MAP(ASH): A new scoring system for the prediction of intervention and mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Abstract Background: Recently, a new international bleeding score was developed to predict 30-day hospital mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). However, the efficacy of this newly developed scoring system has not been extensively investigated. We aimed to validate a new scoring system for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with non-variceal UGIB and determine whether a higher score is associated with re-bleeding, length of hospital stay, and endoscopic failure.Methods: A retrospective study was performed on 905 patients with acute non-variceal UGIB who were examined in our hospital between January 2013 and December 2017. Baseline characteristics, endoscopic findings, re-bleeding, admission, and mortality were reviewed. The 30-day mortality rate of the new international bleeding risk score was calculated using the receiver operating characteristic curves and compared to the pre-endoscopy Rockall score, AIMS65, Glasgow Blatchford score, and Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva score. To verify the variable for the 30-day mortality of the new scoring system, we performed multivariate logistic regression using our data and further analyzed the score items.Results: The new international bleeding scoring system showed higher receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve values in predicting mortality (area under ROC curve 0.958; [95% confidence interval (CI)]), compared with such as AIMS65 (AUROC, 0.832; 95%CI, 0.806-0.856; P<0.001), PNED (AUROC, 0.865; 95%CI, 0.841-0.886; P<0.001), Pre-RS (AUROC, 0.802; 95%CI, 0.774-0.827; P<0.001), and GBS (AUROC, 0.765; 95%CI, 0.736-0.793; P <0.001). Multivariate analysis was performed using our data and showed that the 30-day mortality rate was related to multiple comorbidities, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, albumin, syncope at first visit, and endoscopic failure within 24 hours during the first admission. In addition, in the high-score group, relatively long hospital stay, re-bleeding, and endoscopic failure were observed.Conclusion: The new international bleeding score could predict 30-day mortality better than the other scoring systems. High-risk patients can be screened using this new scoring system to predict 30-day mortality. The use of this scoring system seems to improve the outcomes of non-variceal UGIB patients through proper management and intervention.

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Validation of a New Risk Score System for Non-variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

10.21203/rs.2.14578/v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Min Seong Kim ◽

Hee Seok Moon ◽

In Sun Kwon ◽

Jae Ho Park ◽

Ju Seok Kim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Gastrointestinal Bleeding ◽

Roc Curve ◽

Scoring System ◽

Operating Characteristic ◽

Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding ◽

Scoring Systems ◽

Bleeding Score ◽

Upper Gastrointestinal ◽

New Scoring

Abstract Background Recently, a new international bleeding score was developed to predict 30-day hospital mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). However, the efficacy of this newly developed scoring system has not been extensively investigated. We aimed to validate a new scoring system for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with non-variceal UGIB and determine whether a higher score is associated with re-bleeding, length of hospital stay and endoscopic failure.Methods A retrospective study was performed on 905 cases with acute non-varieal UGIB who were examined in our hospital between January 2013 and December 2017. Baseline characteristics, endoscopic findings, re-bleeding, admission, and mortality were reviewed. The 30-day mortality rate of the new international bleeding risk score was calculated using the receiver operating characteristic curves and compared to the pre-endoscopy Rockall score, AIMS65, Glasgow Blatchford score, and Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva score. To verify the variable for the 30-day mortality of the new scoring system, we performed multivariate logistic regression using our data and further analyzed the score items.Results Compared with other scoring systems, the new international bleeding scoring system showed higher receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve values in predicting mortality. (area under ROC curve 0.832; [95% confidence interval (CI)]) Multivariate analysis was performed using our data, the 30-day mortality rate was related to multiple comorbidities, BUN, creatinine, albumin, syncope at first visit, and endoscopic failure at first admission within 24 hours. In addition, in the new high score group, relatively long hospital stays, re-bleeding, and endoscopic failure were observed.Conclusion The new international bleeding score could predict 30-day mortality better than the other scoring systems. High-risk patients can be screened using this new scoring system to predict 30-day mortality. The use of this scoring system seems to improve the outcomes of non-variceal UGIB patients through proper management and intervention.

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