Digitization, Prediction, and Market Efficiency: Evidence from Book Publishing Deals

Digitization has given creators direct access to consumers as well as a plethora of new data for suppliers of new products to draw on. We study how this affects market efficiency in the context of book publishing. Using data on about 50,000 license deals over more than 10 years, we identify the effects of digitization from quasi-experimental variation across book types. Consistent with digitization generating additional information for predicting product appeal, we show that the size of license payments more accurately reflects a product’s ex post success, and more so for publishers that invest more in data analytics. These effects cannot be fully explained by changes in bargaining power or in demand. We estimate that efficiency gains are worth between 10% and 18% of publishers’ total investments in book deals. Thus, digitization can have large impacts on the allocation of resources across products of varying qualities in markets in which product appeal has traditionally been difficult to predict ex ante. This paper was accepted by Joshua Gans, business strategy.

EXPRESS: The Effect of Slow Motion Video on Consumer Inference

Video advertisements often show actors and influence agents consuming and enjoying products in slow motion. By prolonging depictions of influence agents’ consumption utility, slow motion cinematographic effects ostensibly enhance social proof and signal product qualities that are otherwise difficult to infer visually (e.g., pleasant tastes, smells, haptic sensations, etc.). Seven studies including an eye-tracking study, a Facebook Ads field experiment, and lab and online experiments—all using real ads across diverse contexts—demonstrate that slow motion (vs. natural speed) can backfire and undercut product appeal by making the influence agent’s behavior seem more intentional and extrinsically motivated. The authors rule out several alternative explanations by showing that the effect attenuates for individuals with lower intentionality bias, is mitigated under cognitive load, and reverses when ads use non-human influence agents. The authors conclude by highlighting the potential for cross-pollination between visual information processing and social cognition research, particularly in contexts such as persuasion and trust, and discuss managerial implications for visual marketing, especially on digital and social platforms.

“It’s all About the Colors:” How do Mexico City Youth Perceive Cigarette Pack Design

Objectives: Cigarette packs are relevant to branding strategies, designed to appeal to specific groups. There is little research on how pack features increase product appeal among key constituents such as youth in low- and middle-income countries.Methods: We conducted 10 focus group discussions (FGDs) with adolescents and 5 FGDs with young adult smokers in Mexico City, separated by age, gender, smoking, and socioeconomic status. Participants separated 23 cigarette packs into “appealing” and “unappealing” groups, and were asked to explain their decisions, describing the features that supported their views. FGDs were video-recorded, transcribed in Spanish, translated into English, and subjected to thematic analysis.Results: Pack groupings did not differ greatly across FGDs; bold, contrasting colors and elements communicating flavor and promotion increased cigarette pack appeal and desire to try. Participants perceived packs with these features to be used by and designed for youth, like themselves.Conclusion: Our findings reinforce the importance of packaging design in attracting new consumers and maintaining current ones. Mexico should consider stronger tobacco advertising policies that include packaging color and depiction of flavor to reduce product appeal.

Tobacco advertising features that may contribute to product appeal among US adolescents and young adults

Introduction Cigarette advertising is a causal agent of smoking uptake among young people. Although prior research links ad receptivity to tobacco product interest and use, little is known regarding the specific advertising tactics associated with increased product appeal among young people. Methods A national sample of 13-20 year-olds (N=3,688, youth) and 21-24 year-olds (N=1,556, young adults) in the United States participated in an online survey in 2017 (mean age 18.1 years). The majority (72.0%) of youth and nearly half (44.8%) of young adults were never smokers. Participants were shown a cigarette ad, randomly assigned from a pool of 50 advertisements, and reported how much they liked the ad, and were curious about and interested in using the advertised product. All 50 advertisements were content analyzed for a variety of features. Data from the survey and content analysis were merged and mixed effects analyses used to identify the features associated with increased liking, curiosity, and interest in using, referred to collectively as product appeal. Results Presence of a sweepstakes offer was associated with increased liking, curiosity and interest among youth and curiosity and interest among young adults. Outdoors settings, flora imagery, natural descriptors, and environmental themes were associated with increased appeal. Price reductions (e.g., coupons) were associated with decreased appeal among youth. Conclusions This study identified several advertising tactics associated with increased appeal among youth and young adults. If additional research confirms these findings, the U.S. Food and Drug Association should consider restricting use of these tactics in tobacco advertising.

Australian smokers’ experiences and perceptions of recessed and firm filter cigarettes

BackgroundWhile cigarette filter modifications have long been used to increase product appeal and assuage health concerns, tighter marketing restrictions, including plain packaging, have further spurred the growth of filter variants. We explored and assessed experiences and perceptions of smokers who had tried and/or currently use recessed filter cigarettes (RFCs) and firm filter cigarettes (FFCs).MethodIn November 2018, we undertook eight exploratory focus groups of Australian adult factory-made cigarette smokers (total n=56). In July 2019, we surveyed 999 smokers aged 18–69 years to quantify ever and current use of these products and associated beliefs and sensory experiences.ResultsFocus group and survey findings were consistent. Among 988 smokers who had at least tried factory-made cigarettes, 28.9% had tried FFCs and 11.1% currently smoked these, while 36.4% had tried RFCs and 7.5% currently smoked these. Smokers in both studies believed these filters may reduce harm and that FFCs increase appeal. In the survey, 58.9% of RFC triers agreed these hide the filter’s brown stain and 48.9% agreed that RFCs keep harmful substances away from the mouth. Similarly, 58.4% of FFC triers agreed these trap more harmful substances than standard filters. Relative to standard filter cigarettes, more smokers experienced FFCs and RFCs as feeling clean (p=0.03) and more current FFC users experienced these as feeling smooth (p=0.01).ConclusionRFCs and FFCs undermine plain packaging legislation, which aims to reduce appeal and minimise misperceptions about the relative harms of different tobacco products. Like other filter modifications, these filter variants should be disallowed.

Efficacy of Canadian health warning statements on caffeinated energy drinks: an experimental study among young Canadians

The current study examined the efficacy of health warnings on caffeinated energy drinks (CEDs). Participants aged 12–24 years (n = 2040) completed an online survey where they were asked to recall any existing warning statements on CED products and were randomized to one of 29 experimental warning conditions. Regression models were fitted to examine differences between conditions in product appeal, perceived safety and message recall. Overall, fewer than 30% of participants were able to accurately describe an existing CED product warning. Experimental findings indicated that exposure to CEDs with warning labels resulted in greater recall. Warnings on the back of CED cans featuring large font, a border, and a ‘caution’ heading resulted in significantly greater recall (P < 0.05 for all). Front-of-package ‘High source of caffeine’ labels resulted in greater recall than a quantitative description (P < 0.001); caffeine labels generally elicited lower product appeal (P < 0.001) and perceived safety (P = 0.002) ratings vs. no caffeine labels, and the qualitative caffeine statement elicited lower perceived safety ratings than the quantitative statement (P = 0.02). Existing warning statements in Canada have low levels of awareness. Warnings on CEDs could be enhanced to increase the salience of messages, with greater impact from clear, descriptive, front-of-package ‘High source of caffeine’ labels.

PENERAPAN SYARI’AT ISLAM PADA SISTEM MULTI LEVEL MARKETING SYARI’AH HERBA PENAWAR AL WAHIDA (HPA) STUDI KASUS DI PEKANBARU

Herba's firm Al Wahida's Bidder (HPA) are corporate one move at doctor sell areas an herbs by uses Multi's sell system Marketing Syariah's Levels . There is aim even of research to know how Multi's system Marketing Syariah Herba's level Al Wahida's Bidder (HPA), any kind resistor factor in Multi's performing Marketing Syariah Herba's Level Al Wahida's Bidder (HPA), and how economic analysis Islamicing to Multi's system Marketing Syariah Herba's Level Al Wahida's Bidder (HPA). This observational location gets address at Jl. Jend. Sudirman No. 168 Pekanbaru Pekanbaru Telp (0761) 24108. There is method even data collecting that is utilized in this research is interview, observation, bibliographical research, documentation. Technics data analysis utilizes kualitatif's descriptive analytic-method, meanwhile technics inscriptive data which is deductively, inductive, descriptive analytic. Population in observational it is branch member HPA Pekanbaru that total 100 person. Of that amount researcher takes sample as big as 30 %. Methodics sample take which is Random is sampling. Observational finding at the site declares for that Multi's system Marketing Syariah Herba's Level Al Wahida's Bidder (HPA) are may, since doesn't contain element ghoror or fraud, according to syari’at islam, and kosher warrantee product. But upon currently so a lot of MLM'S system amends and one takes after MLM as system of PYRAMID, MONEY IS GAME, so society is hard to differentiate it. On eventually member HPA there are many that passive deep going that MLM'S network. Corporate party also still reducing in give good grasp to member about MLM Syari ’ ah, and its reducing HPA'S product socialization to society is added again at the price it what do come under precious at product appeal a sort another makes consumers tend to choose cheaper product despite of kehalalan and its quality is still at hesitates.

Flavor and Nicotine Effects on E-cigarette Appeal in Young Adults: Moderation by Reason for Vaping

Objectives: Effective regulations that reduce nicotine vaping among young adult dual (combustible and e-cigarette) users may differ depending on whether e-cigarettes are used for helping with smoking cessation. This laboratory experiment examined flavor and nicotine effects on e-cigarette product appeal among young adult dual users, stratified by reported use of e-cigarettes to quit smoking. Methods: Dual users aged 18-35 years that did (N = 31) or did not (N = 22) report vaping for the purpose of quitting smoking puffed e-cigarette solutions varied by a flavor (fruit, menthol, tobacco) and nicotine (nicotine-containing [6 mg/mL], nicotine-free) with-in-participant design. After puffing each solution, participants rated appeal. Results: In main effect analyses, non-tobacco (vs tobacco) flavors increased appeal and nicotine-containing (vs nicotine free) solutions reduced appeal similarly in dual users who did and did not vape to quit smoking. Interaction analyses found non-significant trend evidence that fruit and menthol flavors suppressed nicotine's appeal-reducing effects more powerfully in those that did not vape to quit smoking (flavor × nicotine × vape to quit smoking, ps = .05-.06). Conclusions: Non-tobacco flavors might increase e-cigarette product appeal in young adult dual users overall and disproportionately suppress nicotine's appeal-reducing effects in those that vape for purposes other than assisting with smoking cessation.