Causal Discovery of Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Model with Small Samples

Author(s):  
Feng Xie ◽  
Ruichu Cai ◽  
Yan Zeng ◽  
Zhifeng Hao
Author(s):  
Todd Prono

AbstractStrong consistency and (weak) distributional convergence to highly non-Gaussian limits are established for closed-form, two stage least squares (TSLS) estimators of linear and threshold ARCH (p) models, with special attention paid to the ARCH (1) and threshold ARCH (1) cases. Conditions supporting these results include (relatively) mild moment existence criteria that enjoy empirical support. These conditions are not shared by competing estimators like OLS. Identification of the TSLS estimators depends on asymmetry, either in the model’s rescaled errors or in the conditional variance function. Monte Carlo studies reveal TSLS estimation can sizably outperform quasi maximum likelihood (QML) in small samples and even best recently proposed two-step estimators specifically designed to enhance the efficiency of QML.


2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (06) ◽  
pp. 10153-10161
Author(s):  
Biwei Huang ◽  
Kun Zhang ◽  
Mingming Gong ◽  
Clark Glymour

A number of approaches to causal discovery assume that there are no hidden confounders and are designed to learn a fixed causal model from a single data set. Over the last decade, with closer cooperation across laboratories, we are able to accumulate more variables and data for analysis, while each lab may only measure a subset of them, due to technical constraints or to save time and cost. This raises a question of how to handle causal discovery from multiple data sets with non-identical variable sets, and at the same time, it would be interesting to see how more recorded variables can help to mitigate the confounding problem. In this paper, we propose a principled method to uniquely identify causal relationships over the integrated set of variables from multiple data sets, in linear, non-Gaussian cases. The proposed method also allows distribution shifts across data sets. Theoretically, we show that the causal structure over the integrated set of variables is identifiable under testable conditions. Furthermore, we present two types of approaches to parameter estimation: one is based on maximum likelihood, and the other is likelihood free and leverages generative adversarial nets to improve scalability of the estimation procedure. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of our methods.


2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 10867-10872 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhe Gao ◽  
Zitian Wang ◽  
Lili Wang ◽  
Shaohua Tan

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (02) ◽  
pp. 189-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Janzing ◽  
Bastian Steudel

A recent method for causal discovery is in many cases able to infer whether X causes Y or Y causes X for just two observed variables X and Y. It is based on the observation that there exist (non-Gaussian) joint distributions P(X,Y) for which Y may be written as a function of X up to an additive noise term that is independent of X and no such model exists from Y to X. Whenever this is the case, one prefers the causal model X → Y. Here we justify this method by showing that the causal hypothesis Y → X is unlikely because it requires a specific tuning between P(Y) and P(X|Y) to generate a distribution that admits an additive noise model from X to Y. To quantify the amount of tuning, needed we derive lower bounds on the algorithmic information shared by P(Y) and P(X|Y). This way, our justification is consistent with recent approaches for using algorithmic information theory for causal reasoning. We extend this principle to the case where P(X,Y)almost admits an additive noise model. Our results suggest that the above conclusion is more reliable if the complexity of P(Y) is high.


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