Forest transition theory posits that socioeconomic development in a
country or region may cause its forestland to shift from net loss to net
gain. However, forest transition may also occur under various policies,
resulting in forest gains in some regions but deforestation in other
regions. We used the telecoupling framework to address this crucially
important issue that has rarely been examined. Using time series
satellite images and statistical yearbook data from 2000 to 2020, this
study seeks to understand land use change patterns, the corresponding
regional spillover effects, and driving forces behind such patterns in
Zhejiang Province, China. The results show that large-scale continuous
deforestation has taken place since 2000, causing a total loss of
forestland by 186,014 ha. In parallel with this forest loss and a slight
decrease in arable land, urban construction land has soared by 169.45%.
We found that developed municipalities such as Hangzhou witnessed
increases in urban land at the expense of large-scale deforestation in
underdeveloped municipalities such as Lishui. We believe that this
cross-region land change pattern may arise from the Balance of Arable
Land System (BALS) policy that seeks to achieve a goal of no net loss of
cropland. Whatever land use policy—such as the BALS policy—must
strike a good balance between competitive land uses that have different
objectives such as residents’ living, ecology, and production. In
addition to enriching the forest transition theory, this study provides
a solid basis for future land use decisions in developing regions or
countries.
To Bend the Curve of Terrestrial Biodiversity, Place Agency Centre Stage
