scholarly journals BAYESIAN INFERENCE OF STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL BY HYBRID MONTE CARLO

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (08) ◽  
pp. 1381-1396 ◽  
Author(s):  
TETSUYA TAKAISHI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Metropolis Algorithm ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Hybrid Monte Carlo ◽  
Volatility Model

The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is applied for the Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model. We use the HMC algorithm for the Markov chain Monte Carlo updates of volatility variables of the SV model. First we compute parameters of the SV model by using the artificial financial data and compare the results from the HMC algorithm with those from the Metropolis algorithm. We find that the HMC algorithm decorrelates the volatility variables faster than the Metropolis algorithm. Second we make an empirical study for the time series of the Nikkei 225 stock index by the HMC algorithm. We find the similar correlation behavior for the sampled data to the results from the artificial financial data and obtain a ϕ value close to one (ϕ ≈ 0.977), which means that the time series has the strong persistency of the volatility shock.

scholarly journals A note on stochastic volatility model estimation

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Omar Abbara ◽  
Mauricio Zevallos
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Model Estimation ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Monte Carlo Evaluation

<p>The paper assesses the method proposed by Shumway and Stoffer (2006, Chapter 6, Section 10) to estimate the parameters and volatility of stochastic volatility models. First, the paper presents a Monte Carlo evaluation of the parameter estimates considering several distributions for the perturbations in the observation equation. Second, the method is assessed empirically, through backtesting evaluation of VaR forecasts of the S&amp;P 500 time series returns. In both analyses, the paper also evaluates the convenience of using the Fuller transformation.</p>

Estimation of SV Model with Leverage Effect Based on MCMC Technique

2014 ◽  
Vol 530-531 ◽  
pp. 605-608
Author(s):  
Xiao Cui Yin
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Leverage Effect ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Convergence Diagnostics ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Mcmc Simulation ◽  
Series Convergence

This paper is to study the estimation of stochastic volatility model with leverage effect using Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique. The data used is China's Shenzheng stock index. Estimations of model parameters are achieved by using MCMC technique in Openbugs Software, results show that there is leverage effect in Shenzheng stock series, convergence diagnostics suggest that parameters of the model are convergent.

scholarly journals Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques of Unobserved Component Time Series Models Using Ox

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nima Nonejad
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Monte Carlo ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Unobserved Component ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Component Time

AbstractThis paper details particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) techniques for analysis of unobserved component time series models using several economic data sets. The objective of this paper is to explain the basics of the methodology and provide computational applications that justify applying PMCMC in practice. For instance, we use PMCMC to estimate a stochastic volatility model with a leverage effect, Student-t distributed errors or serial dependence. We also model time series characteristics of monthly US inflation rate by considering a heteroskedastic ARFIMA model where heteroskedasticity is specified by means of a Gaussian stochastic volatility process.

A control variate method for weak approximation of SDEs via discretization of numerical error of asymptotic expansion

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-252
Author(s):  
Yusuke Okano ◽  
Toshihiro Yamada
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Asymptotic Expansion ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Diffusion Processes ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Weak Approximation ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Control Variate ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Multidimensional Diffusion

Abstract The paper shows a new weak approximation method for stochastic differential equations as a generalization and an extension of Heath–Platen’s scheme for multidimensional diffusion processes. We reformulate the Heath–Platen estimator from the viewpoint of asymptotic expansion. The proposed scheme is implemented by a Monte Carlo method and its variance is much reduced by the asymptotic expansion which works as a kind of control variate. Numerical examples for the local stochastic volatility model are shown to confirm the efficiency of the method.

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