An attempt has been made to issue semi-quantitative precipitation forecasts for river Pun Pun by synoptic analogue method. Based upon twelve years data (1982-93) the study reveals that it is possible to issue semi-quantitative precipitation forecasts with confidence. The severe floods in the river Pun Pun pose problems to Patna town due to blocking effect of Ganga.
The paper formulates a synoptic analogue model for issuing Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for Sabarmati basin based on 10 years data (2000-2009) during southwest monsoon period. The model was verified with the actual Average Areal Precipitation (AAP) for the corresponding synoptic situations during 2010.The performance of the model were observed Percentage Correct (PC) up to 71%. The cases out by one or two stage were due to variation in the intensity of the system especially upper air circulation (S3) over the basin. The synoptic analogue model was able to generate accurate QPF 24 hrs in advance to facilitate flood forecasters of Central Water Commission.
An attempt has been made to prepare a model for issuing semi quantitative precipitation forecast for river Sabarmati by synoptic analogue method. The model is based on 10 years (1986- 95) of data. The QPF issued by the model is verified with the WAR of years 1995 and 1996. The performance of model was good. This model can be used confidently for issue of QPF for Sabarmati basin.
SEMI-QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR RAPTI CATCHMENT BY SYNOPTIC ANALOGUE METHOD