Impacts of Urban Expansion on the Loss and Fragmentation of Cropland in the Major Grain Production Areas of China

The continuous expansion of urban land has led to massive encroachment upon cropland. To examine the impacts of urban expansion on the loss and fragmentation of cropland in China’s nine major grain production areas (MGPAs), we used standard deviation ellipse, land use transfer matrix, land use dynamic degree, and landscape metric to explore the spatio-temporal evolutions, mutual transfer, and landscape patterns of cropland and urban land. The results show the following: (1) From 1995 to 2018, the areas of cropland in MGPAs showed a trend of “short-term increase—long-term decrease—short-term increase”, while that of urban land grew continuously; (2) Urban expansion is the main cause of cropland loss. The cropland area converted to urban land accounts for a large proportion (49.26%) of the total transfer of cropland to other land types, especially in the densely populated, rapidly urbanizing and industrializing Taihu Lake Plain, Jianghuai Region, and Pearl River Delta; (3) In most MGPAs, urban expansion has led to fragmentation of cropland, especially in the Pearl River Delta, as indicated by the significant change of patch density. However, in the Sanjiang Plain and Songnen Plain, a less pronounced or even reduced cropland fragmentation was observed due to the significant conversion of other land types to cropland under specific land policies. From these results, we suggest that the government should regulate the encroachment of urban land on cropland and the transfer of natural land to it, and encourage the rural land consolidation to increase the cropland.

Impact of urban expansion on continental- to regional-scale warming

Although the influence of land use/land cover change on climate has become increasingly apparent, cities and other built-up areas are usually ignored when estimating large-scale historical climate change or for future projections since cities cover a small fraction of the terrestrial land surface1,2. As such, ground-based observations of urban near-surface meteorology are rare and most earth system models do not represent historical or future urban land cover3–7. Here, by combining global satellite observations of land surface temperature with historical estimates of built-up area, we demonstrate that the urban temperature signal on continental- to regional-scale warming has become non-negligible, especially for rapidly urbanizing regions in Asia. Consequently, expected urban expansion over the next century suggest further increased urban influence on surface climate under all future climate scenarios. Based on these results, we argue that, in line with other forms of land use/land cover change, urbanization should be explicitly included in future climate change assessments. This would require extensive model development to incorporate urban extent and biophysics in current-generation earth system models to quantify potential urban feedbacks on the climate system at multiple scales.

Modelling and simulating ‘informal urbanization’: An integrated agent-based and cellular automata model of urban residential growth in Ghana

The global urban population is expected to grow by 2.5 billion over the next three decades, and 90% of this growth will occur in African and Asian countries. Urban expansion in these regions is often characterised by ‘informal urbanization’ whereby households self-build without planning permission in contexts of ambiguous, insecure or disputed property rights. Despite the scale of informal urbanization, it has received little attention from scholars working in the domains of urban analytics and city science. Towards addressing this gap, we introduce TI-City, an urban growth model designed to predict the locations, legal status and socio-economic status of future residential developments in an African city. In a bottom-up approach, we use agent-based and cellular automata modelling techniques to predict the geospatial behaviour of key urban development actors, including households, real estate developers and government. We apply the model to the city-region of Accra, Ghana, drawing on local data collection, including a household survey, to parameterise the model. Using a multi-spatial-scale validation technique, we compare TI-City’s ability to simulate historically observed built-up patterns with SLEUTH, a highly popular urban growth model. Results show that TI-City outperforms SLEUTH at each scale, suggesting the model could offer a valuable decision support tool in similar city contexts.

Monitoring Urban Expansion and Loss of Agriculture on the North Coast of West Java Province, Indonesia, Using Google Earth Engine and Intensity Analysis

Uncontrolled urban expansion resulting from urbanization has a disastrous impact on agricultural land. This situation is being experienced by the densely populated and fertile island Java in Indonesia. Remote sensing technologies have developed rapidly in recent years, including the creation of Google Earth Engine (GEE). Intensity analysis (IA) is increasingly being used to systematically and substantially analyze land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. As yet, however, no study of land conversion from agriculture to urban areas in Indonesia has adopted GEE and IA approaches simultaneously. Therefore, this study aims to monitor urban penetration to agricultural land in the north coastal region of West Java Province by applying both methods to two time intervals: 2003–2013 and 2013–2020. Landsat data and a robust random forest (RF) classifier available in GEE were chosen for producing LULC maps. Monitoring LULC change using GEE and IA has demonstrated reliable findings. The overall accuracy of Landsat image classification results for 2003, 2013, and 2020 were 88%, 87%, and 88%, respectively. IA outputs at interval levels for all categories showed that the annual change-of-area rate was higher during 2013–2020 than during 2003–2013. At the category level, IA results showed that the area of agricultural land experienced net losses in both periods, with net loss in 2013–2020 being 2.3 times greater than that in 2003–2013 (∼1,850 ha per year). In contrast, the built-up area made net gains in both periods, reaching almost twice as much in the second period as in the first (∼2,030 ha per year). The transition-level IA performed proved that agricultural land had been the primary target for the expansion of built-up areas. The most extensive spatial distribution of land conversion from agriculture to built-up area was concentrated in the regencies of Bekasi, Karawang, and Cirebon. These findings are intended to provide stakeholders with enrichment in terms of available literature and with valuable inputs useful for identifying better urban and regional planning policies in Indonesia and similar regions.

A Structural Equation Modeling Approach to Disentangling Regional-Scale Landscape Dynamics in Ghana

Land cover (LC) change is an integrative indicator of changes in ecosystems due to anthropogenic or natural forcings. There is a significant interest in the investigation of spatio-temporal patterns of LC transitions, and the causes and consequences thereof. While the advent of satellite remote sensing techniques have enhanced our ability to track and measure LC changes across the globe, significant gaps remain in disentangling specific factors that influence, or in certain cases, are influenced by, LC change. This study aims to investigate the relative influence of regional-scale bioclimatology and local-scale anthropogenic factors in driving LC and environmental change in Ghana. This analysis builds upon previous research in the region that has highlighted multiple drivers of LC change in the region, especially via drivers such as deforestation, urbanization, and agricultural expansion. It used regional-scale remotely sensed, demographic, and environmental data for Ghana across 20 years and developed path models on causal factors influencing LC transitions in Ghana. A two-step process is utilized wherein causal linkages from an exploratory factor analysis (EFA) are constrained with literature-based theoretical constructs to implement a regional-scale partial least squares path model (PLSPM). The PLSPM reveals complex interrelationships among drivers of LC change that vary across the geography of Ghana. The model suggests strong effects of local urban expansion on deforestation and vegetation losses in urban and peri-urban areas. Losses of vegetation are in turn related to increases in local heating patterns indicative of urban heat island effects. Direct effects of heat islands are however masked by strong latitudinal gradients in climatological factors. The models confirm that decreases in vegetation cover results in increased land surface albedo that is indirectly related to urban and population expansion. These empirically-estimated causal linkages provide insights into complex spatio-temporal variations in potential drivers of LC change. We expect these models and spatial data products to form the basis for detailed investigations into the mechanistic underpinnings of land cover dynamics across Ghana. These analyses are aimed at building a template for methods that can be utilized to holistically design spatially-disaggregated strategies for sustainable development across Ghana.