The probability approach to index number theory

2011 ◽  
pp. 612-650
Author(s):  
Frederick E. Croxton ◽  
Dudley J. Cowden

1998 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 456-471 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Erwin Diewert

This paper studies the problems of measuring economic growth under conditions of high inflation. Traditional bilateral index number theory implicitly assumes that variations in the price of a commodity within a period can be ignored. To justify this assumption under conditions of high inflation, the accounting period must be shortened to a quarter, a month, or possibly a week. However, once the accounting period is less than a year, the problem of seasonal commodities is encountered; i.e., in some subannual periods, many seasonal commodities will be unavailable and hence the usual bilateral index number theory cannot be applied. The paper systematically reviews the problems of index number construction when there are seasonal commodities and high inflation. Various index number formulas are justified from the viewpoint of the economic approach to index number theory by making separability assumptions on consumers' intertemporal preferences. We find that accurate economic measurement under conditions of high inflation is very complex.


2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (S2) ◽  
pp. 335-380 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Erwin Diewert ◽  
Hideyuki Mizobuchi

The traditional economic approach to index number theory is based on a ratio of cost functions. Diewert defined superlative price and quantity indices as observable indices that were exact for a ratio of unit cost functions or for a ratio of linearly homogeneous utility functions. The present paper looks for counterparts to his results in the difference context, for both flexible homothetic and flexible nonhomothetic preferences. The Bennet indicators of price and quantity change turn out to be superlative for the nonhomothetic case. The underlying preferences are of the translation-homothetic form discussed by Balk, Chambers, Dickenson, Färe, and Grosskopf.


2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (S1) ◽  
pp. 90-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
William A. Barnett ◽  
Liting Su

While credit cards provide transactions services, as do currency and demand deposits, credit cards have never been included in measures of the money supply. The reason is accounting conventions, which do not permit adding liabilities, such as credit card balances, to assets, such as money. However, economic aggregation theory and index number theory measure service flows and are based on microeconomic theory, not accounting. Barnett et al. derived the aggregation and index number theory needed to measure the joint services of credit cards and money. They derived and applied the theory under the assumption of risk neutrality. But since credit card interest rates are high and volatile, risk aversion may not be negligible. We extend the theory by removing the assumption of risk neutrality to permit risk aversion in the decision of the representative consumer.


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