Comparing the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasting Systems in Managing Cropping Systems

2000 ◽  
pp. 183-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graeme Hammer ◽  
Peter Carberry ◽  
Roger Stone
Keyword(s):  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasting

scholarly journals REVIEW OF SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTING FOR AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
JAMES W. HANSEN ◽  
SIMON J. MASON ◽  
LIQIANG SUN ◽  
ARAME TALL
Keyword(s):  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Sub Saharan

SUMMARYWe review the use and value of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with a view to understanding and exploiting opportunities to realize more of its potential benefits. Interaction between the atmosphere and underlying oceans provides the basis for probabilistic forecasts of climate conditions at a seasonal lead-time, including during cropping seasons in parts of SSA. Regional climate outlook forums (RCOF) and national meteorological services (NMS) have been at the forefront of efforts to provide forecast information for agriculture. A survey showed that African NMS often go well beyond the RCOF process to improve seasonal forecast information and disseminate it to the agricultural sector. Evidence from a combination of understanding of how climatic uncertainty impacts agriculture, model-based ex-ante analyses, subjective expressions of demand or value, and the few well-documented evaluations of actual use and resulting benefit suggests that seasonal forecasts may have considerable potential to improve agricultural management and rural livelihoods. However, constraints related to legitimacy, salience, access, understanding, capacity to respond and data scarcity have so far limited the widespread use and benefit from seasonal prediction among smallholder farmers. Those constraints that reflect inadequate information products, policies or institutional process can potentially be overcome. Additional opportunities to benefit rural communities come from expanding the use of seasonal forecast information for coordinating input and credit supply, food crisis management, trade and agricultural insurance. The surge of activity surrounding seasonal forecasting in SSA following the 1997/98 El Niño has waned in recent years, but emerging initiatives, such as the Global Framework for Climate Services and ClimDev-Africa, are poised to reinvigorate support for seasonal forecast information services for agriculture. We conclude with a discussion of institutional and policy changes that we believe will greatly enhance the benefits of seasonal forecasting to agriculture in SSA.

scholarly journals Seasonal climate forecasting

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Troccoli
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasting

The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climatic variability

1996 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 717 ◽  
Author(s):  
GL Hammer ◽  
DP Holzworth ◽  
R Stone
Keyword(s):  
Crop Management ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Phase System ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
Forecast Quality

In Australia, and particularly in the northern part of the grain belt, wheat is grown in an extremely variable climate. The wheat crop manager in this region is faced with complex decisions on choice of planting time, varietal development pattern, and fertiliser strategy. A skilful seasonal forecast would provide an opportunity for the manager to tailor crop management decisions more appropriately to the season. Recent developments in climate research have led to the development of a number of seasonal climate forecasting systems. The objectives of this study were to determine the value of the capability in seasonal forecasting to wheat crop management, to compare the value of the existing forecast methodologies, and to consider the potential value of improved forecast quality. We examined decisions on nitrogen (N) fertiliser and cultivar maturity using simulation analyses of specific production scenarios at a representative location (Goondiwindi) using long-term daily weather data (1894-1989). The average profit and risk of making a loss were calculated for the possible range of fixed (i.e. the same every year) and tactical (i.e. varying depending on seasonal forecast) strategies. Significant increase in profit (up to 20%) and/or reduction in risk (up to 35%) were associated with tactical adjustment of crop management of N fertiliser or cultivar maturity. The forecasting system giving greatest value was the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phase system of Stone and Auliciems (1992), which classifies seasons into 5 phases depending on the value and rate of change in the SOI. The significant skill in this system for forecasting both seasonal rainfall and frost timing generated the value found in tactical management of N fertiliser and cultivar maturity. Possible impediments to adoption of tactical management, associated with uncertainties in forecasting individual years, are discussed. The scope for improving forecast quality and the means to achieve it are considered by comparing the value of tactical management based on SO1 phases with the outcome given perfect prior knowledge of the season. While the analyses presented considered only one decision at a time, used specific scenarios, and made a number of simplifying assumptions, they have demonstrated that the current skill in seasonal forecasting is sufficient to justify use in tactical management of crops. More comprehensive studies to examine sensitivities to location, antecedent conditions, and price structure, and to assumptions made in this analysis, are now warranted. We have examined decisions related only to management of wheat. It would be appropriate to pursue similar analyses in relation to management decisions for other crops, cropping sequences, and the whole farm enterprise mix.

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