Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 729-740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaap C. J. Kwadijk ◽  
Marjolijn Haasnoot ◽  
Jan P. M. Mulder ◽  
Marco M. C. Hoogvliet ◽  
Ad B. M. Jeuken ◽  
...  
2008 ◽  
Vol 242 ◽  
pp. 367-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. VanKoningsveld ◽  
J. P. M. Mulder ◽  
M. J. F. Stive ◽  
L. VanDerValk ◽  
A. W. VanDerWeck

2012 ◽  
Vol 278 ◽  
pp. 8-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abiy S. Kebede ◽  
Robert J. Nicholls ◽  
Susan Hanson ◽  
Mustafa Mokrech

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joost Delsman ◽  
Gualbert Oude Essink ◽  
Tobias Mulder ◽  
Sebastian Huizer

<p>The coastal zone of the Netherlands is the densely populated economic heartland of the Netherlands. This low-lying area is predominantly located below current mean sea level. Groundwater in large parts of the Dutch coastal zone is saline, having infiltrated during Holocene transgressions. This saline groundwater is now slowly moving upward, driven by artificially lowered drainage levels and resulting land subsidence. Coastal groundwater in the Netherlands is vulnerable to climate change and rising sea levels, as groundwater levels rise, fresh groundwater reserves decrease, and surface water is salinized by exfiltrating saline groundwater.</p><p>We developed a high-resolution nationwide 3D fresh-salt groundwater flow and transport model to assess effects of climate change and sea level rise on groundwater salinization in the Netherlands. The fully scripted modelling workflow includes a 3D multiple indicator kriging interpolation of all available salinity measurements, that accounted for uncertainty in both measurements and interpolation. The developed model used a parallellized version of the SEAWAT model code to allow otherwise time-consuming calculations. It links to the existing national hydrological modelling framework to allow calculation of climate change effects on surface water supply and demand and agricultural damage. We used the resulting modelling framework to calculate groundwater effects of different climate change and sea level rise scenarios up to 2100.</p><p>Results show significant effects of climate change and especially sea level rise on coastal groundwater. Significant head increase (> 5% of SLR) is experienced in shallow aquifers between 2 to 10 km inland, dependent on the varying hydrogeological settings along the Dutch coast. In deeper aquifers, head increase generally propagates further, to up to 15 km inland. Through the combined effects of head increase and the inward movement of saline groundwater, salt loads to surface water increase over a significantly larger zone, extending to 25 km inward. Results signify the importance of including the long-term displacement of brackish and saline groundwater when assessing coastal groundwater effects of climate change and sea level rise.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 7503
Author(s):  
Alexander Boest-Petersen ◽  
Piotr Michalak ◽  
Jamal Jokar Arsanjani

Anthropogenically-induced climate change is expected to be the contributing cause of sea level rise and severe storm events in the immediate future. While Danish authorities have downscaled the future oscillation of sea level rise across Danish coast lines in order to empower the coastal municipalities, there is a need to project the local cascading effects on different sectors. Using geospatial analysis and climate change projection data, we developed a proposed workflow to analyze the impacts of sea level rise in the coastal municipalities of Guldborgsund, located in Southeastern Denmark as a case study. With current estimates of sea level rise and storm surge events, the island of Falster can expect to have up to 19% of its landmass inundated, with approximately 39% of the population experiencing sea level rise directly. Developing an analytical workflow can allow stakeholders to understand the extent of expected sea level rise and consider alternative methods of prevention at the national and local levels. The proposed approach along with the choice of data and open source tools can empower other communities at risk of sea level rise to plan their adaptation.


The Holocene ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 095968362110482
Author(s):  
Kelvin W Ramsey ◽  
Jaime L. Tomlinson ◽  
C. Robin Mattheus

Radiocarbon dates from 176 sites along the Delmarva Peninsula record the timing of deposition and sea-level rise, and non-marine wetland deposition. The dates provide confirmation of the boundaries of the Holocene subepochs (e.g. “early-middle-late” of Walker et al.) in the mid-Atlantic of eastern North America. These data record initial sea-level rise in the early Holocene, followed by a high rate of rise at the transition to the middle Holocene at 8.2 ka, and a leveling off and decrease in the late-Holocene. The dates, coupled to local and regional climate (pollen) records and fluvial activity, allow regional subdivision of the Holocene into six depositional and climate phases. Phase A (>10 ka) is the end of periglacial activity and transition of cold/cool climate to a warmer early Holocene. Phase B (10.2–8.2 ka) records rise of sea level in the region, a transition to Pinus-dominated forest, and decreased non-marine deposition on the uplands. Phase C (8.2–5.6 ka) shows rapid rates of sea-level rise, expansion of estuaries, and a decrease in non-marine deposition with cool and dry climate. Phase D (5.6–4.2 ka) is a time of high rates of sea-level rise, expanding estuaries, and dry and cool climate; the Atlantic shoreline transgressed rapidly and there was little to no deposition on the uplands. Phase E (4.2–1.1 ka) is a time of lowering sea-level rise rates, Atlantic shorelines nearing their present position, and marine shoal deposition; widespread non-marine deposition resumed with a wetter and warmer climate. Phase F (1.1 ka-present) incorporates the Medieval Climate Anomaly and European settlement on the Delmarva Peninsula. Chronology of depositional phases and coastal changes related to sea-level rise is useful for archeological studies of human occupation in relation to climate change in eastern North America, and provides an important dataset for future regional and global sea-level reconstructions.


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