Relationships between regional indian summer monsoon rainfall and eurasian snow cover

Abstract This observationally based study demonstrates the importance of the delayed hydrological response of snow cover and snowmelt over the Eurasian region and Tibet for variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall during the first two months after onset. Using snow cover fraction and snow water equivalent data during 1967–2003, it is demonstrated that, although the snow-albedo effect is prevalent over western Eurasia, the delayed hydrological effect is strong and persistent over the eastern part. Long soil moisture memory and strong sensitivity of surface fluxes to soil moisture variations over eastern Asia and Tibet provide a mechanism for soil moisture anomalies generated by anomalies in winter and spring snowfall to affect rainfall during the initial months in summer. Dry soil moisture anomalies over the eastern Eurasian region associated with anomalous heating at the surface and midtroposphere help in anchoring of an anomalous upper-tropospheric “blocking” ridge around 100°E and its persistence. This not only leads to prolonged weakening of the subtropical westerly jet but also shifts its position southward of 30°N, followed by penetration of anomalous troughs in the westerlies into the Indian region. Simultaneously, intrusion of cold and dry air from the midlatitudes can reduce the convective instability and hence rainfall over India after the onset. Such a southward shift of the jet can also significantly weaken the vertical easterly wind shear over the Indian region in summer and lead to decrease in rainfall. This delayed hydrological effect also has the potential to modulate the snow–atmosphere coupling strength for temperature and precipitation in operational forecast models through soil moisture–evaporation–precipitation feedbacks.

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The weakening relationship between Eurasian spring snow cover and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Science Advances ◽

10.1126/sciadv.aau8932 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. eaau8932 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Taotao Zhang ◽

Tao Wang ◽

Gerhard Krinner ◽

Xiaoyi Wang ◽

Thomas Gasser ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Snow Cover ◽

Summer Monsoon ◽

Indian Summer Monsoon ◽

Monsoon Rainfall ◽

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽

Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽

Tropospheric Temperature ◽

Apparent Loss ◽

Substantial Progress ◽

Relationship Of

Substantial progress has been made in understanding how Eurasian snow cover variabilities affect the Indian summer monsoon, but the snow-monsoon relationship in a warming atmosphere remains controversial. Using long-term observational snow and rainfall data (1967–2015), we identified that the widely recognized inverse relationship of central Eurasian spring snow cover with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has disappeared since 1990. The apparent loss of this negative correlation is mainly due to the central Eurasian spring snow cover no longer regulating the summer mid-tropospheric temperature over the Iranian Plateau and surroundings, and hence the land-ocean thermal contrast after 1990. A reduced lagged snow-hydrological effect, resulting from a warming-induced decline in spring snow cover, constitutes the possible mechanism for the breakdown of the snow-air temperature connection after 1990. Our results suggest that, in a changing climate, Eurasian spring snow cover may not be a faithful predictor of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall.

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