Uncertainty analysis on the water resource system in water-supply zone of Tarim River watershed: based on the multiplication frequency curve type III(X-III 2 )

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangyun Li ◽  
Lixing Yang ◽  
Lixin Wang
Author(s):  
A. T. Lennard ◽  
N. Macdonald ◽  
J. Hooke

Abstract. Droughts are a reoccurring feature of the UK climate; recent drought events (2004–2006 and 2010–2012) have highlighted the UK’s continued vulnerability to this hazard. There is a need for further understanding of extreme events, particularly from a water resource perspective. A number of drought indices are available, which can help to improve our understanding of drought characteristics such as frequency, severity and duration. However, at present little of this is applied to water resource management in the water supply sector. Improved understanding of drought characteristics using indices can inform water resource management plans and enhance future drought resilience. This study applies the standardised precipitation index (SPI) to a series of rainfall records (1962–2012) across the water supply region of a single utility provider. Key droughts within this period are analysed to develop an understanding of the meteorological characteristics that lead to, exist during and terminate drought events. The results of this analysis highlight how drought severity and duration can vary across a small-scale water supply region, indicating that the spatial coherence of drought events cannot be assumed.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dedi Liu

<p>The increasing magnitude and frequency of undesirable events, driven by climate and anthropogenic changes, have given rise to various approaches for quantifying the resilience of regional water resource systems. However, the deficiencies of these approaches in describing linkages among subsystems and disturbance-dependent resilience have hindered the assessment and prediction of resilience in water resource management. The nexus approach enables the propagation of a disturbance to be simulated (a process called surrogate disturbance generation). An approach analogous to a unit hydrograph is developed, and resilience routing (strain flow routing), which is a novel framework and model of the dynamic resilience process, is proposed for the evaluation of a regional water resource system. The proposed framework and model are applied to the Jinghong regional water resource system. Taking a pollution event as a disturbance, the responses of the water supply, fishery and electricity subsystems are simulated to test the validity of the proposed methods. The linkages among subsystems are determined according to the sink-source dynamic using the nexus approach, and the levels of surrogate disturbance transformed from the disturbance event can be quantified by the processes of dynamic resilience evaluation. The shape of the dynamic resilience process is quantified by the parameters of unit resilience routing with disturbance independence and reflects the characteristics of the system responding to the disturbance. The proposed method helps to assess the adaptive capacity of a water system to alleviate and regulate disturbances. Furthermore, after the calibration and validation of the assumptions of linearity inherent in the method, it can also be used to predict the dynamic resilience processes of every subsystem in response to any disturbance event affecting a regional water resource system.</p>


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