Utilization of the Northern Gulf Operational Forecast System to Predict Trajectories of Surface Oil from a Persistent Source Offshore of the Mississippi River Delta

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 (1) ◽  
pp. 531-543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy MacFadyen ◽  
Eugene Wei ◽  
Christopher Warren ◽  
Charlie Henry ◽  
Glen Watabayashi
Keyword(s):  
Mississippi River ◽  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
Unstructured Grid ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Grid Resolution ◽  
Mississippi River Delta ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Structured Grid ◽  
Trajectory Models ◽  
One Year

ABSTRACT In this paper, we demonstrate the use of a new operational, unstructured-grid hydrodynamic model within the oil spill trajectory model GNOME (the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment) to examine the transport of surface oil from a known source approximately 10 miles offshore of the Mississippi River Delta. At this location, a cluster of wells and/or contaminated sediments have been persistently leaking small amounts of oil since they were damaged in 2004. Slicks associated with this source are frequently detected in satellite imagery analysis, which indicates they are often oriented in the along isobath direction with typical dimensions of 0.5–2 km by 10–30 km varying with wind conditions. The Northern Gulf of Mexico Operation Forecast System (NGOFS) has recently been deployed by NOAA and includes this region. The underlying hydrodynamic model is an unstructured grid finite-volume model which allows variable grid resolution ranging from 10 km offshore to ~600 m near the coastline. Unstructured grid models are ideally suited for coastal areas as they allow flexible resolution to resolve complex bathymetry and coastlines. However, large model domains combined with high grid resolution can provide a challenge for operational trajectory models as sub-setting the model grid is not as straightforward as in the structured grid case. The utility of any hydrodynamic model for emergency response depends not only on its accuracy, but on the trajectory modeler's ability to access and use the information in a timely manner. As part of this study, we have developed tools to allow the NGOFS results (in addition to other unstructured grid models) to be readily available to GNOME users. Using output from the NGOFS in GNOME, a one year modeled simulation was run in which surface particles were released continuously from the location of the damaged wells. Predicted trajectories of modeled particles less than ~24-hours in age compare qualitatively well with the satellite observations.

Carbon storage in the Mississippi River delta enhanced by environmental engineering

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 846-851 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael R. Shields ◽  
Thomas S. Bianchi ◽  
David Mohrig ◽  
Jack A. Hutchings ◽  
William F. Kenney ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Mississippi River ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Environmental Engineering ◽  
Mississippi River Delta

The Effects of Hurricane Camille on the Marshes of the Mississippi River Delta

Ecology ◽  
1973 ◽  
Vol 54 (5) ◽  
pp. 1118-1123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert H. Chabreck ◽  
A. W. Palmisano
Keyword(s):  
Mississippi River ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Mississippi River Delta

The Giving Delta- A “Systems Approach” To a Consolidated and Sustainable Lower Mississippi River Delta

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Hird ◽  
Jeff Shelden ◽  
Tim Denton ◽  
Robert Twilley ◽  
Ioannis Georgiou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mississippi River ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Mississippi River Delta ◽  
Lower Mississippi River

Historical trace element distribution in sediments from the Mississippi River delta

2006 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 1094-1107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter W. Swarzenski ◽  
Mark Baskaran ◽  
Robert J. Rosenbauer ◽  
William H. Orem
Keyword(s):  
Trace Element ◽  
Mississippi River ◽  
Element Distribution ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Trace Element Distribution ◽  
Mississippi River Delta

scholarly journals Scale effects on land loss modeling in the Mississippi River Delta

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Nina S.-N. Lam ◽  
Heng Cai ◽  
Lei Zou ◽  
Kam-biu Liu
Keyword(s):  
Mississippi River ◽  
Neighborhood Effects ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Scale Effects ◽  
System Modeling ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Neighborhood Size ◽  
Mississippi River Delta ◽  
Land Loss ◽  
Loss Modeling

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> In complex natural-human system modeling, often times a first step is to examine the relationships between a dependent variable and a number of independent variables at their locations. The neighborhood effect, also known as a scale effect, has seldom been considered in the analysis. Previous research has shown that scale effects affect the reliability of analysis results, and rigorous scientific studies should take an extra step to examine the scale effects for more accurate analysis and modeling. However, detecting the neighborhood effects of various variables and then incorporating them into a holistic modeling system posts a serious challenge because of the fundamental difference in properties between variables from the human component (e.g., census data) and variables from the natural component (e.g., landscape properties). Moreover, uncertainties involved in data, data scale, algorithms, and scale of analysis make the findings and the interpretations of the findings unreliable. A major issue of modeling neighborhood effects is the determination of appropriate neighborhood size, also known as the spatial context scale or the operational scale. It has been shown in the literature that neighborhood effects vary with the neighborhood size used to compute the effects. Thus, research on how to determine the neighborhood size that best captures the scale of operation of a phenomenon is very much needed so that we can have more confidence in the modeling results.</p><p>This study examines the use of variogram in detecting the appropriate neighborhood size of the variables involved in land loss modeling in the Mississippi River Delta. The goal is to find out the best combination of variables and their neighborhood sizes that best explain the variation of land loss patterns in the Deltaic region. The Mississippi River Delta has been suffering substantial land loss during the past several decades. Land loss has been a subject of intense research by many researchers from multiple disciplines, aiming at mitigating the land loss process and its potential damages. However, a majority of land loss projections were derived solely from the natural processes, such as sea level rise, regional subsidence, and reduced sediment flows. Very few studies have incorporated human-induced factors such as land fragmentation, urbanization, energy industrialization, and marine transportation. Even fewer have studied the scale effects. A study that captures and quantifies both natural and human factors as well as their neighborhood effects would help uncover the complex mechanism of land loss and provide a more accurate spatiotemporal projection of land loss patterns and probability.</p><p>The analysis procedures are as follows. (1) First, the study area is rasterized into 1-km by 1-km grids. (2) A set of natural and human variables related to land loss in the deltaic region are collected. (3) Variogram analysis of each variable is conducted to identify the spatial neighborhood size of each variable, and a neighborhood variable for each independent variable is created. (4) Elastic Net regression analysis is applied to test and select the significant variables that affect land loss. Regression results between the model with and the model without neighborhood variables are compared. Through this study, we should be able to derive a more accurate land loss model for detailed analysis and future projections.</p>

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