Abstract
The two-parameter Weibull distribution has garnered much attention in the assessment of wind energy potential. The estimation of the shape and scale parameters of the distribution has brought forth a successful tool for the wind energy industry. However, it may be inappropriate to use the two-parameter Weibull distribution to accurately characterize wind speed at every location, especially at sites where the frequency of low speed is high, such as the Equatorial region. In this work, for the robustness in wind resource assessment, we first propose a Bayesian approach in estimating Weibull parameters. Secondly, we compare the techniques of wind resource assessment using both two and three-parameter Weibull distributions for different sites in the Equatorial region. The Bayesian inference approach is adopted using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Simulation studies conducted in this research confirms that the Bayesian approach seems to be a new robust alternative technique for accurate estimation of Weibull parameters. An appropriate Weibull distribution and the application of the Bayesian approach in estimating distribution parameters were determined using data from six sites in the Equatorial region from 1° N of Equator to 19° South of Equator. Results revealed that a three-parameter Weibull distribution is a better fit for wind data having a greater percentage of low wind speeds (0-1 m/s) and low skewness. However, wind data with a smaller percentage of low wind speeds and high skewness showed better results using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. The results also demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian approach to estimate Weibull parameters is extremely useful in the analysis of wind power potential, as it provides more accurate results while characterizing lower wind speeds.
Bayesian Method for Estimating Weibull Parameters for Wind Resource Assessment in the Equatorial Region: a Comparison Between Two-parameter and Three-parameter Weibull Distributions
