Detection of structural regimes and analyzing the impact of crude oil market on Canadian stock market: Markov regime-switching approach

Purpose This study aims to analyze the impact of the crude oil market on the Toronto Stock Exchange Index (TSX). Design/methodology/approach The focus is on detecting nonlinear relationship based on monthly data from 1970 to 2021 using Markov-switching vector auto regression (VAR) model. Findings The results indicate that TSX return contains two regimes: positive return (Regime 1), when growth rate of stock index is positive; and negative return (Regime 2), when growth rate of stock index is negative. Moreover, Regime 1 is more volatile than Regime 2. The findings also show the crude oil market has a negative effect on the stock market in Regime 1, while it has a positive effect on the stock market in Regime 2. In addition, the authors can see this effect in Regime 1 more significantly in comparison to Regime 2. Furthermore, two-period lag of oil price decreases stock return in Regime 1, while it increases stock return in Regime 2. Originality/value This study aims to address the effect of oil market fluctuation on TSX index using Markov-switching approach and capture the nonlinearities between them. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to assess the effect of the oil market on TSX in different regimes using Markov-switching VAR model. Because Canada is the sixth-largest producer and exporter of oil in the world as well as the TSX as the Canada’s main stock exchange is the tenth-largest stock exchange in the world by market capitalization, this paper’s framework to analyze a nonlinear relationship between oil market and the stock market of Canada helps stock market players like policymakers, institutional investors and private investors to get a better understanding of the real world.

Effect of Solvency and Liquidity on The Profitability of Property Companies Listed on The Sharia Stock Index 2018-2020

<p><em>This study analyzes the effect of Solvency and Liquidity on the profitability of property companies listed on the Indonesian Islamic stock index for the 2018-2020 period. This research is quantitative research with secondary data from financial reports from 2018 to 2021. Regression model analysis using Common Effect Model (CE) or Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The findings show that DAR has a negative effect on ROA, which explains that debt will burden the company and reduce the profit level of Islamic property companies. On the other hand, DAR has no effect on ROE because debt does not affect the value of equity owned by the company itself. DER has no effect on ROA and ROE, this is certainly contrary to the Pecking Order Theory. Current Ratio has a negative effect on ROA, this is not in accordance with </em><em>Pecking Order Theory</em><em>. Cash ratio has a positive effect on ROA and also on ROE, and is in accordance with </em><em>Pecking Order Theory</em><em>. The cash ratio as the company's ability to pay short term has a positive influence, because the company is not limited to being responsible for the environment around the company but also socially responsible to the community.</em></p><p> </p><p>Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh Solvabilitas dan Likuiditas terhadap profitabilitas perusahaan properti yang terdaftar di indeks saham syariah Indonesia periode 2018-2020. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data sekunder dari laporan keuangan tahun 2018 sampai dengan tahun 2021. Analisis model regresi menggunakan metode Common Effect Model (CE) atau Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa DAR berpengaruh negatif terhadap ROA, yang menjelaskan bahwa utang akan membebani perusahaan dan mengurangi tingkat keuntungan perusahaan properti syariah. Di sisi lain, DAR tidak berpengaruh terhadap ROE karena hutang tidak mempengaruhi nilai ekuitas yang dimiliki oleh perusahaan itu sendiri. DER tidak berpengaruh terhadap ROA dan ROE, hal ini tentunya bertentangan dengan Pecking Order Theory. Besarnya ekuitas utang secara khusus tidak berdampak pada tingkat keuntungan perusahaan properti. Current Ratio berpengaruh negatif terhadap ROA, hal ini tidak sesuai dengan Stakeholder Theory. Kondisi ini menyebabkan Current Ratio berpengaruh negatif terhadap ROE. Cash ratio berpengaruh positif terhadap ROA, dimana Cash Ratio berpengaruh positif terhadap ROE, dan sesuai dengan Stakeholder Theory. Rasio kas sebagai kemampuan perusahaan untuk membayar jangka pendek memiliki pengaruh positif, karena perusahaan tidak sebatas bertanggung jawab terhadap lingkungan sekitar perusahaan tetapi juga bertanggung jawab secara sosial kepada masyarakat.</p><p><em> </em><em></em></p><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; border: none; mso-padding-alt: 31.0pt 31.0pt 31.0pt 31.0pt; mso-border-shadow: yes;"><input id="ext" type="hidden" value="1" /><input id="ext" type="hidden" value="1" /></p>

On directors’ compensation: a multilevel analysis of Spanish listed companies

This study analyzes the determinants of the annual compensation of directors belonging to the boards of the Spanish companies that constitute the IBEX 35 stock index. We investigate the importance of observed and unobserved heterogeneity in explaining director compensation. Based on a three-level mixed effect model, our analysis includes time-invariant random effects at company and manager level as determinants of director pay. We find that company effects explain 30% of the variation in director pay, while company and director effects taken together explain 77% of that variation. Our findings suggest that the characteristics of the company, in terms of activity sector, size and financial performance, and the professional attributes of the director (especially the role within the board), influence the compensation received. In addition, some directors and companies show random effects (either positive or negative) that significantly separate them from the expected compensation estimated from the fixed part of the model.

Permutation entropy and statistical analysis of the historical evolution of the Mexican stock market index

The objective of this work is to analyze the Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones (IPC), which is the Mexican stock market index, by using several statistical tools in order to study the tendencies that can shed light on the evolution of the IPC towards a more efficient market. The methodology used is to apply the statistical tools to the Mexican index and compare the results with a mature and well-known market index such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). We employ an autocorrelation analysis, and the volatility of the indexes, applied to the daily returns of the closing price on a moving time window during the studied period (1980–2018). Additionally, we perform an order three permutation entropy analysis, which can quantify the disorder present in the time series. Our results show that there is evidence that the IPC has become more mature since its creation and that it can be considered an efficient market since around year 2000. The behavior of the several techniques used shows a similar behavior to the DJIA which is not observed before that year. There are some limitations mainly because there is no high frequency data that would permit a more detailed analysis, specifically in the periods before and after a crisis is located. Our conclusion is that since around the year 2000, the Mexican stock index displays the typical behavior of other mature markets and can be considered as one.

DAMPAK COVID-19 TERHADAP INDEK HARGA SAHAM IDX BUMN20 TAHUN 2020

This article analyzes the impact of stock price efficiency on the Covid-19 event in 2020. As a capital market tool, shares are interpreted as evidence that a person has equity participation in a company or limited liability company. The emergence of the impact of Covid-19 on the price index is detrimental to the country's economy. State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN), which are the drivers of economic growth, has also been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. This analysis needs to be carried out to find out the impact of Covid-19 on the stock price of IDX BUMN20 regarding the effects before and before the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus in Indonesia in 2020. The research method used is exploratory descriptive with a quantitative approach and the data collected is descriptive. Secondary data from the IDX and the Central Statistics Agency regarding the condition of economic growth and the SOE stock price index in 2020. Based on the results obtained, the first conclusion is that Indonesia's economic growth from 2019 was 5.02% and in 2020 was 2.07%, so that economic growth decreased from 2019 to 2020 by 2.95. Furthermore, the IDX BUMN20 stock index also fell to 18.39% throughout 2020.

The emotional cost-of-carry: Chinese investor sentiment and equity index futures basis

PurposeWhile the classic futures pricing tool works well for capital markets that are less affected by sentiment, it needs further modification in China's case as retail investors constitute a large portion of the Chinese stock market participants. Their expectations of the rate of return are prone to emotional swings. This paper, therefore, explores the role of investor sentiment in explaining futures basis changes via the channel of implied discount rates.Design/methodology/approachUsing Chinese equity market data from 2010 to 2019, the authors augment the cost-of-carry model for pricing stock index futures by incorporating the investor sentiment factor. This design allows us to estimate the basis in a better way that reflects the relationship between the underlying index price and its futures price.FindingsThe authors find strong evidence that the measure of Chinese investor sentiment drives the abnormal fluctuations in the basis of China's stock index futures. Moreover, this driving force turns out to be much less prominent for large-cap stocks, liquid contracting frequencies, regulatory loosening periods and mature markets, further verifying the sentiment argument for basis mispricing.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by relying on investor sentiment measures to explain the persistent discount anomaly of index futures basis in China. This finding is of great importance for Chinese investors with the intention to implement arbitrage, hedging and speculation strategies.

Optimal portfolio analysis of manufacturing entities in the Indonesia Sharia Stock Index

The purpose of this research is to determine the optimal portfolio for manufacturing entities listed on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index based on a single index model test. The population of this research is manufacturing entities that have been listed in the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the Period 2019-2020. This study uses a purposive sampling technique using several criteria. Based on this technique, 31 entities meet the criteria. The results showed that the expected return was 5.65%, and the possible risk was 0.22% for 15 (fifteen) stocks included in the optimal portfolio category.

Performance Evaluation of Machine Learning Algorithms for Stock Price and Stock Index Movement Prediction Using Trend Deterministic Data Prediction

This experimental study addresses the problem of predicting the direction of stocks and the movement of stock price indices for three major stocks and stock indices. The proposed approach for processing input data involves the computation of ten technical indicators using stock trading data. The dataset used for the evaluation of all the prediction models consists of 11 years of historical data from January 2007 to December 2017. The study comprises four prediction models which are Long Short-Term Memory, XGBoost, Support Vector Machine ( and Random forests. Accuracy scores and F1 scores for each of the prediction models have been evaluated using this input approach. Experimental results reveal that a continuous data approach using ten technical indicators gives the best performance in the case of the Random Forest classifier model with the highest accuracy of 84.89% (average wise 83.74%) and highest F1 score of 89.33% (average wise 83.74%). The experiments also give us an insight into why a Naïve Bayes Classification model is not a suitable prediction model for the above task.

An Empirical Analysis of Oil and Stock Markets’ Volatility Based on the DGC-MSV-t Model

We investigate the spillover effect between crude oil future prices, crude oil spot prices, and stock index by using the multivariate stochastic volatility model. These tests between each market show the significant Granger causes of spillover effect. More and more evidences show that the crude oil price has been affected by other financial markets. The oil future played an important role in the energy market. WTI and Brent oil future have more spillover effect than INE oil future. The result shows that S&P stock market is more sensitive to the oil price than Shanghai stock market. The cross-market spillover effect we found can give some advices for the investor of oil and stock market. DIC test shows that DGC-MSV-t is considered effective and more accurate.