Prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India using the NCEP climate forecast system

2009 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 557-572 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. R. Pattanaik ◽  
Arun Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Ncep Climate Forecast System

Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system

2013 ◽  
Vol 42 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 1925-1947 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S. Chowdary ◽  
H. S. Chaudhari ◽  
C. Gnanaseelan ◽  
Anant Parekh ◽  
A. Suryachandra Rao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Ncep Climate Forecast System

Improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon in latest NCEP climate forecast system free run

2013 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 1628-1641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subodh K. Saha ◽  
Samir Pokhrel ◽  
Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari ◽  
Ashish Dhakate ◽  
Swati Shewale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Ncep Climate Forecast System

Improvements in the representation of the Indian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 2485-2498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo J. Bombardi ◽  
Edwin K. Schneider ◽  
Lawrence Marx ◽  
Subhadeep Halder ◽  
Bohar Singh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Ncep Climate Forecast System

ENSO, IOD and Indian Summer Monsoon in NCEP climate forecast system

2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 2143-2165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samir Pokhrel ◽  
H. S. Chaudhari ◽  
Subodh K. Saha ◽  
Ashish Dhakate ◽  
R. K. Yadav ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Ncep Climate Forecast System

Simulations and Seasonal Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (15) ◽  
pp. 3755-3775 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song Yang ◽  
Zuqiang Zhang ◽  
Vernon E. Kousky ◽  
R. Wayne Higgins ◽  
Soo-Hyun Yoo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ncep Climate Forecast System

Abstract Analysis of the retrospective ensemble predictions (hindcasts) of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) indicates that the model successfully simulates many major features of the Asian summer monsoon including the climatology and interannual variability of major precipitation centers and atmospheric circulation systems. The model captures the onset of the monsoon better than the retreat of the monsoon, and it simulates the seasonal march of monsoon rainfall over Southeast Asia more realistically than that over South Asia. The CFS predicts the major dynamical monsoon indices and monsoon precipitation patterns several months in advance. It also depicts the interactive oceanic–atmospheric processes associated with the precipitation anomalies reasonably well at different time leads. Overall, the skill of monsoon prediction by the CFS mainly comes from the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CFS produces weaker-than-observed large-scale monsoon circulation, due partially to the cold bias over the Asian continent. It tends to overemphasize the relationship between ENSO and the Asian monsoon, as well as the impact of ENSO on the Asian and Indo-Pacific climate. A higher-resolution version of the CFS (T126) captures the climatology and variability of the Asian monsoon more realistically than does the current resolution version (T62). The largest improvement occurs in the simulations of precipitation near the Tibetan Plateau and over the tropical Indian Ocean associated with the zonal dipole mode structure. The analysis suggests that NCEP’s next operational model may perform better in simulating and predicting the monsoon climate over Asia and the Indo-Pacific Oceans.

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