The paper mainly studies the available transfer capability of wind farm incorporated power system, and proposes an on-line calculating method considering many uncertain factors. First based on continuation power flow, an improved algorithm of the key constraint by linear prediction is proposed so as to obtain deterministic ATC with the expansion power flow equation. Then Monte Carlo simulation is used which takes many uncertain factors into considerations, such as wind speed, the random fault of generators and lines, the fluctuation of generators and load, etc. With hierarchical clustering algorithm, the samples with the same key constraint can be divided into one category without repeatedly predicting key constraint, so the probabilistic ATC in all kinds of conditions can be got rapidly and precisely. Finally a case study demonstrates the validity and superiority of method proposed in this paper. The research could be a valuable reference to power market operations and wind farm planning.
