Time‐between‐events monitoring using nonhomogeneous Poisson process with power law intensity

Author(s):  
Sajid Ali
Author(s):  
Shaul K. Bar-Lev ◽  
Frank A. van der Duyn Schouten

Recently, Bar-Lev, Bshouty and Van der Duyn Schouten [Math. Methods Stat. 25 (2016) 79–980] developed a systematic method, called operator-based intensity function, for constructing huge classes of nonmonotonic intensity functions (convex or concave) for the nonhomogeneous Poisson process, all of which are suitable for modeling bathtub data. Each class is parametrized by several parameters (as scale and shape parameters) in addition to the operator index parameter [Formula: see text]. For the sake of demonstration only, we focus in this paper on a special subclass called the exponential power law process (EXPLP[Formula: see text]) whose base function is the intensity function of the power-law process. We describe various properties of such a subclass and use one of its special case, namely EXPLP[Formula: see text] intensity function, to analyze failure data which lack monotonicity. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters involved and relevant functions thereof is discussed with respect various aspects as existence, uniqueness, asymptotic behavior and statistical inference facets. Using two real datasets from the literature we provide evidence that the EXPLP[Formula: see text] intensity function is well suited to analyze data which exhibit a bathtub behavior.


2014 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 752-765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Deng ◽  
Xiaoxi Zhang ◽  
Qi Long

In multi-regional trials, the underlying overall and region-specific accrual rates often do not hold constant over time and different regions could have different start-up times, which combined with initial jump in accrual within each region often leads to a discontinuous overall accrual rate, and these issues associated with multi-regional trials have not been adequately investigated. In this paper, we clarify the implication of the multi-regional nature on modeling and prediction of accrual in clinical trials and investigate a Bayesian approach for accrual modeling and prediction, which models region-specific accrual using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and allows the underlying Poisson rate in each region to vary over time. The proposed approach can accommodate staggered start-up times and different initial accrual rates across regions/centers. Our numerical studies show that the proposed method improves accuracy and precision of accrual prediction compared to existing methods including the nonhomogeneous Poisson process model that does not model region-specific accrual.


1991 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Assaf ◽  
Benny Levikson

Suppose we have a single asset that we would like to sell. As time goes by, independent and identically distributed offers with a common known distribution F are given to us. At any given moment, we may either accept the current offer or reject it, thereby losing it forever. The rate at which offers arrive follows a nonhomogeneous Poisson process whose instantaneous intensity is under our control, using advertizing in a manner to be described. Our objective is, roughly, that of maximizing the total discounted expected reward composed of the offer we decide to accept, minus the total advertizing costs.


2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. K. Bar-Lev ◽  
D. Bshouty ◽  
F. A. van der Duyn Schouten

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