federal reserve
Recently Published Documents


TOTAL DOCUMENTS

2258
(FIVE YEARS 289)

H-INDEX

50
(FIVE YEARS 5)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Quang-Loc

Dữ liệu này được trích xuất từ CSDL RePEc do Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank ofSt. Louis quản trị và cập nhật hơn 25 năm qua. RePEc Rankings trích xuất cho nhiều hạng mục,trong đó có xếp hạng các đơn vị nghiên cứu - giảng dạy về kinh tế - quản trị, và các nhà nghiêncứu.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Baghestani

PurposeThis study is concerned with evaluating the Federal Reserve forecasts of light motor vehicle sales. The goal is to assess accuracy gains from using consumer vehicle-buying attitudes and expectations about future business conditions derived from the long-running Michigan Surveys of Consumers.Design/methodology/approachSimplicity is a core principle in forecasting, and the literature provides plentiful evidence that combining forecasts from different methods and models reduces out-of-sample forecast errors if the methods and models are valid. As such, the authors construct a simple vector autoregressive (VAR) model that incorporates consumer vehicle-buying attitudes and expectations about future business conditions. Comparable forecasts of vehicle sales from this model are then combined with the Federal Reserve forecasts to assess accuracy gains.FindingsThe findings for 1994–2016 indicate that the Federal Reserve and VAR forecasts contain distinct and useful predictive information, and the combination of the two forecasts shows reductions in forecast errors that are more significant at longer horizons. The authors thus conclude that there are accuracy gains from using consumer survey responses.Originality/valueThis is the first study that is concerned with evaluating the Federal Reserve forecasts of vehicle sales and examines whether there are accuracy gains from using consumer vehicle-buying attitudes and expectations.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (070) ◽  
pp. 1-51
Author(s):  
Anton Badev ◽  
◽  
Lauren Clark ◽  
Daniel Ebanks ◽  
Jeffrey Marquardt ◽  
...  

We analyze the universe of payments settled through the Fedwire Funds Service--the primary U.S. real-time gross settlement service operated by the Federal Reserve--for the period January 2004 to December 2020. We report on trends in payments volume, payments value, balances, and overdrafts, in addition to documenting changes in the behavior of financial institutions transacting via the Fedwire Funds Service.


Significance The continuation of the modest manufacturing downturn follows the recent report of slower third-quarter GDP growth. Despite slower growth, bond markets are challenging an attempt by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to delink tapering from tightening by bringing forward their forecasts for rate increases: futures markets are pricing in two 25-basis-point rate hikes by end-2022. Impacts Equities are at a record high in the United States; providing ongoing support for this, real US bond yields remain in negative territory. The Brent crude oil price is near its highest since 2014; further upside will be limited but it is likely to stay high well into 2022. Germany’s ten-year bond yield, negative since April 2019, has risen by 40 basis points since end-August and will soon turn positive.


2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stan Hurn ◽  
Nicholas Johnson ◽  
Annastiina Silvennoinen ◽  
Timo Teräsvirta

Abstract This paper examines the Taylor rule in the context of United States monetary policy since 1965, particularly with respect to the zero-lower-bound era of the federal funds rate from 2009 to 2016. A nonlinear Taylor rule is developed which features smooth transitions in the first two moments of the federal funds rate. This flexible specification is found to usefully capture observed nonlinearity, while accounting for the well-documented structural changes in monetary policy formation at the Federal Reserve in the last 50 years, and especially in the recent zero-lower-bound era.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clément Fontan ◽  
Peter Dietsch ◽  
François Claveau ◽  
Jérémie Dion

This paper presents a critical analysis of the stance taken on inequality by two central banks since 2015: the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). The analysis is informed by a computer-assisted discourse analysis of how central bankers from the two institutions position themselves when it comes to issues of inequality. We observe that the position on inequality of the two central banks has changed in recent years and continues to do so. We argue that the stance on inequality taken by the BoC and the Fed suffers from a number of both inconsistencies and shortcomings. On the one hand, the BoC and the Fed claim that monetary policy instruments are too blunt to target specific sectors of the economy. On the other hand, with their response to COVID-19, they have demonstrated that such targeting is possible after all.


FEDS Notes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2997) ◽  
Author(s):  
De Pooter Michiel ◽  

Since 2011, the Chair of the Federal Reserve has held post-FOMC meeting press conferences. In a recent survey by the Hutchins Center at Brookings, which canvassed Federal Reserve watchers in academia and the private sector, respondents indicated that they view these live press conferences as the most useful of the Federal Reserve's communication tools, with more than 80 percent of respondents rating the press conferences as "useful" or "extremely useful."


Econometrics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 36
Author(s):  
Chad Fulton ◽  
Kirstin Hubrich

We analyze real-time forecasts of US inflation over 1999Q3–2019Q4 and subsamples, investigating whether and how forecast accuracy and robustness can be improved with additional information such as expert judgment, additional macroeconomic variables, and forecast combination. The forecasts include those from the Federal Reserve Board’s Tealbook, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, dynamic models, and combinations thereof. While simple models remain hard to beat, additional information does improve forecasts, especially after 2009. Notably, forecast combination improves forecast accuracy over simpler models and robustifies against bad forecasts; aggregating forecasts of inflation’s components can improve performance compared to forecasting the aggregate directly; and judgmental forecasts, which may incorporate larger and more timely datasets in conjunction with model-based forecasts, improve forecasts at short horizons.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (060) ◽  
pp. 1-75
Author(s):  
John Kandrac ◽  

Modern central bankers confront a challenge of providing economic stimulus even when the policy rate is constrained by a lower bound. This challenge has led to substantial innovation by policymakers and a proliferation of new policy tools. In this paper, I offer evidence on the efficacy of a new tool known as funding for lending, which provides banks with subsidized funding to make additional loans. I focus on a historical episode from the United States in which the Federal Reserve provided banks with steeply subsidized loans to promote the expansion of credit within their local communities. I show that the cheap funding succeeded in generating more lending by countering banks' excessive liquidity preference. The additional credit benefited the real economy. Local areas enjoyed higher rates of small business formation and more rapid employment growth. Finally, I show that the cost of the subsidy provided by the government was more than offset by the additional payroll taxes paid out of higher wages and salaries. These results suggest that funding for lending programs deserve consideration for the modern central banker's toolkit and demonstrate that certain unconventional tools can offer monetary policymakers the means to pursue more targeted objectives.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document