The sensitivity of simulated aerosol climatic impact to domain size using regional model (WRF-Chem v3.6)

Domain size can have significant impact on regional modeling results, but few studies examined the sensitivities of simulated aerosol impact to regional domain size. This study investigates the regional modeling sensitivities of aerosol impact on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to domain size. The simulations with two different domain sizes demonstrate consistently that aerosols induce the cooling of the lower troposphere that leads to the anticyclone circulation anomalies and thus the weakening of EASM moisture transport. The aerosol-induced adjustment of monsoonal circulation results in an alternate increase and decrease pattern of precipitation over China. Domain size has a great influence on the simulated meteorological fields. For example, the simulation with larger domain size produces weaker EASM circulation, which also affects aerosol distributions significantly. This leads to the difference of simulated strength and area extent of aerosol-induced changes of lower-tropospheric temperature and pressure, which further results in different distributions of circulation and precipitation anomalies over China. For example, over southeastern China, aerosols induce the increase (decrease) of precipitation from the smaller-domain (larger-domain) simulation. Different domain sizes consistently simulate an aerosol-induced increase in precipitation around 30∘ N over eastern China. This study highlights the important influence of domain size on regional modeling results of aerosol impact on circulation and precipitation, which may not be limited to East Asia. More generally, this study also implies that proper modeling of meteorological fields with appropriate domain size is one of the keys to simulating robust aerosol climatic impact.

Land-sea Thermal Contrast in Relation With Summer Monsoon Onset Over the Chao Phraya River Basin

An earlier onset of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon (SAM) was observed over the Chao Phraya River basin in Thailand using Thai Meteorological Department (TMD)-derived high-resolution merged rainfall from 1981 to 2016. As the SAM is precipitous, its variability depends on many local and global factors, such as thermal conditions over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Tibetan Plateau (TbT). Despite tremendous studies in the past, the role of thermal heat contrast over SAM is still not fully understood. Using the observation and reanalysis datasets, it was found that the absolute value of total heat over the BoB was higher. However, the interannual variability in total heat is higher over the TbT. Significant changes in surface temperature (±1.5°C), air thickness (±20 meters) and geopotential height found over the TbT were associated with early (late) SAM onset. The results also suggested that the significant changes in air thickness were influenced by the surface temperature difference over the TbT, and the changes in the integrated apparent heat source and integrated apparent moisture sink were up to ± 100 Wm−2, which resulted in stronger (weaker) convective activities over the BoB and mainland of the Indochina Peninsula during early (late) SAM onset. At the intraseasonal timescale, the instance MJO found over the Indian Ocean and Western Hemisphere at 4 to 10 days span during early SAM onset. An opposite scenario is found for a late SAM onset years with MJO location over Western Pacific and Maritime continent.

Global warming and monsoon climate

The response of the Asian summer monsoon to transient increases of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sulfate aerosols in the Earth's atmosphere is examined using the data generated in numerical experiments with available coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (A-O GCMs). A comparison of observed and model-simulated trends in monthly mean near-surface temperature and rainfall over the region provides evidence of skill of the A-O GCMs in simulating the regional climatology. The potential role of the sulfate aerosols in obscuring the GHG- induced warming over the Indian subcontinent is discussed. Even though the simulated total seasonal rainfall over the Indian subcontinent during summer monsoon season is underestimated in most of the A-O GCMs, the year to year variability in simulated monsoon rainfall over the study region is found to be in fair agreement with the observed climatology.

Searching for a fingerprint of global warming in the Asian summer monsoon

This study investigates possible trends in several large scale indices that describe the Asian summer monsoon. Results from recent atmospheric general circulation experiments are used to provide clues as to how the monsoon might be changing due to the effects of global warming. Interestingly, this study has found that the large-scale wind shear monsoon indices have been decreasing at a rate of 0.1-0.3% per year (based on NCEP/CAR reanalysis 1958-98) in quantitative agreement with recent results from doubled CO2 simulations made using several state-of-the-art climate models. Nevertheless, despite the weakening of the monsoon circulation, all-India rainfall shows no clear trend in either the model results or in the observation reanalysis from 1958-98. Multiple regression is used to separate out the "dynamical" contribution from the observed all-India rainfall index, and a clear increasing trend then emerges in the "non-dynamical" residual. A simple dimensionless Multivariate Monsoon Index (MMI) is proposed that could be of use in monitoring global warming changes in the monsoon.

Enhanced tropospheric biennial oscillation of the East Asian summer monsoon since the late-1970s

The tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has major impacts on East Asian climate. Here it is shown that, since the late-1970s, the TBO signal of EASM has strengthened significantly. The EASM TBO in wind anomalies undergoes a transition from a cyclone over the western North Pacific (WNPC) in preceding summer to an anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNPAC) in following summer, with the anomalies strengthening remarkably after the late-1970s. Correspondingly, the biennial component of precipitation anomalies in eastern China show different distributions. Both observational and numerical simulation analyses demonstrate that these changes are caused by the westward shift of El Niño warming and enhanced Indo-Pacific and Atlantic-Pacific coupling. The positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the TBO of EASM shift toward the central Pacific after the late-1970s, which favor the strengthening of the WNPC and cause a weakened EASM. In following summer, both the north Indian Ocean and tropical north Atlantic SST warming are closely coupled with El Niño since the late-1970s, which favor the strengthening of WNPAC and cause an intensified EASM. Together, these changes provide more favorable background state for the transition of circulation anomalies over the western North Pacific, giving rise to enhanced biennial variability in EASM in the late-1970s.

The leading mode and factors for coherent variations among the sub-systems of tropical Asian summer monsoon onset

Previous studies on the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) onset mainly focused on each monsoon sub-system. Mainly based on the monthly mean rainfall and low-level winds in May, this study investigated the dominant onset mode from the perspective of the entire tropical ASM region, which reveals the coherent features among the regional-scale onsets. The results of multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) analysis indicate that the MV-EOF1 presents reduced rainfall and anomalous low-level easterly winds at 850 hPa over the tropical ASM region in May during its positive phase. The corresponding principal component (PC1) is highly correlated with the local monsoon onset dates over Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Indo-China Peninsula, and South China Sea, where the mean monsoon onsets occur in May. The only exception is India subcontinent, where the mean monsoon onsets occur in June. The results indicate that the leading mode captures the synchronized variation of monsoon onset over most of Asian monsoon sub-systems, which exhibits remarkably interannual and interdecadal changes. The factors that modulate the coherent variation of the tropical ASM onset are further examined. The simultaneously delayed ASM onset tends to occur during the easterly phase of the 30- to 80-day oscillation, the decaying phase of El Niño, and the positive phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The 30- to 80-day oscillation serves as a background condition for the synchronized delayed or advanced ASM onset. El Niño-related sea surface temperature anomalies modulate the tropical ASM onset mode by modulating the tropical Walker Circulation and inducing an atmospheric Rossby wave response. The PDO affects the tropical ASM onset mode mainly via the equatorial Rossby wave response and the extratropical Rossby wave train.

Data assimilation by the variational method with results for the Indian region

ABSTRACT. The variational method for data assimilation as implemented in the operational scheme at ECMWF is briefly presented. The performance of the variational scheme (3D-Var) with respect to tropical cyclones and the Asian summer monsoon is investigated and compared to the Optimum Interpolation scheme. It is found that the analysis of near-surface winds has improved significantly particularly in the vicinity of tropical storms and depressions. The better analyses have led to improvements in the short range forecasts (day 1 to day 3) of such systems. The summer monsoon appears slightly stronger in the 3D-Var analyses, giving enhanced forecast precipitation over the Western Ghats and over large parts of northern India. Only in the latter of these two areas does this verify with observations. The forecasts for India of geopotential, wind and temperature have improved significantly at all forecast ranges, as verified against own analyses. These results are based on 28 cases in two separate 2-week periods.