Central bank digital currency, loan supply, and bank failure risk: a microeconomic approach

Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which are legal tenders in digital form, are expected to reduce currency issuance and circulation costs and broaden the scope of monetary policy. In addition, these currencies may also reduce consumers’ need for conventional demand deposits, which, in turn, increases banks’ loan provision costs because deposits require higher rates of return. We use a microeconomic banking model to investigate the effects of introducing an economy-wide, account-type CBDC on a bank’s loan supply and its failure risk. Given that a CBDC is expected to lower the cost of liquidity circulation and become a strong substitute for demand deposits, both the loan supply and the bank failure risk increase. These increases are countered by subsequent increases in the rates of return on term deposits and loans, which, in turn, reduce the loan supply and thus bank failure risk. These offsetting forces lead to no significant change in banking, as long as the rate of return on loans is below a certain threshold. However, once the rate is above the threshold, bank failure risk increases, thereby undermining banking stability. The problem is more pronounced when the degree of pass-through of funding costs to the loan rate is high and the profitability of a successful project is low. Our results imply that central banks wishing to introduce an economy-wide, account-type CBDC should first monitor yields on bank loans and consider policy measures that induce banks to maintain adequate liquidity reserve levels.

Features of cash audit in the conditions of ensuring the enterprise’s cybersecurity

Introduction. Today, cash accounting transactions are important in the organization and activities of any enterprise, because they cover almost all areas of its financial and economic activities and require significant attention from the auditor, as during their implementation may occur various violations and overuses by officials of the enterprise. Since cash is the most mobile asset and in today’s business environment, basically, all cash payments are non-cash (electronically), there is a high probability of overuse by third parties. Therefore, performing an audit of cash operations and implementation cybersecurity of data about their calculations is an extremely important issue to increase the efficiency of accounting and management them in enterprises. The purpose of the paper is to determine the role of cash audit for the company and ways to increase efficiency of its implementation in terms of cybersecurity of the enterprise. Results. The article acquaints with the work of various economists on the interpretation of the concept of “cash”, so we can say that cash – are the most liquid assets of the company, which are in the form of cash at the box office, cash in the bank accounts and demand deposits. The general strategy and the plan of cash audit in terms of cybersecurity of the enterprise are considered. The main reasons occurrence of problem ensuring of cybersecurity of operations with cash of the enterprise are indicated. An appropriate level of information security for cash transactions has been proposed in order to prevent threats in the enterprise. Ways to damage information security in the process of conducting an audit of cash of the enterprise are improved. Conclusions. Cash audit must be conducted in conjunction with the implementation of the necessary cybersecurity measures in the enterprise in order to reduce the level of disclosure, leakage and unauthorized access to confidential information about cash and to ensure a high level of protection of the company’s own information sources.

Modeling Non-Maturing Demand Deposits: A Proposed Methodology to Determining the Idiosyncratic Confidence Level Used for Separating Stable Deposit Volumes From Volatile Deposit Volumes

This paper aims to develop a methodology for the estimation of the idiosyncratic confidence level inherent within the process of determining the threshold of separation between volatile and stable deposit volumes. The idiosyncratic confidence level must be reflective of the institution’s specific risk preferences and liquidity risk management policies as anchored into the Principle 9 of the European Banking Authority and Basel Committee for Banking Supervision recommendations. We illustrate the proposed methodology by including liquidity constraints from the Basel III regulatory recommendations introduced in 2013. Furthermore, we point to other ancillary applications of such procedures in the financial risk management practice.

Interest on reserves, helicopter money and new monetary policy

We build a nonlinear dynamic model with currency, demand deposits and bank reserves. Monetary base is controlled by central bank, while money supply is determined by the interactions between central bank, commercial banks and public. In economic crises when banks cut loans, monetary policy following a Taylor rule is not efficient. Negative interest on reserves or forward guidance is effective, but deflation is still likely to be persistent. If central bank simultaneously targets both interest rate and money supply by a Taylor rule and a Friedman’s k-percent rule, inflation and output are stabilized. An interest rate rule policy is just a subset of a more general monetary policy framework in which central bank can move interest rate and money supply in every direction.

DEPOSIT POLICY OF BANKS OF UKRAINE IN CONDITIONS OF COVID-2019 PANDEMIC

The pandemic COVID-2019 has been an unexpected challenge for the economies of many countries. In order to avoid the rapid spread of the disease, the governments of most countries imposed quarantine, forcibly closed borders, imposed restrictions on the movement of the population, and so on. Obviously, this provoked instability in financial markets, sharp fluctuations in national exchange rates and worsened the economic expectations of the population. In the scientific article, the authors conducted a study of the deposit policy of Ukrainian banks in this economic instability, which was provoked by the COVID-2019 pandemic. Based on statistical data, the structure of deposits of legal entities and individuals, the dynamics of interest rates, the regional distribution of deposits, as well as identified the leading banks to raise funds. The authors obtained unexpected conclusions about the lack of significant impact of the pandemic on the deposit market. Despite all the negative forecasts, there was no significant outflow of deposits in Ukraine, rather the opposite — banks were able to increase the amount of funds raised from individuals and legal entities. However, the negative expectations of the population affected the structure of deposit resources, in particular, in the analyzed period the share of demand deposits and short-term deposits increased significantly. Based on the analysis of experts’ opinions, as well as the forecast of the main economic indicators that have an impact on the deposit market, three scenarios for further development of Ukraine’s economy and the banking sector were developed and substantiated — optimistic, critical and realistic. According to the authors, the most reasonable in these conditions may be a realistic scenario that will provide positive dynamics in the growth of basic economic indicators, which will affect the growth of deposit resources in banks, while taking into account potential non-economic risks that could destabilize the situation. The findings can be applied in developing strategies for the development of individual banks and the banking system as a whole. Keywords: deposits, deposit policy of banks, pandemic, financial resources, banks, financial risks. JEL Classification G21, E58 Formulas: 0; fig.: 4; tabl.: 10; bibl.: 13.

Analisa Penerimaan Dan Pengelolaan Dana Nasabah Pada Bank Jateng Cabang Koordinator Magelang

The purpose of this study was to determine the Acceptance and Management of Customer Funds at Bank Jateng, Magelang Coordinator Branch. This type of research is qualitative, because it emphasizes the process that is taken from the phenomenon and then the conclusion is drawn. The object of this research came from 20 informants or resource persons who work at the Bank Jateng, Magelang Coordinator Branch. The data source of this study came from an informant who was interviewed structurally. Based on the data analysis, it can be concluded that: (1) Receipt of customer funds at the Magelang Coordinator Branch Bank Jateng uses the accrual-based method. Where the funds received by the Magelang Coordinator Branch Bank Central Java can be in the form of demand deposits, savings deposits, and time deposits. These funds are collected from the community. (2) Management of customer funds at the Magelang Coordinator Branch Bank Central Java uses a cash-based method. The management of customer funds at Bank Jateng, the Coordinator of Magelang Branch, is in the form of loans, such as: PLO credit, Small Business Credit (KUK), Multipurpose Credit, People's Business Credit (KUR), KFW Loans, and additional business capital for family business activities.

Market Share Bank Syariah Terhadap Institusi Keuangan Syariah di Indonesia

Sharia banking is a sharia financial institution that is considered to have contributed to the national economy. Judging from the value of the market share owned by Islamic banking, it is still relatively low compared to Malaysia. This study aims to determine the effect of Islamic capital market products and Islamic banking on the market share of Islamic banking assets in Indonesia. The Islamic capital market products used are in the form of Islamic stocks, corporate sukuk and Islamic mutual funds. Meanwhile, in Islamic banking, there are Islamic demand deposits, Islamic savings and Islamic deposits. Empirically the focus of this research is using monthly time series data from January 2014 to December 2019. This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis method. The estimation results of this study indicate that in the long term, corporate sukuk, sharia demand deposits and Islamic savings have a positive and significant effect on the market share of Islamic banking assets in Indonesia. Meanwhile, Islamic mutual funds and Islamic deposits have a negative and significant effect. Meanwhile, Islamic stocks have a negative and insignificant effect on the market share of Islamic banking assets in Indonesia. On the other hand, in the short term only Islamic deposits have a positive and significant effect. Corporate sukuk has a positive and insignificant effect, while Islamic stocks, Islamic mutual funds, Islamic demand deposits and Islamic savings have a negative and insignificant effect on the market share of Islamic banking assets in Indonesia.

Austrian business cycle theory: are 100 percent reserves sufficient to prevent a business cycle?

Economists in the tradition of the Austrian school have shown that one type of maturity mismatching can cause maladjustments and business cycles.1 When banks expand credit, by granting loans and creating demand deposits, they generate immediately withdrawable liabilities to finance longer-term loans. The newly created demand deposits do not represent a reduction of consumption, i.e., that characterized by real savings. As a con sequence, in terest rates are artificially reduced under the level they would have been in a free market reflecting real savings and time preference rates.2 Thus, entrepreneurs are prone to engage in more and longer projects than could be financed with the available supply of real savings. Before all projects that are financed by the credit expansion are finished, a bust occurs. An absence of realsavings to sustain the factors of production in the production pro cesses and to produce complementary and necessary capital goods becomes evident. As a result, malinvestments are liquidated and the structure of production is brought in line with consumer preferences again. This is the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) in a nutshell. As a remedy Austrian economists such as Selgin (1988) and White (1999) have argued that a free banking system would be a means to inhibit the excessive credit expansion that causes business cycles. They maintain that the competition between banks would limit the credit expansion of the banking system effectively. Other Austrians such as Rothbard (1991) and Huerta de Soto (2006) have gone further and advocate a 100 percent re - rerve banking system ruling out credit expansion altogether.3 In this article it is argued that a 100 percent reserve system can still bring about artificial booms by maturity mismatching if there is a central bank or government support and guarantees for the ban king system. Even if we accept the case for a 100 percent re - serve requirement, we see that the maturity mismatching of liabilities and assets (borrowing short and lending long) is itself perilous–and in the same sense that fractional reserves are perilous.

Ludwig von Mises as currency school free banker

The centennial of the publication of the first German edition of Ludwig von Mises’s The Theory of Money and Credit offers an excellent opportunity to reconsider a long-standing controversy within modern Austrian economics. This revolves around the question of whether Ludwig von Mises favored 100-percent gold reserve banking imposed by law or free banking based on gold as the ideal monetary system. In this paper, I suggest that this debate is fundamentally misfocused and conflates means and ends. I argue that Mises advocated free banking as the most suitable means for achieving the goal of suppressing the issue of fiduciary media, in the form of bank notes and demand deposits. This goal was first enunciated by the nineteenth-century British currency school and embodied in its famous «currency principle.» My thesis is that Mises was a proponent of both the currency principle and free banking and that he viewed the latter as the indispensable means to regulate the behavior of the money supply according to the former. In defending this thesis, I seek to reframe the debate on Mises’s monetary views in a more meaningful way and to contribute to its resolution. Key words: Mises, Currency School, Free Banking, Currency Principle, Monetary Equilibrium. JEL Classification: B31, B53, E42, E52. Resumen: El centenario de la publicación de la primera edición alemana de The Theory of Money and Credit de Ludwig von Mises, ofrece una exce-lente oportunidad para reconsiderar una controversia duradera dentro de la economía austriaca moderna. Ésta gira en torno a la cuestión de si Ludwig von Mises apoyó una banca de reserva en oro del 100% impues-ta por ley o una banca libre basada en el oro como su sistema monetario ideal. En este trabajo, sugiero que este debate está fundamentalmente mal enfocado y confunde medios y fines. Sostengo que Mises defendió un siste-ma de banca libre como el medio más adecuado para lograr el objetivo de suprimir la emisión de dinero fiduciario en forma de billetes bancarios y depósitos a la vista. Este objetivo fue inicialmente enunciado por la Escue-la Monetaria del siglo XIX e incorporado en su famoso «principio mone-tario.» Mi tesis es que Mises fue proponente del principio monetario y de la banca libre, y que observó a esta última como el medio indispensable para regular el comportamiento de la oferta monetaria conforme al prime-ro. En la defensa de esta tesis, trato de replantear el debate sobre las ideas monetarias de Mises de una forma más relevante y contribuir de este modo a su resolución. Palabras clave: Mises, Escuela Monetaria, Banca Libre, Principio Monetario, Equilibrio Monetario. Clasificación JEL: B31, B53, E42, E52.

Idiosyncrasies of Money: 21st Century Evolution of Money

This paper examines the question of what kind of money will govern the 21st century by examining the developments which characterise this landscape. On the basis of a review of the available literature and evidence, it is clear that certain technological innovations, such as the movement towards electronic money, will undoubtedly change how we operate. However, the conclusion in this paper is less sanguine regarding the prospects of a global currency, regional monetary unions, or states’ exit from or central banks’ control of money. This paper also sees poor prospects for cryptocurrencies at the moment, given their focus on the decentralisation and politicisation of money, because money requires a backstopping force, making it inherently political. Finally, this paper considers how regulators may seek to ensure that money in its digital form is not taken advantage of and applied in malevolent activities. The study used correlation to establish the level of association among variables. A multiple regression analysis was used to draw an econometric model explaining the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. The following variables were used as independent variables: monetary aggregate (M1), harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP), Euro Interbank Offered Rate (EURIBOR), US dollar/euro, and the USD value of Bitcoin. Multiple regression predicted that when inflation rises, the money supply will decrease. M1 includes cash in circulation, current deposits, and other than demand deposits. The study concludes that price increases encourage people to keep their money in longer-term deposits, including in cryptocurrency. Additionally, an increase in EURIBOR and US dollar/euro reduces the supply of money. Otherwise, an increase in the price of bitcoin in the economy would increase the overall money supply.