Exact Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithms and Their Applications in Probabilistic Data Analysis and Inference

This chapter describes algorithms that use Markov chains for generating exact sample values from complex distributions, and discusses their use in probabilistic data analysis and inference. Its purpose is to disseminate these ideas more widely so that their use will become more widespread, thereby improving Monte Carlo simulation results and stimulating greater research interest in the algorithms themselves. The chapter begins by introducing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which stems from the idea that sample values from a desired distribution f can be obtained from the stationary states of an ergodic Markov chain whose stationary distribution is f. To get sample values that have distribution f exactly, it is necessary to detect when the Markov chain has reached its stationary distribution. Under certain conditions, this can be achieved by means of coupled Markov chains—these conditions and the resulting exact MCMC or perfect sampling algorithms and their applications are described.