Typhoon Initialization in a Mesoscale Model—Combination of the Bogused Vortex and the Dropwindsonde Data in DOTSTAR

Abstract Issues concerning the initialization and simulation of tropical cyclones by integrating both dropwindsonde data and a bogused vortex into a mesoscale model have been studied. A method is proposed to combine dropwindsonde data with a bogused vortex for tropical cyclone initialization and to improve track and intensity prediction. A clear positive impact of this proposed method on both the tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts in a mesoscale model is demonstrated in three cases of typhoons, including Meari (2004), Conson (2004), and Megi (2004). The effectiveness of the proposed method in improving the track and intensity forecasts is also demonstrated in the evaluation of all 10 cases of Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR) missions in 2004. This method provides a useful and practical means to improve operational tropical cyclone prediction with dropwindsonde observations.

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Tropical cyclone track and intensity prediction with a structure adjustable balanced vortex

Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1007/s13143-011-0018-7 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 47 (3) ◽

pp. 293-303 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Hyeong-Bin Cheong ◽

In-Hyuk Kwon ◽

Hyun-Gyu Kang ◽

Ja-Rin Park ◽

Hyun-Jun Han ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Cyclone Track ◽

Tropical Cyclone Track ◽

Intensity Prediction

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A Description of the Real-Time HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) for Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Guidance

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf-d-17-0068.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 33 (1) ◽

pp. 37-57 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Anu Simon ◽

Andrew B. Penny ◽

Mark DeMaria ◽

James L. Franklin ◽

Richard J. Pasch ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Deterministic Model ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Cyclone Track ◽

Consensus Approach ◽

Tropical Cyclone Track ◽

Improvement Program ◽

Input Model ◽

Environmental Prediction ◽

Weighting Coefficients

Abstract This study discusses the development of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) for tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts. The HCCA technique relies on the forecasts of separate input models for both track and intensity and assigns unequal weighting coefficients based on a set of training forecasts. The HCCA track and intensity forecasts for 2015 were competitive with some of the best-performing operational guidance at the National Hurricane Center (NHC); HCCA was the most skillful model for Atlantic track forecasts through 48 h. Average track input model coefficients for the 2015 forecasts in both the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins were largest for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) deterministic model and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble mean, but the relative magnitudes of the intensity coefficients were more varied. Input model sensitivity experiments conducted using retrospective HCCA forecasts from 2011 to 2015 indicate that the ECMWF deterministic model had the largest positive impact on the skill of the HCCA track forecasts in both basins. The most important input models for HCCA intensity forecasts are the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model and the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone (COAMPS-TC) model initialized from the GFS. Several updates were incorporated into the HCCA formulation prior to the 2016 season. Verification results indicate HCCA continued to be a skillful model, especially for short-range (12–48 h) track forecasts in both basins.

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