Queue forming behind a bus stop on an urban street is common and a traffic bottleneck usually occurs around the bus stop area. The bus stop failure means arriving buses cannot move into the bus stop due to limited capacity but have to wait for available loading areas. It is related with the transit operation level. Traditionally, the failure rate (FR), defined as the percentage of buses that arrives at the bus stop to find all loading areas occupied, is adopted in bus capacity analysis. However, the concept of FR is unable to quantitatively analyze failure characteristics in terms of its dispersion and uncertainty over time. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a new index called failure duration rate (FDR) to evaluate the bus stop failure, which can characterize waiting time for traffic delay calculation and capacity drop estimation. The automatic vehicle location data at eight bus stops in Wujiang District Suzhou, China, over 56 working days, are used to analyze the temporal characteristics of FR and FDR. We next examined the failed service duration characteristics during peak hours at the eight bus stops. Based on these characteristics analyses, we then proposed a Distribution Fitting and Cumulative Distribution Correlation (DF-CDC) approach to explore the correlation between FDR and FR at the same cumulative distribution function levels and validated the bus stop failure performance using the cross-validation method. The analysis results revealed that (i) FR fluctuates more significant than FDR, (ii) FDR is a more robust index than FR in describing the traffic characteristics incurred by bus stop failures, and (iii) FDR performs better in failure characteristics analysis than FR.
On exact scaling log-infinitely divisible cascades
