Using Bayesian Kriging for spatial smoothing of trends in non-normal yield densities

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to estimate crop yield densities considering time trends in the first three moments and spatially varying coefficients.Design/methodology/approachYield density parameters are assumed to be spatially correlated, through a Gaussian spatial process. This study spatially smooth multiple parameters using Bayesian Kriging.FindingsAssuming that county yields follow skew normal distributions, the location parameter increased faster in the eastern and northwestern counties of Iowa, while the scale increased faster in southern counties and the shape parameter increased more (implying less left skewness) in southwestern counties. Over time, the mean has increased sharply, while the variance and left skewness increased modestly.Originality/valueBayesian Kriging can smooth time-varying yield distributions, handle unbalanced panel data and provide estimates when data are missing. Most past models used a two-stage estimation procedure, while our procedure estimates parameters jointly.