Urban Growth Modeling and Prediction of Land Use Land Cover Change Over Nagpur City, India Using Cellular Automata Approach

Author(s):  
Farhan Khan ◽  
Bhumika Das ◽  
Pir Mohammad

Rapid growth and development of urban area is a worldwide phenomenon and it has become one of the certain issues facing by most of the urban areas in developing countries like India. The foremost reasons of this type of speedy growth are uncontrolled urbanisation coupled with accelerated population growth, massive influx of illegal immigrants and unorganized expansion of the urban areas. Accordingly, urban growth led to radical changes in land-use/ land-cover, which manifests profound impact on urban environment through the process of fast alteration of natural landscapes. In this context, the present study aims at comparing the pattern of urban growth and concerning land use and land cover change dynamics of two emerging frontier cities in India i.e., Silchar and Balurghat. For the purpose of the study, multi-temporal Landsat data have been used for analysing land use/ land cover changes in both cities for the period of 1988-2019.Hence, land use and land cover maps are prepared by applying maximum likelihood algorithm of supervised classification method with the help of ERDAS Imagine software. The accuracy assessment was also done by applying statistical method of Kappa coefficient. Further, the study reveals that both the cities have experienced with rapid rate of horizontal expansion. This has led to drastic change with sharpe conversion of vegetation and open field to built-up areas and which have caused innumerable environmental problems and hampers the sustainable growth of both two cities. Therefore, there has been dire need for proper planning to sustain balance of future urban growth and overall development of the areas


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-58
Author(s):  
Omar S. Belhaj ◽  
Stanley T. Mubako

Rapid and unplanned urbanization presents a formidable challenge to sustainable urban growth in most developing countries. This study applies Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing tools to quantify land use and land cover change in the coastal, economically important district of Khoms, Libya. The study revealed a 16% per year long-term historic urban growth rate, leading to an urbanization increase of 658% from just 800 ha in 1976 to 6,067 ha in 2015 over the 40-year analysis period. Qualitative evaluation of satellite images showed devastating impacts on both terrestrial and marine ecosystems through broad scale clearing of forests and other native areas for agriculture and urban development, and through reclamation of the Mediterranean Sea during the construction of a naval base and port at Khoms City. An integrated approach that explores of a range of innovative approaches to address sustainable development issues faced by Khoms District and other similar fast growing but environmentally fragile developing country locations is recommended.


Urban Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bright Addae ◽  
Natascha Oppelt

A rapid increase in the world’s population over the last century has triggered the transformation of the earth surface, especially in urban areas, where more than half of the global population live. Ghana is no exception and a high population growth rate, coupled with economic development over the last three decades, has transformed the Greater Accra region into a hotspot for massive urban growth. The urban extent of the region has expanded extensively, mainly at the expense of the vegetative cover in the region. Although urbanization presents several opportunities, the environmental and social problems cannot be underestimated. Therefore, the need to estimate the rate and extent of land use/land cover changes in the region and the main drivers of these changes is imperative. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques provide effective tools in studying and monitoring land-use/land-cover change over space and time. A post classification change detection of multiple Landsat images was conducted to map and analyse the extent and rate of land use/land cover change in the region between 1991 and 2015. Subsequently, the urban extent of the region was forecasted for the year 2025 using the Markov Chain and the Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network, together with drivers representing proximity, biophysical, and socio-economic variables. The results from the research revealed that built-up areas increased by 277% over the 24-year study period. However, forest areas experienced massive reduction, diminishing from 34% in 1991 to 6.5% in 2015. The 2025 projected land use map revealed that the urban extent will massively increase to cover 70% of the study area, as compared to 44% in 2015. The urban extent is also anticipated to spill into the adjoining districts mainly on the western and eastern sides of the region. The success of this research in generating a future land-use map for 2025, together with the other significant findings, demonstrates the usefulness of spatial models as tools for sustainable city planning and environmental management, especially for urban planners in developing countries.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document