Fuzzy logic is a technique that attempts to systematically and mathematically emulate human reasoning. This paper investigates the feasibility of applying fuzzy logic to transportation and shipbuilding market modeling, analysis and forecasting. Fuzzy systems called fuzzy decision modelers (FDMs) are developed based on fuzzy logic techniques to model the crude oil tanker freight rate market, the tanker new order market and the tanker scrapping market. Our results show that the FDMs are able to model and forecast these economic systems very well. In addition, the FDMs also provide valuable insights into market mechanisms and market participants' decision-making patterns. The FDMs are mathematical model-free, nonlinear systems capable of capturing complicated relationships among economic variables. The FDMs are easy to develop and easy to interpret. These advantages of fuzzy systems suggest that fuzzy logic techniques are a promising alternative in shipping and shipbuilding market modeling, analysis and forecasting.
Estimating risk‐neutral freight rate dynamics: A nonparametric approach
