scholarly journals A Quantitative Perspective on Optimal Monetary Policy Cooperation between the US and the Euro Area

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stéphane A. Adjemian ◽  
Matthieu Darracq Paries ◽  
Frank Smets
2017 ◽  
Vol 100 ◽  
pp. 95-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoshan Chen ◽  
Tatiana Kirsanova ◽  
Campbell Leith

Significance The sharp slide in the forint is fuelling inflationary pressures, testing the resolve of the National Bank (MNB -- the central bank) to continue providing stimulus to the economy. Despite a surge in core inflation in Hungary to 3.8%, the MNB is using this year’s dovish U-turns by the ECB and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as cover to keep monetary policy ultra-loose. Impacts The dollar index is strengthening despite the dovish U-turn by the Fed and is putting an end to the sharp rally in EM currencies in January. Inflationary pressures will be muted across the euro-area, with core inflation falling to 0.8% in March, less than half the ECB’s target. PMIs show Czech and Polish manufacturing sectors continuing to contract and Hungarian growth at its weakest level since 2016.


2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (11) ◽  
pp. 3019-3041 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Musso ◽  
Stefano Neri ◽  
Livio Stracca

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-346
Author(s):  
Martin Pažický

Abstract The aim of this article is to investigate the consequences of oil price changes for the economy of the US and the euro area. Oil price transmission channel is assessed using Granger causalities and structural vector autoregressive (VAR) specifications (applying the Cholesky factorization and the restrictions following the method of Blanchard and Quah). The conventional oil price transmission channel is extended by a shadow policy rate and term premium, as the importance of both indicators has been growing rapidly in recent years. The results confirm that the oil price shock is not negligible in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis and in the subsequent period of monetary policy normalization. The findings are confirmed by the outcomes of the Bayesian VAR specification with sign restrictions. The consequences of changes in oil prices have significantly grown since the introduction of unconventional monetary instruments. The magnitude of the response of industrial production, price level and shadow interest rate to the oil price shock is strongest in the period corresponding to the unconventional monetary policy. In many cases, however, the reaction is short-lived. The conventional instrument (policy rate) in the euro area has still not been sufficient to stabilize the economy in the recent period of monetary policy normalization in the US.


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