working days (December 2018-February 2020), 2 000 visits of 257 children have been performed, including 400 individual consultations of 51 children at risk. Smooth adaptation to nursery was experienced by 15,5% of children. The most prevalent problems are: insufficient to lacking parent-child verbal communication; delayed speech development; aggressive behavior towards peers. The main lessons are: (1) There is a recognized by specialists, families and the community need for transitional spaces enabling children to experience first social encounters and concepts of social rules and norms; (2) the space stimulates both formal and informal quality communication between specialist and parents and mutual informal support between parents; (3) leading to a new view for the child as an autonomous person. Key messages The Green Sea Yard of Varna is the first innovative space for interdisciplinary approach to ECD, early socialization, care & prevention in our community fully applicable to other places and cultures. The project is in line with SDGs, contemporary scientific visions for the first 1000 days of a child's life and the WHO strategy for the prevention of child’s health in the family and in society.

Investor protection and market reaction to unusual market activity replies

PurposeThis study uses the unique setting of unusual market activity (UMA) replies to examine the market reaction and the effects of disclosure and investor protection amid information uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachA total of 1527 hand-collected UMA replies from the interlinked stock exchanges of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore for the period of 2015–2017 were analysed using event study and Heckman two-step methods with market and matched control firm benchmarks.FindingsThe overall results support the uncertain information hypothesis. The UMA replies with new information were also found to reduce information uncertainty, but not information asymmetry, and they are complementary to investor protection in enhancing abnormal returns. The overall finding suggests that the UMA public query system can be an effective market intervention mechanism in improving information certainty and efficiency.Research limitations/implicationsThis study provides insight on the effects of news replies and investor protection on abnormal returns, and support for the uncertain information hypothesis. The finding is useful to policymakers and stock exchanges as they seek to understand how to alleviate investors' anxiety and to create an informationally efficient market. Nevertheless, this study is limited by the extensiveness of the hand-collected UMA replies and also the potential issue of simultaneity-induced endogeneity.Originality/valueThis study uses UMA replies and cross-country data taking into account the effects of market surroundings such as information uncertainty and the level of investor protection on market reaction.

Corporate Social Responsibility Information Disclosure and Innovation Sustainability: Evidence from China

We selected the Chinese A-share listed companies during period of 2007 to 2017 as the research subject, and from the perspective of information and reputation effects, we examined the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) information disclosure and innovation sustainability. The results show that CSR information disclosure has a significant positive relationship with innovation sustainability. Analysis of the effects channel suggests that the information effect plays a dominant role; CSR information disclosure can alleviate the information asymmetry between managers and investors, controlling shareholders and minority shareholders, and alleviate the financing constraint problems, thereby improving innovation sustainability. Our findings support the information hypothesis but not the reputation hypothesis. The relationship between CSR information disclosure and innovation sustainability is more significant in non-state-owned companies. The moderating effect shows that managerial stock incentives can strengthen the positive relationship between CSR information disclosure and innovation sustainability. A series of robustness test results show that the conclusions are reliable. The research is important for promoting the fulfillment of CSR, improving corporate innovation, and promoting the healthy development of the capital market.