Predictions of Deep Excavation Responses Considering Model Uncertainty: Integrating BiLSTM Neural Networks with Bayesian Updating

Author(s):  
Yuanqin Tao ◽  
Honglei Sun ◽  
Yuanqiang Cai
Author(s):  
Lei Shi ◽  
Cosmin Copot ◽  
Steve Vanlanduit

Abstract Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have shown great success in many fields. Various network architectures have been developed for different applications. Regardless of the complexities of the networks, DNNs do not provide model uncertainty. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), on the other hand, is able to make probabilistic inference. Among various types of BNNs, Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation converts a Neural Network (NN) to a BNN by adding a dropout layer after each weight layer in the NN. This technique provides a simple transformation from a NN to a BNN. However, for DNNs, adding a dropout layer to each weight layer would lead to a strong regularization due to the deep architecture. Previous researches [1, 2, 3] have shown that adding a dropout layer after each weight layer in a DNN is unnecessary. However, how to place dropout layers in a ResNet for regression tasks are less explored. In this work, we perform an empirical study on how different dropout placements would affect the performance of a Bayesian DNN. We use a regression model modified from ResNet as the DNN and place the dropout layers at different places in the regression ResNet. Our experimental results show that it is not necessary to add a dropout layer after every weight layer in the Regression ResNet to let it be able to make Bayesian Inference. Placing Dropout layers between the stacked blocks i.e. Dense+Identity+Identity blocks has the best performance in Predictive Interval Coverage Probability (PICP). Placing a dropout layer after each stacked block has the best performance in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).


Author(s):  
Dianqing Li ◽  
Shengkun Zhang ◽  
Wenyong Tang

The classical probability theory cannot effectively quantify the parameter uncertainty in probability of detection. Furthermore, the conventional data analytic method and expert judgment method fail to handle the problem of model uncertainty updating with the information from nondestructive inspection. To overcome these disadvantages, a Bayesian approach was proposed to quantify the parameter uncertainty in probability of detection. Furthermore, the formulae of the multiplication factors to measure the statistical uncertainties in the probability of detection following the Weibull distribution were derived. A Bayesian updating method was applied to compute the posterior probabilities of model weights and the posterior probability density functions of distribution parameters of probability of detection. A total probability model method was proposed to analyze the problem of multi-layered model uncertainty updating. This method was then applied to the problem of multi-layered corrosion model uncertainty updating for ship structures. The results indicate that the proposed method is very effectively in analyzing the problem of multi-layered model uncertainty updating.


2000 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruoxue Zhang ◽  
Sankaran Mahadevan

2017 ◽  
Vol 319 ◽  
pp. 124-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitris G. Giovanis ◽  
Iason Papaioannou ◽  
Daniel Straub ◽  
Vissarion Papadopoulos

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