scholarly journals Cointegration Testing Using Pseudolikelihood Ratio Tests

1997 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Lucas
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Asymptotic Distributions ◽  
Nuisance Parameters ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Models ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Higher Power ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Cointegration Testing

This paper considers pseudomaximum likelihood estimators for vector autoregressive models. These estimators are used to determine the cointegration rank of a multivariate time series process using pseudolikelihood ratio tests. The asymptotic distributions of these tests depend on nuisance parameters if the pseudolikelihood is non-Gaussian. This even holds if the likelihood is correctly specified. The nuisance parameters have a natural interpretation and can be consistently estimated. Some simulation results illustrate the usefulness of the tests: non-Gaussian pseudolikelihood ratio tests generally have a higher power than the Gaussian test of Johansen if the innovations demonstrate leptokurtic behavior.

scholarly journals Asymptotic Distributions of M-Estimates for Parameters of Multivariate Time Series with Strong Mixing Property

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Alexander Kushnir ◽  
Alexander Varypaev
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Asymptotic Normality ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Asymptotic Properties ◽  
Asymptotic Distributions ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Strong Mixing ◽  
Statistical Estimates ◽  
Distribution Parameters ◽  
M Estimates

The publication is devoted to studying asymptotic properties of statistical estimates of the distribution parameters u∈Rq of a multidimensional random stationary time series zt∈Rm, t∈ℤ satisfying the strong mixing conditions. We consider estimates u^nδ(z¯n), z¯n=(z1T,…,znT)T∈Rmn that provide in asymptotic n→∞ the maximum values for some objective functions Qn(z¯n;u), which have properties similar to the well-known property of local asymptotic normality. These estimates are constructed by solving the equations δn(z¯n;u)=0, where δn(z¯n;u) are arbitrary functions for which δn(z¯n;u)−gradhQn(z¯n;u+n−1/2h)→0(n→∞) in Pn,u(z¯n)-probability uniformly on u∈U, were U is compact in Rq. In many cases, the estimates u^nδ(z¯n) have the same asymptotic properties as well-known M-estimates defined by equations u^nQ(z¯n)=arg maxu∈UQn(z¯n;u) but often can be much simpler computationally. We consider an algorithmic method for constructing estimates u^nδ(z¯n), which is similar to the accumulation method first proposed by R. Fischer and rigorously developed by L. Le Cam. The main theoretical result of the article is the proof of the theorem, in which conditions of the asymptotic normality of estimates u^nδ(z¯n) are formulated, and the expression is proposed for their matrix of asymptotic mean-square deviations limn→∞nEn,u{(u^δ(z¯n)−u)(u^δ(z¯n)−u)T}.

ROBUST OPTIMAL TESTS FOR CAUSALITY IN MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES

2008 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 948-987 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdessamad Saidi ◽  
Roch Roy
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Asymptotic Methods ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Statistical Decision Theory ◽  
Affine Transformations ◽  
Statistical Decision ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Optimal Tests ◽  
Asymptotically Optimal Tests

Here, we derive optimal rank-based tests for noncausality in the sense of Granger between two multivariate time series. Assuming that the global process admits a joint stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) representation with an elliptically symmetric innovation density, both no feedback and one direction causality hypotheses are tested. Using the characterization of noncausality in the VAR context, the local asymptotic normality (LAN) theory described in Le Cam (1986, Asymptotic Methods in Statistical Decision Theory) allows for constructing locally and asymptotically optimal tests for the null hypothesis of noncausality in one or both directions. These tests are based on multivariate residual ranks and signs (Hallin and Paindaveine, 2004a, Annals of Statistics 32, 2642–2678) and are shown to be asymptotically distribution free under elliptically symmetric innovation densities and invariant with respect to some affine transformations. Local powers and asymptotic relative efficiencies are also derived. The level, power, and robustness (to outliers) of the resulting tests are studied by simulation and are compared to those of the Wald test. Finally, the new tests are applied to Canadian money and income data.

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