scholarly journals REVIEW OF SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTING FOR AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
JAMES W. HANSEN ◽  
SIMON J. MASON ◽  
LIQIANG SUN ◽  
ARAME TALL
Keyword(s):  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Sub Saharan

SUMMARYWe review the use and value of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with a view to understanding and exploiting opportunities to realize more of its potential benefits. Interaction between the atmosphere and underlying oceans provides the basis for probabilistic forecasts of climate conditions at a seasonal lead-time, including during cropping seasons in parts of SSA. Regional climate outlook forums (RCOF) and national meteorological services (NMS) have been at the forefront of efforts to provide forecast information for agriculture. A survey showed that African NMS often go well beyond the RCOF process to improve seasonal forecast information and disseminate it to the agricultural sector. Evidence from a combination of understanding of how climatic uncertainty impacts agriculture, model-based ex-ante analyses, subjective expressions of demand or value, and the few well-documented evaluations of actual use and resulting benefit suggests that seasonal forecasts may have considerable potential to improve agricultural management and rural livelihoods. However, constraints related to legitimacy, salience, access, understanding, capacity to respond and data scarcity have so far limited the widespread use and benefit from seasonal prediction among smallholder farmers. Those constraints that reflect inadequate information products, policies or institutional process can potentially be overcome. Additional opportunities to benefit rural communities come from expanding the use of seasonal forecast information for coordinating input and credit supply, food crisis management, trade and agricultural insurance. The surge of activity surrounding seasonal forecasting in SSA following the 1997/98 El Niño has waned in recent years, but emerging initiatives, such as the Global Framework for Climate Services and ClimDev-Africa, are poised to reinvigorate support for seasonal forecast information services for agriculture. We conclude with a discussion of institutional and policy changes that we believe will greatly enhance the benefits of seasonal forecasting to agriculture in SSA.

scholarly journals Development of seasonal climate outlooks for agriculture in Finland

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 269-277
Author(s):  
Andrea Vajda ◽  
Otto Hyvärinen
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Crop Choice ◽  
Temperature Forecast ◽  
Dry Conditions

Abstract. Seasonal climate forecast products offer useful information for farmers supporting them in planning and making decisions in their management practices, such as crop choice, planting and harvesting time, and water management. Driven by the need of stakeholders for tailored seasonal forecast products, our goal was to assess the applicability of seasonal forecast outputs in agriculture and to develop and pilot with stakeholders a set of seasonal climate outlooks for this sector in Finland. Finnish end users were involved in both the design and testing of the outlooks during the first pilot season of 2019. The seasonal climate outlooks were developed using the SEAS5 seasonal forecast system provided by ECMWF. To improve the prediction skill of the seasonal forecast data, several bias adjustment approaches were evaluated. The tested methods increased the quality of temperature forecast, but no suitable approach was found for eliminating the biases from precipitation data. Besides the widely applied indices, such as mean temperature, growing degree days, cold spell duration, total precipitation and dry conditions, new sector-oriented indices (such as progress of growing season) have been implemented and issued for various lead times (up to 3 months). The first result of forecast evaluation, the development of seasonal forecast indices and the first pilot season of May–October 2019 are presented. We found that the temperature-based outlooks performed well, with better performance skills for short lead times, providing useful information for the farmers in activity management. Precipitation indices had poor skills for each forecasted month, and further research is needed for improving the quality of forecast for Finland. The farmers who have tested the seasonal climate outlooks considered those beneficial and valuable, helping them in planning their activities. Following the first pilot season, further research and implementation work took place to improve our understanding of the skill of seasonal forecasts and increase the quality of tailored seasonal climate services.

The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climatic variability

1996 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 717 ◽  
Author(s):  
GL Hammer ◽  
DP Holzworth ◽  
R Stone
Keyword(s):  
Crop Management ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Phase System ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
Forecast Quality

In Australia, and particularly in the northern part of the grain belt, wheat is grown in an extremely variable climate. The wheat crop manager in this region is faced with complex decisions on choice of planting time, varietal development pattern, and fertiliser strategy. A skilful seasonal forecast would provide an opportunity for the manager to tailor crop management decisions more appropriately to the season. Recent developments in climate research have led to the development of a number of seasonal climate forecasting systems. The objectives of this study were to determine the value of the capability in seasonal forecasting to wheat crop management, to compare the value of the existing forecast methodologies, and to consider the potential value of improved forecast quality. We examined decisions on nitrogen (N) fertiliser and cultivar maturity using simulation analyses of specific production scenarios at a representative location (Goondiwindi) using long-term daily weather data (1894-1989). The average profit and risk of making a loss were calculated for the possible range of fixed (i.e. the same every year) and tactical (i.e. varying depending on seasonal forecast) strategies. Significant increase in profit (up to 20%) and/or reduction in risk (up to 35%) were associated with tactical adjustment of crop management of N fertiliser or cultivar maturity. The forecasting system giving greatest value was the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phase system of Stone and Auliciems (1992), which classifies seasons into 5 phases depending on the value and rate of change in the SOI. The significant skill in this system for forecasting both seasonal rainfall and frost timing generated the value found in tactical management of N fertiliser and cultivar maturity. Possible impediments to adoption of tactical management, associated with uncertainties in forecasting individual years, are discussed. The scope for improving forecast quality and the means to achieve it are considered by comparing the value of tactical management based on SO1 phases with the outcome given perfect prior knowledge of the season. While the analyses presented considered only one decision at a time, used specific scenarios, and made a number of simplifying assumptions, they have demonstrated that the current skill in seasonal forecasting is sufficient to justify use in tactical management of crops. More comprehensive studies to examine sensitivities to location, antecedent conditions, and price structure, and to assumptions made in this analysis, are now warranted. We have examined decisions related only to management of wheat. It would be appropriate to pursue similar analyses in relation to management decisions for other crops, cropping sequences, and the whole farm enterprise mix.

scholarly journals Precision Agriculture for Resource Use Efficiency in Smallholder Farming Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1158
Author(s):  
Cecilia M. Onyango ◽  
Justine M. Nyaga ◽  
Johanna Wetterlind ◽  
Mats Söderström ◽  
Kristin Piikki
Keyword(s):  
Resource Use ◽  
Precision Agriculture ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
English Language ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Smallholder Farming ◽  
Sub Saharan

Opportunities exist for adoption of precision agriculture technologies in all parts of the world. The form of precision agriculture may vary from region to region depending on technologies available, knowledge levels and mindsets. The current review examined research articles in the English language on precision agriculture practices for increased productivity among smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. A total of 7715 articles were retrieved and after screening 128 were reviewed. The results indicate that a number of precision agriculture technologies have been tested under SSA conditions and show promising results. The most promising precision agriculture technologies identified were the use of soil and plant sensors for nutrient and water management, as well as use of satellite imagery, GIS and crop-soil simulation models for site-specific management. These technologies have been shown to be crucial in attainment of appropriate management strategies in terms of efficiency and effectiveness of resource use in SSA. These technologies are important in supporting sustainable agricultural development. Most of these technologies are, however, at the experimental stage, with only South Africa having applied them mainly in large-scale commercial farms. It is concluded that increased precision in input and management practices among SSA smallholder farmers can significantly improve productivity even without extra use of inputs.

scholarly journals Factors That Matter for Financial Inclusion: Evidence from Sub-Sharan Africa - The Zimbabwe Case

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
David Mhlanga
Keyword(s):  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Smallholder Farming ◽  
Hand Off ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Government

The study intended to investigate the factors that are important in influencing the financial inclusion of smallholder farming households in Sub-Saharan Africa with a specific focus on Zimbabwe. Motivated by the fact that there is an increase in the evidence of the importance of financial inclusion in fighting poverty and the fact that by merely having a bank account, financial inclusion cannot be guaranteed, the study went further to interrogate factors that influence smallholder farmers to have a transaction account, to borrow and to have insurance. Since the dependent variable of financial inclusion had more than two categories, with three unordered categories, transaction account, savings/credit account, and insurance, the multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the determinants of financial inclusion from these three categories of the dependent variable. The multinomial logit model results, with insurance as the reference category, indicated that the size of the household, transaction costs, gender and agricultural extension service were the factors influencing the demand for a household to open a transaction account. On the other hand, off-farm income and age of the household were the only two factors significantly influencing households to borrow. Therefore, it is imperative for, the government of Zimbabwe to come up with more policies that encourage farmers to participate in the formal financial market as financial inclusion can help to fight poverty and the general developments of societies.   Received: 28 April 2021 / Accepted: 31 August 2021 / Published: 5 November 2021

scholarly journals A Multi-Phase Assessment of the Effects of COVID-19 on Food Systems and Rural Livelihoods in Zimbabwe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vine Mutyasira
Keyword(s):  
Food Systems ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Rapid Assessment ◽  
Policy Research ◽  
Rural Livelihoods ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Response Measures ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Multi Phase

The COVID-19 pandemic has continued to affect agri-food systems around the world and lay bare its fragility, worsening the welfare of millions of smallholder farmers whose livelihoods are anchored on agricultural activities. For the vast majority of sub-Saharan Africa, COVID-19 has coincided with a number of other macroeconomic shocks, which have also exacerbated the impacts of the pandemic on food security, nutrition and general livelihoods, as well curtailed policy responses and mitigation strategies. In Zimbabwe, the COVID-19 pandemic struck at a time the country was experiencing a worsening economic and humanitarian situation. This study focused more on community and household dynamics and response measures to cope with the pandemic. This paper presents a summary of findings emerging from a series of rapid assessment studies undertaken by the Agricultural Policy Research in Africa (APRA) Programme in Mvurwi and Concession areas of Mazowe District in Zimbabwe to examine how COVID-19 is affecting food systems and rural livelihoods in our research communities.

scholarly journals IoT-based Irrigation Management for Smallholder Farmers in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 177 ◽  
pp. 86-93
Author(s):  
Ethiopia Nigussie ◽  
Thomas Olwal ◽  
George Musumba ◽  
Tesfa Tegegne ◽  
Atli Lemma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Irrigation Management ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Sub Saharan

scholarly journals Performance of Five Postharvest Storage Methods for Maize Preservation in Northern Benin

Insects ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 541 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dieudonne Baributsa ◽  
Ousmane Nouhou Bakoye ◽  
Baoua Ibrahim ◽  
Larry L. Murdock
Keyword(s):  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Stored Grain ◽  
Hermetic Storage ◽  
Storage Losses ◽  
Weight Losses ◽  
No Weight Loss ◽  
Storage Methods ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Storage Technologies

Several postharvest technologies are currently being commercialized to help smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa reduce grain storage losses. We carried out a study in Northern Benin to compare the effectiveness of five technologies being sold to protect stored grain. Maize that had been naturally infested by insects was stored in four hermetic storage technologies (SuperGrainbag™, AgroZ® bag, EVAL™, and Purdue Improved Crop Storage-PICS™ bags), an insecticide impregnated bag (ZeroFly®), and a regular polypropylene (PP) woven bag as control. Oxygen levels in hermetic bags fluctuated between 0.5 ± 0.0 (v/v) and 1.0 ± 0.3 (v/v) percent during the seven months of storage. No weight loss or insect damage was observed in grain stored in any of the hermetic storage bags after seven months. However, grain stored in ZeroFly® and PP woven bags had weight losses of 6.3% and 10.3%, respectively. These results will help farmers and development agencies when making decisions to use and/or promote storage technologies to reduce postharvest grain losses.

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