OCA INDEX AS INDICATOR OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC'S PREPAREDNESS TO JOIN THE EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION

The optimum currency area (OCA) theory evaluates the currency area as optimum at a time when the participating countries are not at risk of macroeconomic instability due to the existence of a common currency. The OCA index is a tool used to comprehensively assess the costs and benefits of a candidate for joining a monetary union. It is constructed as a bilateral index assessing the appropriateness of introducing the single currency in two countries. The article presents the OCA index quantified for the Czech Republic in relation to Germany, which is considered to be the core of the European Monetary Union. Since the OCA index needs to be interpreted in a temporal or spatial comparison, the calculation of the OCA index was also performed for other countries of the Visegrad Group (V4) and furthermore for Austria and Portugal, using data from the period of 2007–2019. The results of the OCA index show a high degree of variability in the Czech Republic in the observed period. While in the first half of the period under review, the Czech Republic achieved the best results within the assessed economies and the Czech Republic's level of preparedness for the common currency with Germany was higher than in the case of Austria, it fell sharply after 2012. The reason can be seen, among other things, in the higher growth rate of the Czech economy than in the euro area. Although the OCA index is an indicator assessing the preparedness of an economy to join a monetary union, it cannot be the only indicator. Other important criteria include, for example, labour mobility, price and wage flexibility, fiscal integration and more. Although the Czech Republic is approaching the euro area average in all key indicators, the gap from it remains significant for most indicators and thus continues to be a factor against the adoption of the euro in the coming years.

11. The institutions of Economic and Monetary Union:

Since 1999, a subset of EU member states—known collectively as the euro area—has delegated exclusive competence for monetary policy to the European Central Bank (ECB), while giving limited powers to the European Commission, ECOFIN, and the Eurogroup in other areas of economic policy. The euro crisis provided the first major test of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), as a sovereign debt crisis spread between member states and threatened to tear the single currency apart. The ECB and two new institutions—the European Stability Mechanism and Euro Summit—helped to keep the euro area together but at significant economic and political cost. EU institutions were better prepared for the initial economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the crisis still produced important institutional changes. The COVID-19 recovery fund Next Generation EU gives the Commission and Council a major new role in economic policy, albeit a temporary one for now. The EMU illustrates three key dimensions of EU institutional politics: the tension between intergovernmental versus supranational institutions, leaders versus followers, and legitimacy versus contestation. It also reveals the explanatory power of new institutionalism among other theoretical perspectives.

Effects from Brexit on the EU-27 and the Euro Area Developments

Brexit affects all the aspects of life, business and European integration process. It has strong implications also on the developments in the Euro Area despite the fact that the United Kingdom had the so-called “opt-out clause” for not adopting the single currency within the EU as well as despite the abstinence of the UK from participation in the Banking Union of the EU. The purpose of this study is to analyse some important aspects of the influence of Brexit on the EU-27 and the Euro Area developments. It is too early to draw final conclusions on the effects of Brexit on the EU-27 and the Euro Area developments. However, some possible implications may be outlined even today as for example the opportunity for consolidation of the Euro Area and its current reforms, possible implications for the EU decision making process and even a possible stimulation of the enlargement of the Euro Area.

Inflation expectations matter more than unemployment

Significance The surge in inflation this year owes more to supply bottlenecks caused by the release of pent-up demand than to falling unemployment. In the decade before the pandemic, US unemployment more than halved and euro-area unemployment nearly halved, but inflation remained below target in both economic areas. Impacts Central banks face the dilemma of raising rates too early for growth and too late for inflation, and may struggle to dampen expectations. The threat of a possible revival of the pandemic will help temporarily to cool inflation expectations that have surged in 2021. The trade-off between unemployment and inflation that has been missing for many years may emerge again once the pandemic is finally over.