Optimization of voltage and reactive power in substation is important for improve voltage stability and power quality. In order to avoid the frequent actions of on load tap changer, it is come up with a new control strategy for optimization of voltage and reactive power in substation based on probabilistic forecasting. In this paper the objective function is built to maximize the probability of the voltage qualification, with the times of equipments actions as constraint conditions. To establish the probability model of voltage firstly, the load on low-voltage bus and system voltage are forecasted with the method of forecasting error statistics. In this paper the objective function is built to maximize the probability of the voltage qualification, with the times of equipments actions as constraint conditions. The tap operating times are limited by estimating the risk of the loss of the voltage qualification; Otherwise, capacitors could turn on or turn off by turns, so their operating times is not need to limit. This method applies to 35kV distribution system a town of northern China,and the result demonstrates that it is feasible and effective.
Optimizing an objective function under a bivariate probability model
