Backwards induction in the centipede game

Analysis ◽  
1999 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. 237-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Broome ◽  
W. Rabinowicz
Keyword(s):  

1996 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Glazer ◽  
Motty Perry
Keyword(s):  






1996 ◽  
Vol 33 (03) ◽  
pp. 630-639 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. P. Quine ◽  
J. S. Law

We consider the following secretary problem: items ranked from 1 to n are randomly selected without replacement, one at a time, and to ‘win' is to stop at an item whose overall rank is less than or equal to s, given only the relative ranks of the items drawn so far. Our method of analysis is based on the existence of an imbedded Markov chain and uses the technique of backwards induction. In principal the approach can be used to give exact results for any value of s; we do the working for s = 3. We give exact results for the optimal strategy, the probability of success and the distribution of T, and the total number of draws when the optimal strategy is implemented. We also give some asymptotic results for these quantities as n → ∞.



2002 ◽  
Vol 65 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Iqbal ◽  
A. H. Toor


1992 ◽  
Vol 29 (03) ◽  
pp. 633-644
Author(s):  
K. D. Glazebrook ◽  
Michael P. Bailey ◽  
Lyn R. Whitaker

In response to the computational complexity of the dynamic programming/backwards induction approach to the development of optimal policies for semi-Markov decision processes, we propose a class of heuristics resulting from an inductive process which proceeds forwards in time. These heuristics always choose actions in such a way as to minimize some measure of the current cost rate. We describe a procedure for calculating such cost rate heuristics. The quality of the performance of such policies is related to the speed of evolution (in a cost sense) of the process. A simple model of preventive maintenance is described in detail. Cost rate heuristics for this problem are calculated and assessed computationally.





2000 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Priest

Backwards induction is an intriguing form of argument. It is used in a number of different contexts. One of these is the surprise exam paradox. Another is game theory. But its use is problematic, at least sometimes. The purpose of this paper is to determine what, exactly, backwards induction is, and hence to evaluate it. Let us start by rehearsing informally some of its problematic applications.



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